【新唐人2012年7月11日訊】日前，解放軍北海、南海艦隊高層人事調動引發外界關注。原北海艦隊政委王登平轉任南海艦隊政委，北海艦隊航空兵政委白文奇兼任北海艦隊政委，在南海亂局未解、瓦良格航空母艦服役在即的當口，外界分析，這次軍中高層異動，很可能是胡錦濤準備在18前打一仗，來震懾周邊小國的威脅，和徹底清洗江派腐敗的勢力。
王登平今年兩會期間高調接受訪問，有關他所謂「絕不讓國土從我們手中丟失」的言論，被視為中共軍方鷹派的標籤。日前王登平轉任南海艦隊政委，他上面的表態，也屢屢被媒體翻出。
另外，原北海艦隊航空兵政委兼任北海艦隊政委，這也是北海艦隊歷史上首位有航空兵背景的主官。
曾在山東任教的歷史學教授劉因全認為，在江澤民統治的歲月裡，中國實行賣國政策，失去了很多土地，現在胡錦濤正式掌握了軍權，他認為，這次軍內高層異動，可能是準備打仗。
劉因全：「王登平出任南海政委，表示中國要在南海採取強硬措施。另外白文奇他原來是航空兵出生，現在擔任北海艦隊司令員，說明中共要把航空母艦要配備起來，因為航空母艦主要是用來載飛機、用於海上航空，所以中共有可能要加強海上力量，如果這樣做呢，我想他可能是想打仗。」
劉因全還表示，在18大以前打一仗，是一個震懾周邊小國威脅的機會。劉因全說，因為美國現在忙於大選，如果和越南這種與美國沒有結盟的小國打仗，美國不會參與，很容易取勝。
劉因全：「打贏了以後有甚麼好處呢？就可以打一嚇二，就是打了越南之後…可以和菲律賓和日本的談判中，對方就會老老實實的把南海那個地方的南沙群島,,，如果等到以後美國和越南結盟了再打就晚了，就對中國不利。」
劉因全還說，在18大前打一仗，對胡錦濤洗清自己的名聲和清洗江派的腐敗勢力也很有好處。
劉因全：「另一個方面，通過這一仗可以讓那些立了功的將軍陞遷，比如最近調到南海艦隊去的王登平，讓這些信得過的人立了戰功以後，他們進入軍委也能強化出生於平民的、立了戰功的這些將領在中央中的地位，取代江澤民那些腐敗將軍。軍隊腐敗搞好了之後，同時也可以影響地方，便於解決地方官員的腐敗問題。」
《中國事務》雜誌主編伍凡認為，最近東盟會議各國對南海的挑戰，對中共造成很大的威脅。但是軍隊佈署到甚麼程度，會不會打仗，大家拭目以待。
伍凡：「現在好像中共的軍事行動在做準備，北海艦隊這麼調到南海艦隊，這個人員調動，加強南海艦隊的人員，並且在10號吧， 。」
王登平18歲參軍，入伍42年，歷任戰士、軍政治部幹事、總政宣傳部局長，周克玉上將秘書、海軍裝備部政委等職，直至海軍北海艦隊政委。 2002年王登平還作為艦隊副指揮，率領「 青島」和「太倉」兩艦500名官兵參加中國海軍首次環球航行。 2002年，王登平環球航行歸來，立即被晉升為海軍少將，2011年晉升為海軍中將軍銜。
根據慣例，北海艦隊政委兼任濟南軍區副政委，中將軍銜。每年「八一」前後都有授銜儀式，預計，白文奇會被授予中將軍銜。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/蕭宇
Military Transactions for War?
Recent high-level personnel mobilization among the
North Sea and South Sea Fleets of the People’s Liberation Army, has attracted close attention from outside.
Wang Dengping, former political commissar of the North Sea
Fleet, was assigned to the same position in the South Sea Fleet;
Bai Wenqi, political commissar of the North Sea Fleet Air Force,
became political commissar of the North Sea Fleet as well.
With the South China Sea mess unsolved,
the Varyag aircraft carrier is about to go in service,
outside analysis of the high-level transaction in military terms,
could mean that Hu Jintao is ready to fight a battle before the 18th National Congress Conference.
This could be with a view to countering any threat from
surrounding countries, and to thoroughly clean out Jiang’s faction.
Wang Dengping had been interviewed in high profile during
the two sessions this year,
his so-called “never let the homeland lose in our hands",
Has become a motto of the Communist Party hawks faction.
Recently, Wang Dengping was transferred as
political commissar of the South Sea Fleet.
His above speeches were reported again by the media.
In addition, Bai Wenqi, former North Sea Fleet Air Force
Political Commissar is concurrently political commissar of the North Sea Fleet.
He is also the first officer with an aviation background
in the history of the North Sea Fleet.
Liu Yinquan, a former history professor in Shandong Province,
believes during Jiang Zemin’s ruling, he implemented a
traitorous policy, and lost a lot of land.
Now Hu Jintao formally grasps the military.
Liu thinks this high-level transaction within military,
may be preparation for a fight.
Liu Yinquan: “Wang Dengping became political commissar of
the South Sea Fleet, which shows China will take tough measures in the South Sea.
Bai Wenqi was originally in aviation, now he serves as
commander of the North Sea Fleet, indicating the CCP will be equipped with aircraft carriers.
Aircraft carriers are mainly used to carry aircraft at sea.
The CCP may try to strengthen the sea fleet power.
If so, I think (Hu) might want to have a fight."
Liu Yinquan also said that a battle before the 18th National
Congress Conference is an opportunity to shock peripheral countries.
Liu said the United States is now busy with the general election,
if (the CCP) had a fight with a small country like Vietnam which
has no alliance with the United States, the US would not participate, and it would be easy to win.
Liu Yinquan: “What are the benefits of winning?
It can threaten others. After a battle with Vietnam…
in negotiations with the Philippines and Japan,
the other party will behave and give the Spratly Islands in the South Sea to China.
If it (CCP) waits until the United States and Vietnam become
an alliance, it will be too late, This will not be good for China."
Liu Yinquan said, a war before the 18th National Congress
Conference will be very good for Hu Jintao to seek
forgiveness over his reputation and clean out Jiang ‘s faction.
Liu Yinquan: “In this battle, (Hu) could promote generals
with contributions.
For example, Wang Dengping recently transferred to
the South Sea Fleet.
After the generals Hu trusts made contributions,
they could enter the Central Military Commission
and consolidate the position of these generals born civilians,
he could then replace the corrupt generals of Jiang Zemin.
After army corruption is removed, it could affect local areas,
and it will be easy to solve the corruption of local officials."
Wu Fan, chief editor of Chinese Affairs magazine said
recent challenges from ASEAN meeting countries on the
South Sea, have become a great threat to the CCP.
To what extent the army will be deployed,
whether to fight or not, we will wait and see.
Wu Fan: “It seems the CCP’s military is preparing.
Transaction from the North Sea Fleet to the South Sea Fleet,
strengthening the staff of the South Sea Fleet.
On July 10, it will hold a sham naval battle in the East Sea.
The outside has given the CCP lots of pressure.”
Wang Dengping joined the army when 18. He has served
in the army for 42 years as a soldier,
the officer of the Army Political Department,
General of Political Propaganda Department,
the Secretary of General Zhou Keyu, political commissar of
the Armament Department of the Navy, and political commissar of the North Sea Fleet.
In 2002, Wang Dengping as deputy commander,
led two ships- Qingdao and Taicang,
and 500 officers and soldiers to participate in the first voyage
around the world of the Chinese Navy.
After returning, Wang Dengping was immediately promoted
to Rear Admiral. In 2011 he was promoted to Vice Admiral.
By convention, the political commissar of the North Sea Fleet
also serves as vice political commissar of Jinan Military Region, having the rank of vice admiral.
There will be a conferment ceremony annually on August 1.
It is expected that Bai Wenqi will be conferred the rank of Vice Admiral.