【新唐人2012年8月29日訊】目前，中共的18大正緊鑼密鼓的準備著，「北戴河會議」後再次傳出中共常委由9人變為7人，在中共政壇動盪和政權風雨飄搖的時刻，中共紅二代——薄熙來的命運，已成為外界關注的焦點。日前有親近中國的日本媒體披露，中共在「北戴河會議」上，已經擬定開除薄熙來黨籍，取消他的人大代表資格，薄熙來有可能被追究刑事責任。外界推測，薄熙來應該會被處以死刑，否則，會給中共的現行領導和下界核心以及中國人留下後患。
中國共產黨章程第38條中規定，嚴重觸犯刑律的黨員必須開除黨籍。據日本《朝日新聞》報導，「北戴河會議」除了擬定將開除薄熙來黨籍，還圍繞「人大代表有不被逮捕的特權」討論，打算取消薄熙來的人大代表資格，薄熙來有可能被追究刑事責任。
北京時政觀察人士華頗認為，薄熙來一定會被處以死刑，他說中共現在的局勢和76年非常相似，如果不置薄熙來於死地，他就會像當年的鄧小平一樣，習近平就會是第二個華國鋒。
北京時政觀察人士華頗：「只開除黨籍，我看不可能，而且薄熙來的下場會非常非常慘。不管胡溫、習也好，絕不能給薄熙來東山再起的機會，不把他置於死地的話，薄熙來這些左派的人士也是手毒心狠的，如果他要是起來的話，胡溫的下場非常慘，因為胡溫與薄熙來的關係，還不如毛澤東和鄧小平的關係。」
時政評論家唐柏橋認為，開除薄熙來的黨籍和取消他人大代表資格，是為追究刑事責任鋪路。他說，薄熙來至少應該處以死刑，不過在和江派爭奪18大席位的博弈中，胡溫可能在處理薄熙來的問題時會做出一些讓步。
時政評論家唐柏橋：「按道理說他應該追究他很多的責任，比如說貪污腐敗、行賄受賄、然後 濫用職權、私設酷刑、甚至活摘器官的一些事情、人體展的事情，它們不會追究，中共除非倒臺了，不倒臺它不會追究。」
唐柏橋指出，如果不果斷處死薄熙來，遭殃的不只是胡溫一派，還會殃及百姓，他說薄熙來只要還有一口氣就會伺機反撲，胡溫家族會比江青更慘。
唐柏橋：「中國民眾對這個政權更不會有信心，同時邪惡它也沒有得到有效的懲治，然後這種公安政法系統權力更加囂張，因為他們覺得他們的後臺很硬的，可以萬無一失，更胡作非為，活摘器官也好、人體展也好、酷刑也好、對付高智晟也好，公安就想…原來以為他要倒臺了，結果發現現在沒有，又原形畢露，那中國人又要遭殃了。」
據《朝日新聞》分析，開除薄熙來黨籍，是力挺薄熙來的前國家主席江澤民與胡錦濤之間較量的結果，不過看來江澤民完全沒法顯示他的存在感了，佔據優勢的胡派，在調整新的最高領導層人選上，將保持強大的影響力。報導指稱，胡錦濤力爭將9人政治局常委削減到7人，胡溫人馬將佔絕對優勢。
7月12號，華頗對18大「入常人選」作過預測，現在傳出的名單和他的預測不相上下。華頗表示，江澤民利益集團是人民期待胡溫清算的對像，「入常」的機率不會太大。他說，當時他估計俞正聲當選機率只有40%。
華頗：「俞正聲的事，大家覺得他入常是屬於一種調和，我覺得將來這個7常委，給這種調和性的人物入常的機率倒是不大，而且他俞正聲還是屬於紅二代這些人，他不可能把這些人太多的塞入常委，如果真的要這麼多的話，就跟清末的皇宗內閣一樣。」
華頗還表示，胡溫在任時，江澤民安排的人馬班底，使得胡溫處處受阻，無所作為，人們對日益擴大的貧富之差心懷怨氣，現在薄熙來死黨可能反過來利用這點給胡溫施加壓力。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元
Bo Xilai Subject to Expulsion and the Death Penalty?
The 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is being prepared as high profile.
The Party’s Politburo Standing Committee reportedly
once again cut to seven seats from the previous nine.
During the political storm, how the CCP regime will handle
Bo Xilai’s case has been closely followed by the world.
Japan’s pro-CCP media revealed that the Beidaihe meeting
intends to expel Bo who is likely to be criminally punished.
Analysts speculate that Bo may face the death penalty.
Otherwise, he would be a threat to the incumbent and
oncoming CCP top leadership and to the Chinese people.
The CCP’s Party Constitution stipulates that Party members
who seriously violate criminal law be expelled from the Party.
Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported that the Beidaihe meeting
plans to expel Bo Xilai and remove his status of deputy to the CCP’s National People’s Congress.
The Japanese media expected that
Bo might be held criminally liable.
Beijing-based political observer, Hua Po, thinks that
Bo Xilai will definitely be sentenced to death.
He said that China is now in a political situation
very similar to that was in 1976.
If Bo was not purged, he would become the 2nd Deng
Xiaoping. Xi Jinping would become the 2nd Hua Guofeng.
Hua Po: “I don’t believe they』ll only expel Bo.
I think Bo Xilai will end up very, very miserable.
For Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao or Xi Jinping,
all three shouldn’t leave Bo any chance to rise again.
The leftists under Bo are also very wicked and cruel.
If Bo is not killed and later stages a comeback,
Hu and Wen would face a very miserable end.
The relationship between Hu & Wen and Bo is not as good
as that between Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping."
Critic Tang Baiqiao comments that the move to expel Bo and
to remove his deputy eligibility is intended to give Bo criminal sanctions on the next step.
Tang Baiqiao says that Bo should
at least be given death penalty.
Tang Baiqiao estimates that Hu & Wen may yield to an extent
in handling Bo’s case.
This is to contend for the power bargaining at the 18th Congress
with Jiang Zemin’s faction.
Tang Baiqiao: “Naturally, Hu Jintao should have investigated
Bo’s many crimes.
These range from corruption, bribery, abuse of power, secret
tortures and the involvement of live organ harvesting and sale of human bodies.
I don’t believe the CCP will investigate and punish Bo for his
roles in the live organ harvesting and human body sales.”
Tang Baiqiao said if Bo cannot be decidedly purged, the
victims in the near future will not only include the factions of Hu & Wen, but also Chinese civilians.
Tang remarked that Bo will surely await his chance
as long as he is alive.
In that case, the families of Hu & Wen would be
subject to more dire suffering.
Tang Baiqiao: “The Chinese public won’t trust this regime
any more. But the evil force hasn’t been effectively punished.
And the police system, the Political & Legislative Affair sector
will stray into more arrogance.
This is because they know they have very strong backing,
that will encourage them to commit more and greater evils.
Like live organ harvesting, human body exhibits, tortures,
the suppressing of Gao Zhisheng, and so on.
At that time, the Chinese people will face more disasters."
The Asahi Shimbun said Bo Xilai’s expulsion is a result of
the contest between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
Now it looks that Jiang has completely lost the capability of
showing his existence.
Hu’s faction has held advantages, will show great impact
by adjusting the CCP top leader teams.
The commentary stated that Hu Jintao tried to cut from nine
seats to seven seats in the Politburo Standing Committee.
The factions of Hu & Wen will reign supreme, according to
Japanese media.
This July, Hua Po predicted a list of candidates for
the CCP Politburo Standing Committee.
His forecast is nearly equal to the name list that
has been unofficially leaked.
Hua Po says the Chinese publics expect Hu& Wen to
legally punish the interest groups under Jiang Zemin.
So Jiang’s men see little chance to be put on the name list.
Hua Po estimates that Yu Zhengsheng only has
a probability of 40% to enter the top leader group.
Hua Po: “The public view Yu Zhengsheng』s promotion to
the Politburo Standing Committee as a concession.
But I don’t think he has such an opportunity as it has only
seven seats and the quota is too limited.
Yu Zhengsheng is the 2nd generation of the revolutionary
cadres.
If people like him are all put into the top leader team, that
would become the Royal Cabinet of the late Qing Dynasty."
Hua Po said, Jiang Zemin’s top-level leadership arrangement
has blocked the way of Hu & Wen.
The political inaction of Hu & Wen and the popular discontent
with the widening rich-poor gap may be used by Bo Xilai’s buddies to pressure Hu & Wen, Hua Po analyzed.