【新唐人2012年10月3日訊】最近大陸的經濟研究人員，以「黃奇帆和戴相龍的雙簧泄露天機」為標題，撰文說：兩名本來不搭嘎的官員，因為他們兩人的言論有相似之處，有「唱雙簧」的意思。到底是怎麼回事，讓我們一起來了解。
「中國社會保障基金理事會」理事長戴相龍上個月25號在上海表示，養老金確實有缺口，而解決的方式「不是被動的準備錢而是調整這個制度」，據戴相龍介紹，完善養老金制度，可能涉及「延長退休年齡」和「延長養老金繳納年限」等措施。
「北京大學」經濟學院教授夏業良表示，中國養老的問題早在1949年共產黨取得政權之後，就以「只要為社會主義作貢獻，所有的養老由國家（政府）來負責」，向勞動者做出了承諾。
「北京大學」經濟學院教授夏業良：「當年那一代人都是很辛苦的，為建設做出很多。結果，到他們退休的時候，就沒有這樣一筆錢在等著他們。所以只好臨時湊，湊的錢都很少。所以他們那一代的人得到的退休金都非常微薄。」
到了1990年代之後，中共當局才正式考慮建立「養老金帳戶」，由國家、個人和企、事業機構，分別拿出一部分錢，儲存作為「退休養老金」。夏業良指出，「中國社保基金缺口」已是持續很多年的問題。
夏業良：「早在10前我跟經濟學家吳敬璉在一起，就聽他說道，說他在朱鎔基任總理期間就曾經跟他談過這個問題。說那個時候，大概社保基金缺口只有7百多億。而現在這個差口越來越大，它不是幾百億，而至少是幾千億，那麼，甚至上萬億這樣的一個缺口，如果國家不來填補，誰能夠填這麼大一個差距、缺口。」
另一方面，上個月19號，重慶市召集當地68家金融機構和金融監管機構，開了一個「協調聯席會」。與會上，重慶市市長黃奇帆要求重慶市屬的「三大銀行」帶頭，在2015年，「中間業務費」佔總收入的比重要達到30%，至少25%；2020年要達到40%或者45%。
夏業良：「這是完全在瞎指揮。政府過多的干預經濟，就會造成，又回到計劃經濟時代那樣一些怪圈，那樣一個陷阱。中國經濟現在處於一個衰退的狀態，所以說如果再這樣瞎搞下去的話，自然規律經濟、經濟規律一定會發生作用，來懲罰那些自以為是的政府官員。」
目前，大多經濟專家、學者看壞中國的經濟形勢。會議上，黃奇帆為當地金融界「打氣」說，中國比歐美、日本等資本主義國家，多了至少「3個三萬億美元」的調控能力。
《新唐人》特約經濟評論專家傑森．馬表示，「外匯儲備」本身已經發行，不能拿回國內再用。
《新唐人》特約經濟評論專家傑森．馬：「它不能把外匯儲備三萬億拿來還他政府債務，經濟上是不允許這麼做。以前它這麼做過，事實上是有很大爭議的。他變相的是在憑空的印鈔票，沖稀中國的人民幣的價值，換句話說，就造成人民幣通貨膨脹。」
傑森．馬指出，美國等西方國家，財政的60％負債，是因為支付百姓的各項福利支出所造成。而中共當局用於百姓福利的支出非常低，是在中共官員「三公吃喝」的情況下欠債40％。
傑森．馬：「這時候他舔不知恥的說，按人家的標準，我還能再多欠三萬億。換句話說，他整個貪污的份量，三公的消費、政府的浪費，國內維穩的透支還能再大一些。第三個就是，現在的這個國有企業，把他賣給私人企業，他本身機構臃腫、效率低下，失去壟斷地位，這些企業是一個負債，它禁不起任何自由市場競爭的衝擊。」
大陸經濟研究人員馬宇認為，不知誰捅破了誰的肥皂泡，恰好洩露了天機。其一，錢可以有，但不是給你們老百姓的，你們交的養老金最好也別往回拿﹔其二，錢真的沒有，那三件「 防彈衣」(外匯儲備)都是假的，是紙糊的！
採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/鍾元
China’s Pension, Foreign Exchange Reserve Becomes ATM.
Recently, economic researchers in Mainland China
published articles saying
two officials who seem not to have anything to do with
each other – Huang Qifan and Dai Xianglong,
seem to be giving a two-man show.
Let’s take a look at what is going on.
On September 15th, China Social Security Fund Council
chairman Dai Xianglong expressed in Shanghai that
there really is a gap in retirement pension,
and the way to solve it is not to prepare money
passively but to adjust the system.
According to Dai, improving pension system may involve
extending retirement age and extending the number of years one pays for pension.
Peking University School of Economics professor
Xia Yeliang expresses,
after the CCP obtained political power in 1949,
it promised to workers that as long as they contribute to social democracy,
all retirement expenses will be the
responsibility of the nation.
Xia Yeliang: “People in that generation all had a
very difficult time, they did a lot for development,
but at the end, when they are retired,
there is no fund waiting for them,
so they can only try to gather money here and there,
the money they get is very little, so the retirement fund they received is very meager.”
The CCP only started to officially consider the
establishment of the “pension account”.
The nation, individuals and enterprises all take out
some money as retirement pension.
Xia Yeliang points out, China’s social security fund gap
is a problem that has been continuing for years.
Xia Yeliang: “As early as ten years ago, I was with
economist Wu Jinglian,
and I heard him say he had talked to Zhu Rongji about
this problem when Zhu was in office.
Said at that time, social security fund gap was only
more than seven billion, but now this gap is bigger.
It is not a few billion, but at least a few hundred billion.
So, if the nation cannot fill this gap, then who can fill
such a large difference, such a large gap.”
On the other hand, on September 19th, Chongqing City
held a coordination meeting with 68 financial institutions and financial regulators.
At the meeting, Chongqing City Mayor Huang Qifan asked
Chongqing’s three largest banks to take the lead,
that the intermediate operating expense must reach at least
25% of total earnings in 2015, and at least 40% by 2020.
Xia Yeliang;” This is completely giving orders in vain.
Government intervening in economics too much will create
that weird loop, that sort of trap during the era of planned economy.
China’s economy is now in a state of decline,
so if they continue to give orders blindly,
then the natural laws of economy must take affect and
punish those presumptuous government officials.”
Currently, many economic experts and scholars look badly
upon China’s economic trend.
At the meeting, Huang Qifan tried to “pump up”
local financial institutions and said compared to Europe,
United States, Japan and other capitalist countries,
China has at least nine trillion more U.S. dollars of regulatory capacity.
New Tang Dynasty special economic commentator
Jason Ma expresses,
foreign exchange reserves has been released and
cannot be taken back to China to use.
Jason Ma: “It cannot take the three trillion worth of
foreign exchange reserves to pay back the government debt, economically it is not allowed.
It has been done before, in reality it was very controversial,
it is printing cash with no backup, diluting the value of RMB.
In other words, it created inflation of RMB.”
Jason points out, 60% of debt in western countries
such as the United States is created by welfare and various expenses paid to the people,
but the welfare expense for the Chinese regime is very low,
40% of debt are created due to CCP officials’ personal squandering of public funds.
Jason: “Now they shamelessly say according to the standard,
I can still owe three trillion.
In other words, the amount of corruption, personal
squandering of public funds, government’s waste,
and stability maintenance overdraft can be a little bit more.
The third is, the state-owned enterprises are sold
to private enterprises now.
Its own institutions are overstaffed, inefficient,
have lost monopoly position,
these enterprises are a liability, it cannot withstand the
impact of free market competition.”
Mainland economic researcher Mayu believes,
it is not clear who busted whose bubble, but coincidentally it leaked heavenly secrets.
For one, it is ok to have money, but it is not for the citizens,
and it is better if you don’t take back the pension fund you’ve paid.
For two, there is really no money, those three
“bullet proof jackets” (foreign exchange reserves) are all fake, is glued together with paper!