【新唐人2012年8月21日訊】中共舉行「北戴河會議」之前，廣東省委書記、團派大將—-汪洋，曾身穿迷彩服進行實彈射擊，被外界解讀為有所指。日前海外媒體放風說，「北戴河會議」醞釀了18大的新版—-「7常委」名單，這一組合將會出人意料。另外，中央軍委也將有大變動，團派希望選派汪洋等得力幹將，進入中央軍委核心領導層。下面請看本臺記者的報導。

有海外媒體分析說，胡錦濤在「北戴河會議」前，可能就已經考慮了3個不同的18大佈局方案。

第一方案是，胡錦濤在18大後繼續擔任中央軍委主席。

第二方案是，胡錦濤完全退出中央領導層，團派很可能會因此而衰退。

而第三個方案則綜合了前兩個方案的利弊，就是，胡錦濤不尋求連任中央軍委主席，但是胡錦濤將提名團派人員進入中央軍委核心領導層。在新的「7常委」組合中，汪洋將接任中紀委書記，並且介入軍隊事務，而現任國務院副總理李克強，則將兼任中央軍委副主席。

時事評論員邢天行：「這個確實是出乎一般人的預料和想像了。那麼就目前來講，如果說，它（中共）要解決它的政治危機，任何一個變數來講，其實都不能說完全不可能。」

邢天行指出，汪洋一直被外界認為是改革派，所以有些對中共還抱有希望的人，希望看到汪洋能夠進入中共權力核心。

邢天行：「那麼在這種情況下，尤其中共在充滿危機的時候，它打汪洋這個牌，我覺得是有很多的意圖在裡邊。因此，第三種方案能不能比前兩種方案更可行，這個我是持懷疑態度的。」

中共18大將在最近的兩個月內召開，外界普遍認為，中共黨內各派也利用這一段時間不斷對外放風，以便更有利的卡位18大。但中共一貫的黑箱操作，讓18大權力佈局變得撲朔迷離。

《中國事務》雜誌總編輯伍凡：「北戴河會議結束了，是不是會議結束了，達成最終的決議了，還是不清楚。17大本來只有7個人，7個常委，最後那幾個鐘頭才決定增加2個常委。」

從事國際和中國問題研究的獨立學者鞏勝利，也對《新唐人》表示，中共的黨內鬥爭非常普遍，而且沒有任何法制可講。

中國問題獨立學者鞏勝利：「黨內鬥爭是常態。因為為權力你死我活，這基本上是歷史上共產黨沒有成立開始，就是從陳獨秀、王明就開始鬥起，那現在更是尖銳激烈到白熱化的程度。我覺得可能不到最後那一天，是沒有辦法定下來的。」

在此之前，江澤民派系也曾放風，炒作江系人馬進入18大政治局常委。但隨著江澤民被傳成為植物人，王立軍、薄熙來事件的衝擊，江系日漸衰落。江系「血債派」為延續迫害法輪功政策而長期把持的第二權力中心——中央政法委，也已經被消權。而最近審判的「谷開來案」，更是讓案件背後的活摘法輪功學員器官、販賣屍體等驚天罪行曝光於海內外。因此，有分析認為，胡錦濤借谷開來案震懾江系，將會主導中共18大的人事佈局。

採訪/田淨 編輯/李謙 後製/王明宇

Hu Jintao’s New Plan Features Wang Yang

Before CCP leaders’ Beidaihe meeting, Guangdong Party

Secretary Wang Yang appeared in media, dressed in military uniform.

Recently foreign media reported the Beidaihe meetings

produced a new list of CCP Committee members,

which will come as a surprise to the public.

In addition, CCP’s Central Military Commission

will also see significant personnel changes.

The Hu faction hopes that Wang Yang and others enter CMC.

Some foreign media released news that

before Beidaihe meeting,

Hu Jintao prepared three different plans,

all for personnel change after CCP’s 18th National Assembly.

The first plan will allow Hu to continue serving as Chairman of

Central Military Commission.

The second option completely excludes Hu Jintao from the central

leadership, bringing potential threats to the Youth-League faction.

A compromise between the first two, the third plan allows

Hu Jintao to nominate people on his side into central leadership, while he himself will step down.

Among the new 7 Standing Committee members, Wang Yang

will serve as Secretary to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection,

partly in charge of military affairs, and current Vice

Premier Li Keqiang will serve as vice chairman of CMC.

Political Critic Xing Tianxing: “This is indeed outside of

public expectations. But to resolve its political crisis, CCP might possibly take such measures.”

Xing Tianxing also pointed out how Wang Yang has been

regarded as a reformist,

so some people are hoping he will enter CCP’s power core.

Xing Tianxing: “At this time of crisis,

CCP uses Wang Yang for special purposes.

I am still skeptical whether the third plan is more feasible.”

CCP’s 18th Assembly will take place in two months.

CCP’s different factions will grasp this time to release its messages, all to their own advantages.

CCP’s black-box operation, however,

makes its power struggle ever more confusing.

Wu Fan, Chief Editor of China Affairs magazine:

“Although Beidaihe meeting has ended, it does not mean CCP officials have reached a final resolution.

At its 17th Assembly, CCP decided to enlarge the Standing

Committee from 7 to 9 members in the last two hours.”

Gong Shengli, independent scholar for Chinese studies,

said to NTD how CCP’s inner struggles are common practice,

and that there is no legal procedures within CCP.

Independent scholar Gong Shengli: “Inner struggle is CCP’s

common practice, from its early period between Chen Duxiu and Wang Ming, up to today’s heated conflicts.

I believe it will not stop, until the last day of CCP’s life.”

Earlier, the Jiang Zemin faction spread rumors that officials

from Jiang’s faction would enter Standing Committee after 18th Assembly.

The Jiang factions wither daily now, with Jiang Zemin

purportedly in a vegetative state, as well as the Wang Lijun-Bo Xilai scandals.

Jiang’s factions manufactured the Central Political and

Law Commission as a second power center for the purpose of persecuting Falun Gong.

Now the center’s power has been reduced.

Recent prosecutions of Gu Kailai triggered another round of

public concern over CCP’s organ trafficking and body factories,

especially those targeting Falun Gong practitioners.

Some analysts believe that Hu Jintao took advantage of

the Gu Kailai case to deter the Jiang faction,

and to control CCP’s personnel arrangement

at its 18th Assembly.