【新唐人2012年10月23日訊】最近有報導指出，中共黨內有三大勢力，將成為「18大」後中共新領導人習近平的政治幕僚，以輔佐這位「新主」坐穩江山。但也有評論指出，習近平上位後，要麼進行「宮廷政變式」的大變局，要麼將成為中共的「末代皇帝」。在這條艱難險阻的接班路上，習近平要如何做呢？一起來看看。
最新一期的台灣雜誌《卓越》指出，「太子黨」精神領袖、中共元老葉劍英之子葉選寧、和前總書記胡耀邦之子胡德平，以及現任中組部部長李源潮，將成為習近平掌權後的「三大政治幕僚」。
報導說，葉選寧在「太子黨」中，名望極高且影響力大，是習近平政、商關係的重要牽線者。而69歲的胡德平，現任全國政協常委、經濟委員會副主任委員，近年被外界視為「大力推動改革」勢力的代言人。另外一位人物李源潮，據傳在習近平近日前有關政改的主張中，扮演著智囊角色。
美國民主大學校長唐柏橋：「葉選寧、胡德平啊，也都算太子黨，李源潮算半個太子黨。這些人可能是習近平要仰仗的一些對像吧。第二個可能是習近平的地方站，經營了很多年，從福州到福建，到中央、上海，後來又到中央。所以他在每個地方，像福建很多地方，有他治理的人脈，龐大的智庫隊伍吧。」
不過，時事評論員司馬泰分析認為，即使有這套班子，習近平上臺後面臨著的環境卻更為嚴峻。
時事評論員司馬泰：「他得有一套智囊班子幫他提供一個政策，因為前面的話經濟勢頭很好，全球經濟都很火紅的時候，一俊遮百醜，他就可以把很多事情掩蓋過去，但經濟一不好，支票就變成很多空頭支票了，所以這個負擔、帳就落到了習近平身上。」
中國時政評論人李偉東接受《德國之聲》採訪時表示，如果習近平繼續維持現有統治模式，中國將面臨著「辛亥革命式」的革命。習也很可能成為中共的「末代皇帝」。
而在習近平傳出「背傷」的同時，9月7號《路透社》發表獨家報導指稱，習近平與胡德平舉行了私人會談，習一是表示要政改，二是表示和薄熙來並非「友人」，對薄要施以黨紀國法。
《陽光時務》出版人陳平：「這個胡德平本身和他父親一樣是一個具有民主意識的改革思想的人，也是具有希望將中國帶到民主的、繁榮的一個健康社會上的人。」
司馬泰分析，由於受江澤民、周永康「第二中央」的箝制，所以胡溫政策出不了「中南海」，如果習近平把江、周這股勢力拿下去後，會比胡溫執政時有優勢。
司馬泰：「如果把勢力打下去以後後，如果習近平他能夠制定一個好的方針出來，能夠執行，可能會取得一點收穫，但是非常有限的，因為這個共產黨這個體制本身，決定了它到亡黨的時候，所有的力量都會起來維護這個黨的統治。習近平我個人認為他不太有這種魄力，能夠把共產黨整個改革掉，可能（在）把共產黨整個政權拋棄掉以後，意識形態空上禁錮拋棄掉（後），可能他會（有）真正的新政出來。」
自王立軍、薄熙來事件以來，「中共活摘器官」的驚天罪惡在國際社會上頻頻曝光。由於胡錦濤、溫家寶包括習近平對迫害法輪功問題一直採取消極態度，周永康和江澤民等迫害法輪功的「血債幫」，非常害怕失去權力後後遭到清算，想方設法在「18大」權力交接問題上攪局。
因此，有分析指出，「18大」最大的不確定性，表現在中共對法輪功問題的處理上。但不管主動或被動，中共都將解體，並被押上歷史的審判臺。
而到底是做中共的「末代皇帝」還是做戈爾巴喬夫，這個選題得留給習近平來做。
採訪/常春 編輯/王子琦 後製/柏妮
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Analysts Discuss Xi Jinping』s Future as Media Reveals Aides
Recent reports say, three major forces inside the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) will serve to aid Xi Jinping
after its 18th Congress, supporting the new CCP leader
toward a smooth power transition.
Others say Xi must carry out a revolutionary reform after
taking power, to avoid becoming the CCP』s “last emperor”.
What will be Xi』s choice as the next CCP leader
under such a difficult situation?
Let』s review various opinions.
Taiwan magazine, ZhuoYue, published an article saying that,
Xi Jinping will have 3 major political aides after taking power.
They are: Ye Xuanning, the son of Ye Jianying and the spiritual
leader of the Princelings;
Hu Deping, the son of former CCP General Secretary
Hu Yaobang;
and Li Yuanchao, head of the Organization Department
of the CCP Central Committee.
The article says, Ye Xuanning has a high reputation
and a great influence among the Princelings.
Ye acts as an important intermediary between Xi Jinping
and many politicians or business people.
69-year-old Hu Deping is in the standing committee of
the Political Consultative Conference (PCC) and is vice president of the General Chamber of Industry & Commerce.
Hu is regarded by outsiders as a representative figure
of the reformist group.
The last aide, Li Yuanchao, is believed to act as a think-tank
member in drafting Xi Jinping』s recent political reform plan.
[Tang Boqiao, President, New York Democracy University]:
“Ye Xuanning and Wu Deping are princelings,
and Li Yuanchao can be regarded as a half princeling;
they may be who Xi Jinping will mainly depend on in future.
Also Xi has held local official roles for a long time;
working in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, Shanghai
and other local places before being promoted
into the CCP』s central circle.
So he probably has large think-tank groups and strong
networks in those places such as Fujian Province.”
Yet political commentator Sima Tai believes, even with aides
Xi will face an even worse situation after coming to power.
[Sima Tai, Political Commentator]:
”Xi Jinping really needs a good think-tank to help in policies.
Since the global economy was strong in previous years,
many problems could be hidden behind decent-looking achievements in economic development.
However, as economic crises worsen, many promises
have become empty ones, with an unclear prospect.
All these burdens are placed on Xi Jinping』s shoulders.”
In an interview by Deutsche Welle, China affairs political
commentator Li Weidong said, if Xi Jinping sticks to the current CCP』s governing regime,
a new “Xinhai Revolution” may finally break out in China.
If this materializes, Xi will become the CCP』s “last emperor”.
Reuters published an exclusive report on Xi』s recent
『disappearance』, which was allegedly due to a back injury.
The report published on September 7th revealed that,
Xi Jinping had met privately with Hu Deping.
Xi told Hu that, firstly, he will carry out a political reform;
and secondly, that he is not a friend of Bo Xilai and will bring
disciplinary punishment and legal actions against him.
[Chen Ping, Publisher, iSunaffairs Weekly]:
”Like his father, Hu Deping has an innovative mind with democratic consciousness.
Hu is a person who might introduce democracy, prosperity
and a more healthy society into China.”
According to Sima Tai』s analysis, it』d been hard for Hu Jintao
and Wen Jiabao to implement their administrative plans outside Zhongnanhai,
due to interference by the 『Second Central Government』
led by Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang.
If Xi manages to eliminate Jiang and Zhou』s faction, he will
have a large advantage compared with Hu and Wen』s era.
[Sima Tai]: ”If Jiang』s forces are eliminated and
if Xi can present and carry out some good policies,
he might be able to make some progress in China.
However, such improvement may be very limited,
because the CCP』s regime will always protect its power
with all available resources before it dies out.
I don』t think Xi Jinping has the determination to change
the whole CCP regime with his reform.
A real reform will only come out if Xi completely abandons
the CCP』s dictatorship and its restrictions on ideology.”
Since the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai incident, the CCP』s evil
crime of live organ harvesting has been frequently exposed in the global society.
Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping have shown a passive
attitude on the issue of the persecution of Falun Gong.
The Jiang Zemin』s “Blood Debt Faction” and Zhou Yongkang
have done everything possible to interfere with the power transition before the 18th National Congress;
they are scared of being brought to justice
if they lose the power.
Consequently, some analysts say, the biggest uncertainty of
the 18th National Congress lies in how the CCP leaders handle the Falun Gong issue.
In any case, the CCP will finally disintegrate and all its crimes
throughout its history will be brought to justice, whether in an active or passive way.
As for Xi Jinping, he is left with the choice of being either
the “last emperor” of the CCP or the Gorbachev of China.