【新唐人2012年11月21日訊】緬甸，數十年來都是中國的友好鄰邦，最近幾年，緬甸大刀闊斧進行政治改革，與西方互動頻繁。美國總統奧巴馬當選後的第一次外訪，選定了東南亞三國，其中包括緬甸，奧巴馬成為美國史上第一位訪問緬甸的在任總統。奧巴馬還與緬甸反對黨領袖、民主派偶像昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)舉行了會晤。有媒體認為，緬甸對西方國家開放，削弱中共影響，對中共政府是一個重擊。下面請聽專家分析。
緬甸政府因「獨裁」，一直受到西方國家孤立，目前緬甸正從軍事專政走向民主體制。吳登盛去年2月當選緬甸總統，就任後，他推行政治改革和全國和解，隨後，美國和歐洲聯盟等放鬆對緬甸的制裁。
19號，奧巴馬在國務卿希拉里•克林頓陪同下抵達緬甸大城仰光，對緬甸進行了6小時的訪問。與緬甸總統吳登盛的會面中，奧巴馬表明：美方希望緬甸繼續推進政治和經濟改革。
據報導，奧巴馬考慮重新恢復中斷多年的對緬援助項目。按計劃，美方有望給予緬甸1.7億美元援助。不過，美方官員表示，美方援助力度「會視緬甸政府推行政治改革的進展而定」。
獨立評論員邢天行：「在緬甸政府搞獨裁這段期間，她（美）是對她（緬甸）進行封鎖的。那麼，現在緬甸政府她展示出一個融入世界主流這樣一個姿態，尤其是對昂山素季態度的變化，使得緬甸向世界打開了一個新的窗口，美國在態度上是非常積極的。」
奧巴馬與吳登盛會晤後，面見了緬甸全國民主聯盟領袖昂山素季。
獨立評論員邢天行認為，緬甸當局正積極展現政治改革的誠意。
邢天行：「因為奧巴馬在訪問之前和期間，也是釋放了很多的政治犯。所謂政治犯，就是原來反政府的，也就是反對它獨裁的，既然它（緬甸當局）能這樣做的話，它也是給外界展示出它真誠的願望。所以我想，這都是能夠對緬甸這個國家，帶來新希望的一種積極的做法。」
「山東大學」退休教授孫文廣也認為，奧巴馬訪問緬甸能夠促進緬甸的民主化，同時影響中國民眾。
「山東大學」退休教授孫文廣：「當然，中國最後決定（民主化）…是民間，民間是不是覺醒？是不是奮起？反對派是不是能夠團結？這是基本的！」
香港《大公網》評論說，「如今的緬甸已經不是2年多前畏縮改革的緬甸，更不是10多年前被國際社會制裁的只能和中國往來的緬甸。緬甸已經開放了黨禁、報禁，已經用‘民意牌’暫停了中國在緬甸的水電站項目，已經用‘民主牌’從西方吸引來了讚美和援助。緬甸的改革沒有回頭路，昂山素季和反對派當政只是時間的問題。」
邢天行：「如果昂山素季在緬甸的影響力更大，或者說，她已經當政，中共政府必然是會跟她去接觸的。現在之所以沒有積極的採取一個態度，是因為它固有的對昂山素季這樣一個民主派的敵視，尤其是昂山素季在東南亞地區這個影響，有可能對中國人更有一種積極的啟發作用。所以中共這個體制，採取的措施都是抵制民主的。」
《大紀元》新聞網報導，中共政府曾在財力上長期支持緬甸軍政府，並且在緬甸開採自然資源。緬甸對西方國家開放，從而削弱中共影響，對中共政府是一個重擊。
不過也有分析認為，奧巴馬對緬甸的訪問依然存在政治風險，因為緬甸目前的民主轉型雖然發展迅速，但依舊脆弱，目前緬甸軍方對國家依然具有影響力，在緬甸北部，軍方與少數民族——克欽族的戰爭還在繼續﹔發生在今年6月的緬甸佛教徒與穆斯林民眾之間的暴力衝突，曾導致近100人死亡，在確保穆斯林村民的安全方面，緬甸政府被批評措施不夠。
採訪/田淨 編輯/周平 後製/鍾元
Obama’s Visit to Burma – A Heavy Blow to the CCP?
For decades Myanmar has been China’s friendly neighbor.
In recent years the country carried out drastic political
reform and is interacting frequently with the West.
U.S. President Barack Obama’s first overseas trip
after re-election included three Southeast Asian countries.
Myanmar is one of them. Obama is the first U.S. president,
to visit Myanmar during his tenure.
Obama also met with Myanmar’s opposition leader,
idol of democracy Aung San Suu Kyi.
Media stated that Myanmar’s opening to the West
weakens the Chinese Communists Party’ (CCP) impact.
Commentators see this
as a heavy blow to the CCP.
Myanmar government has been isolated by the West
due to its dictatorship.
Currently Myanmar is transitioning
from a military dictatorship to a democratic system.
Thein Sein was elected as a president in February 2011.
After he took office, he introduced a political reform.
Soon the U.S. and the European Union
relaxed sanctions against Myanmar.
Obama and the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived
in Yangon on November 19, for a six-hour visit of Myanmar.
During their meeting with Thein Sein, Obama expressed
the U.S.’ hope for Myanmar to continue promoting the political and economic reform.
Obama is considering to resume assistance projects
in Myanmar, which were stopped for years.
According to plan, the U.S. is expected to provide Myanmar
with a $170 million fund for aid.
However, U.S. expressed, the assistance effort “depends on
the Myanmar government’s progress of political reforms.”
Xing Tianxing, independent commentator: “U.S. blocked
Myanmar during the time when it was ruled by dictators.
Now the Myanmar’ government demonstrated a will
to merge into the mainstream of the world.
Especially with its attitude toward Aung San Suu Kyi,
Myanmar opens up a new window to the world.
The U.S. looks very positively on this."
After his meeting with Thein Sein, Obama met with
the Democratic Alliance of Burma’ leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Xing Tianxing thinks the Myanmar government is actively
expressing its sincerity regarding a political reform.
Xing Tianxing: “Prior to and during Obama’s visit,
the Myanmar government released many political prisoners.
The so-called political prisoners are against the government,
hence against its authoritarian system.
This action showcases its sincere desire to the outside world.
These positive approaches will bring new hope to Myanmar.”
Retired professor of Shandong University Sun Wenguang
also thinks Obama’s visit will promote democratic transition in Myanmar and will also influence people in China.
Sun Wenguang: “Of course it will be the Chinese people
who are the eventual force on China’s democracy path.
Will people wake up and fight for it?
Will the oppositions unite? This is the key!”
HK’s takungpao.com commented, “Myanmar is no longer
the country of two years ago, when it was afraid of reforms.
It’s different than even 10 years ago, when it could only
deal with China due to international community’ sanctions.
Myanmar has lifted up the ban on political party and media,
and has followed its people will to suspend China’s hydropower projects in Myanmar.
It showcased democracy, attracting praises and aid
from the West. Myanmar’s reform is not going back.
Aung San Suu Kyi and the opposition coming to power
is only a matter of time.”
Xing Tianxing: “If Aung San Suu Kyi has a greater influence
in Myanmar, or if she takes power, CCP must deal with her.
The CCP has not actively adjusted its attitude because
of its inherent hostile attitude toward democracy.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence in Southeast Asia
might be a positive inspiration to the Chinese people.
The CCP attitude and actions
are always negative toward democracy.”
According to The Epoch Times, CCP once supported Burma’
military government financially, and develops and uses the county’s natural resources.
Myanmar’s opening to the West weakens CCP’s influence.
Thus the current events seem like a heavy blow to the CCP.
However, some analysts believe there is political risk
for Obama to visit Myanmar.
The democratic transition of Myanmar,
although rapid, is yet fragile.
The Myanmar military still has influence in the country and
continues to battle against minorities in northern Myanmar.
The violent clashes in June 2011, between Myanmar
Buddhists and Muslims led to nearly 100 deaths.
The government was criticized for lack of measures
to ensure the safety of Muslim villagers.
