【新唐人2012年7月10日訊】將要確定十八大後政治局常委人選的「北戴河會議」，馬上就要召開了，中共各派為此展開的內鬥也將趨於白熱化。和政治局常委的最終人選相比，本屆政治局最終的人數似乎更加重要。是7還是9？人數的變動就是胡錦濤和江澤民等「血債派」之間的角力。胡錦濤會推出怎樣的人選呢？
十八大前夕，各界盛傳胡錦濤打算恢復7常委制，而且團派很可能以4：3佔據優勢。不過江派對此也作出一系列反撲，除了放風預測江派人馬佔多數的常委人選名單，《人民日報》海外版7月3號頭版刊登中共智囊胡鞍鋼文章，為「9常委」制度唱讚歌。7、9輿論造勢之爭如同拉鋸。
時事評論員林子旭認為，這次胡錦濤應該會力爭將常委人數由9人減少到7人。因為如果政治局常委的椅子依然是9張，張德江或張高麗等江派人馬加入的可能性就會增加，胡錦濤團派想要在政治局常委會佔據多數席位就會非常困難。
時事評論員林子旭：「胡錦濤當政十年，他是吃盡了政治局內部席位不足之苦。目前胡錦濤的人馬相對來講入常的呼聲較高，但是人數較少，所以這次胡錦濤會力爭將常委人數由9人減少至7人，這樣胡錦濤的人馬才有可能在新一屆政治局常委會佔據優勢。」
如果胡錦濤佔上風，將常委人數確定為七人的話，那最終的人選又將是誰呢？
《胡錦濤傳》作者文思詠、任知初認為，在胡錦濤的腹案中有5名團派成員，都將進入新一屆的中央政治局常委。他們年齡都在67歲以下，現任政治局委員和書記處書記。分別是： 國務院常務副總理李克強；中組部長李源潮；中宣部長劉雲山；廣東省委書記汪洋；和近期炙手可熱的中央辦公廳主任令計劃。
李克強是胡錦濤在十七大就看好的人選；李源潮橫跨上海幫、太子黨和共青團派等派系，很早就是胡錦濤比較信任的部下；汪洋早就受溫家寶青睞，這三人進入政治局常委，基本上懸念不大。
而劉雲山是太子黨，父親是薄一波的下屬。他受江澤民重用，93年被提拔進京任中宣部副部長，2002年升任中宣部長，跟主管宣傳的江派常委李長春走得很近，也因為迫害法輪功被國際人權組織列為重點追查對像。但最近有消息說，他向胡錦濤靠攏。
林子旭指出，劉雲山由於背景複雜，不一定能接下李長春的位子。
林子旭：「習近平、李克強已經是鐵定入常了，王岐山入常也已經是沒有甚麼爭議了。剩下四個席位胡錦濤必須奪得三個才能確保自己的絕對權力。汪洋、李源潮、劉雲山入常應該爭議不大，但是劉雲山背景複雜，不能說是胡錦濤的嫡系人馬。這樣的話呢，最後一個席位就顯得非常的關鍵。」
五人中最後一位令計劃，一直都是胡錦濤的幕僚長，現在擔任中辦主任，炙手可熱，但令計劃目前還不是政治局委員，像十七大習近平那樣由中央委員直接躍升為政治局常委，屬於破格，在中共歷史上罕見。但林子旭認為，胡錦濤會盡力為他創造機會。
林子旭：「第七個人我覺得很有可能就是令計劃，胡錦濤為了確保自己權力的絕對穩固，他必然要考慮隔代接班的問題，雖然難度非常大，但是胡錦濤會力爭讓令計劃入常。」
時事評論員汪北稷指出，應該用逆向思維來看「7常委」還是「9常委」，以及胡錦濤團派和江派勢力互鬥的人選放風宣傳。
時事評論員汪北稷：「它這個中共江山就是在所謂的『紅二代』，高幹子弟，太子黨手裡拿著，然後給了團派作勢的一點空間。如果說，軍隊和黨的根本權力，財政的根本權力，人事的根本權力，在誰的手裡面，誰就是老大。他可能不是常委，但他的權力超過九個常委。所以這個歸根到底是中共這個黨文化，權力機制的不透明。」
汪北稷指出，中共製度中這種由上往下，表面上的制約，實際上沒有制約。中共在十八大的人選上可能創新，但是它的核心不會改變，這種非民選「寡頭政治」體制，已經導致激烈的內鬥，最後甚至可能導致軍事政變。
採訪/常春 編輯/尚燕 後製/柏妮
Hu’s name list: Will it be seven or nine?
The Politiburo Standing Committee candidates will be
confirmed at the 18th National Congress at Beidahe meeting.
As the meeting draws near, infighting intensifies with the
comparing of names and the numbers within the Standing Committee, whether it be 7 or 9?
The change of numbers reflects the battle between Hu
Jintao and Jiang Zemin and his bloody group.
The key questions remains, which candidate
will Hu propose !?
http://forum.dwnews.com/threadshow.php?tid=962179&extra=page%3D1
Before the 18th CCP National Congress, much discussion
took place concerning the numbers of Politburo Standing Committee.
Hu planned to recover the seven standing committee system.
With the Youth League group taking advantage of a ratio of 4:3.
Jiang’s group however, made a series of comebacks.
People’s Daily Overseas published an article written
by Hu Angang on July 3rd, with Hu praising the nine standing committee system.
This whole process is seen as a tug of war between members.
Commentator Lin Zixu thinks, Hu Jintao must strive to reduce
the number of standing committee members from nine to seven.
If the number remains nine, the chance of Zhang Dejiang or
Zhang Gaoli (both from the Jiang faction) taking position,becomes greater.
This would make things much more difficult For Hu and
his Youth League group, to maintain a majority.
Lin Zixu: “Hu Jintao has fought to take power for ten years.
Due to a lack of support within the Standing Committee in the past,
It is imperative Hu now strives to reduce the numbers from 9
to 7 giving him the advantage and the majority.
If Hu does gain the advantage of confirming the number of
members in Politburo Standing Committee, who will be the final candidates?
Wen Siyong and Ren Zhichu, the authors of “Hu Jintao’s
Biography” think there are five people from the Youth League group listed in Hu Jintao’s plan.
All candidates suggested are below the age 67, are also
members of the Politburo and secretaries of the Secretariat,
including: State Council Executive Vice Premier Li
Keqiang, Minister of the Organization Department of the CC.
Also Central Committee Li Yuanchao, Minister of Propaganda
Department of CCP Central Committee Liu Yunshan,
Guangdong CCP Secretary Wang Yang, and Central Office
Director Ling Jihua, who recently became a hot politician.
Li Keqiang was chosen by Hu Jintao in the 17th CCP National
Congress, Li Yuanchao is central to the Shanghai group,
princelings and Youth League group and has became a trusted
subordinate of Hu Jintao, very early on.
Wang Yang was chosen very early by Wen Jiabao. There is little
suspense on the entering opportunity of these three people.
Liu Yunshan belongs to the princelings, and his father was
the subordinate of Bo Yibo.
He was promoted by Jiang Zemin, becoming Vice Minister of
the Propaganda Department to the CCP Central Committee in 1993 and Minister in 2002.
He has a close relationship with Li Changchun, who is in charge
of propaganda in the standing committee,he’s also a member of the Jiang group.
Liu Yunshan is a key suspect according to the international
human rights organizations due to his persecution of Falun Gong.
However, much evidence shows recently that Liu moved
closer to Hu Jintao.
Lin Zixu said, Liu Yunshan may not take the position of Li
Changchun due to his complex background.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
Lin Zixu: “Xi Jinpang and Li Keqiang must enter the standing
committee, and there is little suspense on the entering opportunity of Wang Qishan.
Hu Jintao must take three of four remaining seats to ensure
his absolute power.
There is also little suspense on the entering opportunity of Wang Yang, Li
Yuanchao and Liu Yunshan.
However, Liu Yunshan has a complex background.
He does not belong to the loyalists of Hu Jintao.
Thus, the last seat is very important.”
Ling Jihua, the last one within the five and also the
Chief of Staff of Hu Jintao, now serves as the Central Office Director.
Ling Jihuang is a hot politician, but he is not a Politburo member.
It will be difficult for him to jump into the Politburo Standing
Committee directly from Central Committee, like Xi Jinping did.
This phenomena is very seldom seen in the history of CCP.
However, Li Zixu thinks Hu Jintao will try to create
opportunities for him.
Lin Zixu: “From my perspective, the 7th person may be Ling
Jihua. Hu Jintao wants to ensure his absolute power and he
must consider the inter-generational successor.
Hu Jintao will try to put Ling Jihua into the Politburo Standing
Committee, although it will be very difficult.”
Commentator Wang Beiji said, the reverse thinking should
be used to understand the arguments between the seven
standing committee system and nine standing committee system.
Also, other news has escalated from the fight between
Youth League group and the Jiang Zemin group.
Commentator Wang Beiji: “The resource of the whole country
is controlled by 『Red II’ or princelings.
They do not leave much space for Youth League group.
Thus, whoever controls the fundamental power of the army,
CCP, finance and personnel, becomes the boss.
Even if the eventual leader is not a standing committee
member, he will nonetheless take the greatest power.
The root cause of CCP culture, its mechanism,
is based upon complete control.”
Wang Beiji quoted,” this top-down constraint within CCP
system, is just something on the surface and is useless.
CCP may make some changes on the election of the 18th CCP
National Congress, but its core will never be changed.
This non-elected oligarchy system has led to intense infighting,
it may finally lead to a military coup.