【新唐人2012年10月3日訊】過去半年，因為「薄熙來醜聞」引發的中共權力交接危機後，全世界都想知道：中共還能維持政權多久？最近的美國《外交學者》雜誌評論指出，如果中共不立刻放棄極權統治，向民主轉型，等待它的只有蘇聯式崩潰一條路。

《外交學者》網站10月1號的文章指出，儘管北京宣佈十八大將在11月8號召開：中共最高領導人也如釋重負的終於就處理薄熙來，和由誰進入最高層，達成了一致；人們也可以預計，中共會在未來幾個月，極力打造一個團結的形象，來繼續維持它的中央集權專制，但是人們已經看到中共來日無多。

文章認為，中共內部的凝聚力和領導力的信心已經被撼動，其中的因素包括：薄熙來事件、深度腐敗、改革停滯、經濟放緩、社會動盪加劇、與鄰國及美國關係惡化等。作者說，任何對此懷疑的人都去看一看中國的微博，感受一下普通中國人對他們政府的看法就明白了。

美國加州「克萊蒙特麥肯納學院」政府學教授裴敏欣是這篇文章的作者。他在文章中說，中共和其他極權統治一樣，面臨兩條道路：一是，蘇聯的「自我毀滅道路」，另一條則是像台灣和墨西哥的「自我改造道路」。但是，他說，中共是一個極權主義政黨，它們控制軍隊、司法、政府和經濟的程度，遠遠超過專制形式的國民黨和墨西哥的革命制度黨，因此，也就更難擺脫原有的形式。

文章還指出，世界上最長壽的一黨專制政權是前蘇共的74年，中共已經在中國執政63年，也進入了老年。如果它不立即進行政治改革，去掉極權化並把共產黨轉型，「蘇聯式的崩潰」將是它唯一的未來。

時事評論員張傑連：「全世界看清了中共真的失去了它的執政基礎，完全被中國人民不信任。大家可以看到一個事件一出來，很快的就是質疑聲。尤其是最近發生的薄熙來這個事件，把百姓對中共的唾棄以及不信任推向了最頂點。」

張傑連指出，中共背後是一個非常邪惡的獨裁專制，用一套黨文化來愚民和對民眾洗腦，扼殺中華五千年傳統和文化。一個民族失去了文化和傳統，它就失去了生存的根，所以中共的運作機制是毀滅民族的，中共體制內的人也是這種機制的犧牲品。

而旅美的「中國和平民主聯盟」主席、「中國民主大學」校長唐柏橋認為，現在世界上包括中共體制內越來越多的學者達成的共識是，中共再不放棄這個極權的統治，它崩潰起來的後果比前蘇聯還要嚴重。

美「中國和平民主聯盟」主席唐柏橋：「實際上只有一條出路了，就是放棄這個一黨專制，然後重新跟國際社會，跟民間接軌，實行民主制度。我估計兩年之內18大開完以後，如果他們沒有動作的話，不向全國人民承諾放棄一黨專制，我估計它就會被人民推翻，國際社會也不允許它們現在這樣子胡作非為下去。」

唐柏橋表示，如果中共主動放棄極權專制，雖然這個體制和政權完了，但，那些像前蘇聯戈爾巴喬夫，或者葉利欽那樣的個人，還能夠自救，他們將來在政治舞臺上還可以扮演角色，但是，如果他們不放棄，面對人民革命時，他們就是罪人。

文章還指出，中共黨員超過八千萬，大多數人入黨是為了利用它提供的金錢利益，他們本身已經成為一個跟中國社會脫節的特定利益集團。中共應該明白，當遭遇政權危機的時候，他們會像蘇共的幾百萬黨員一樣注定要叛逃，蘇聯的命運等待著中國共產黨。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/王明宇

US Media: Soviet-Style Collapse Awaits Totalitarian CCP

In the past six months, the Bo Xilai scandal endangered the

leadership transition of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Since then the public want to know: How long can the CCP regime be sustained?

A commentary published by “The Diplomat” magazine

said that if the CCP does not give up its totalitarian rule immediately,

and allow transition into democratic governance,

a Soviet-style collapse is its only future.

On October 1, 『The Diplomat』 published an article,

entitled “Is China’s Communist Party Doomed?”

It mentioned the CCP’s announcement

of convening its 18th congress on November 8.

It said, “The party’s top leaders seemed to have agreed

on what to do with the disgraced former Chongqing

party boss Bo Xilai and on whom to promote into the

Politburo and its more powerful standing committee.”

“China’s ruling elite will do their best in the next few months

to project an image of unity and self-confidence…

convince the rest of world that the next generation of leaders

is capable of maintaining the party’s political monopoly.”

That is, unfortunately, a tough sell.

The article said, “Confidence in the party’s internal cohesion

and leadership has already been shaken by the Bo affair,

endemic corruption, stagnation of reform in the last decade,

a slowing economy, deteriorating relations with neighbors

and the United States, and growing social unrest.”

“Anyone who is unconvinced of this point should take

a look at Chinese Weibo (or microblogs) to get a sense of what ordinary Chinese think of their government.”

The article’s author is Minxin Pei, a professor on governance

at the California-based Claremont McKenna College.

Pei pointed out that the one-party regime has two paths:

1. “The Soviet route to certain self-destruction.”

2. “Taiwan-Mexican route to self-renewal and transformation.”

Pei wrote, “it is a totalitarian party, not an authoritarian party.”

“The CCP controls the military, the judiciary, the bureaucracy,

and the economy to a far greater extent than the Kuomintang and the Revolutionary Institutional Party of Mexico did.”

“Extricating a totalitarian party from a state is far more difficult.”

The article said that the world’s most durable

one-party regime was the 74 years of the Communist Party of the former Soviet Union.

“Having governed China for 63 years, … the CCP also ages”.

“Without taking this intermediate step immediately,

i.e. 『the de-totalitarianization』 and 『the transformation』, the

CCP may find that a Soviet-style collapse is its only future.”

Critic Zhang Jielian: “The whole world has

seen that the CCP’s ruling legitimacy has gone.

It has been completely distrusted by the Chinese people.

For example, once an event erupted, the people responded

by raising doubts. The Bo Xilai incident is a typical one.

It has driven the Chinese civilians’ spurning

and distrusting the CCP to its farthest point.”

Zhang Jielian comments that the CCP is running

based on a very evil autocratic system.

It uses its “Party culture” to brainwash the Chinese, and

has wiped out 5,000-year’s of traditional Chinese culture.

For a nation, losing its culture and traditions

amounts to losing its root of survival.

Thus, the CCP’s operating mechanism

was designed to destroy the Chinese nation.

People within the CCP ruling system are also

victims to its mechanism, Zhang Jielian thinks.

Tang Baiqiao, Chairman of China Peace & Democracy

Federation, reveals that

a consensus has been reached among the global scholars,

including those inside the CCP.

He says these scholars believe that the totalitarian

CCP will face a more serious collapse than the former Soviet Union Communist regime.

Tang Baiqiao: “In fact there’s only one way out for it, to give

up dictatorship, and introduce a democratic government.

I estimate that we’ll see it being overthrown within two years

after its 18th congress, if it still walks it’s the old path.

In reality, the international community

won’t continue to tolerate its criminal actions.”

Tang Baiqiao says that if the CCP leaders proactively give up

its totalitarian rule, it will help end the system and the regime.

And these leaders will gain a chance for self-renewal,

like Mikhail Gorbachev or Boris Yeltsin did.

They can still play an active role

in China’s future political arena.

However, if they still hold on to totalitarianism, they

will become sinners in the face of the people’s revolution.

In his article, Minxin Pei wrote that the CCP “may have

over 80 million members, but most of them join the party to exploit the pecuniary benefits it provides.”

“They themselves have become a special interest

group disconnected from Chinese society.”

Pei predicts, “the CCP should know that,

like the millions of the members of the former Soviet

Communist Party (CPSU), … when the CPSU fell,

there was not a single instance of loyalty.

Party members did not come to the defense

of the regime, and such a fate awaits the CCP.”