【新唐人2012年7月2日訊】日本《外交學者》雜誌發表文章指出，大陸中央政法委書記周永康的繼任者，很可能會在中共18大上被降級，不能進入政治局常委。常委人數會從9人變為7人，主管宣傳的李長春的繼任者也將不再進入常委。分析人士認為，不管中共如何調整，都不可能放鬆筆桿子、槍桿子，只有解體中共，中國才會有根本的變化。
日本《外交學者》雜誌6月29號的這篇文章談到，中央政法委掌控全國的警察、司法、情報系統，權力過大。政法委主導的「維穩機制」已經給社會帶來非常大的負面影響，大陸民眾對此越發感到憤怒。
文章分析，中共總書記胡錦濤與他的繼任者習近平出於對官員腐敗的擔憂，可能已經在政法委的問題上達成一致。最近，習近平負責的中央黨校出版物《學習時報》批評政法委的「維穩處理模式」，矛頭指向周永康。這意味著中共總書記將收回對維穩系統的控制，中央政法委書記周永康的繼任者將被降級，不再進入政治局常委。
今年2月，前重慶公安局長王立軍出逃美國領事館申請避難。隨後，周永康培植的中央政法委書記接班人、前重慶市委書記薄熙來被免職調查。山東維權人士陳光誠在歷盡政法委的迫害後，4月底傳奇般逃進美國大使館，要求溫家寶查處山東政法官員的犯罪行為。
6月初，又有湖南六四鬥士李旺陽在警察看守下離奇死亡，當局號稱李旺陽是自殺，但因為漏洞太多，而受到普遍質疑，各界民眾組織了聲勢浩大的活動，要求當局徹查真相。
這一連串事件揭開政法委系統的重重黑幕，社會各界取消政法委的呼聲日漸高漲。在大陸各省最近的黨委換屆中，政法委書記一職不再像以往一樣由省公安廳長擔任。
時事評論員汪北稷：「所以呢，海外普遍對中共政治局18大常委最終9變7、政法委這個角色淡化掉、不進入常委，這個推論是有一定依據的。」
汪北稷指出，中共也在試圖為了維護統治而進行改頭換面，但是這只是換湯不換藥，改變不了中共作惡的本質。
汪北稷：「中共不可能改變靠筆桿子和槍桿子來統治社會、來鎮壓人民的本性。所以它無論是把政法委這個角色換上換下，還是把『社會治安綜合治理管理委員會』改名字改得很拗口，改來改去沒有意義。」
《外交學者》雜誌的這篇文章還談到，因為常委人數需要是單數才好進行表決，政法委書記這一職務的降級意味著常委人數會從9人變為7人，主管文化宣傳的繼任者也將不再進入常委。這導致入常人選的洗牌會更加猛烈，中共的最高權力移交存在巨大的不確定性。
汪北稷：「說到它在9大常委裡面去掉兩個，去掉管宣傳、管筆桿子這個常委，也是一個表面動作。因為它沒有改變它的本性。就是說，現代社會的政黨不應該干涉很多東西，不應該去幹涉意識形態，也不應該去幹涉一個社會的文化發展、存在、相互之間的繁榮，包括信仰、宗教這些。」
汪北稷強調，中共實行的是全面的壟斷和集權，在民眾的反抗下，它的統治危機越來越大。中共被迫做一些表面的修改，製造要放鬆槍桿子、筆桿子的假象，但實際上這只是中共的謊言，變換花樣來繼續控制民眾。
採訪/常春 編輯/李謙 後製/李若琳
Japan Media: Knew Zhou Yongkang’s Position Would Be Lowered
Japan’s Diplomat magazine predicted that
the successor of Zhou Yongkang, chief of
the Political-Legislative Affairs Committee of the Chinese
Communist Party would probably be downgraded.
The CCP Politburo Standing Committee would be shrunk
to 7 seats from 9 and the successor of Li Changchun,
propaganda chief could also be expected to be kicked out of
the Politburo Standing Committee.
Commentators say, no matter how the CCP changes
its appearance, the regime will not relax its control over crackdown and propaganda.
Only the disintegration of the CCP can bring real change
to China.
The Diplomat magazine reviewed on June 29 that
the PLAC was overpowered for"controlling the police,
domestic intelligence, the procuratorate and prisons."
“The security-first preserving stability policy" has created
“perverse effects" for the Chinese who have become increasingly angry.
The article thinks that Hu Jintao and his successor, Xi Jinping,
“may have reconciled over the need to reform the CCP".
The official publications of the Central Party School headed
by Xi recently criticized the PLAC’s “handling of preserving stability" and Zhou Yongkang.
This implies that the power of preserving stability
would be taken back by the CCP general secretary
and the position of Zhou’s successor would
be downgraded “to the Politburo level".
In February, Chongqing’s ex-top cop Wang Lijun fled to
the US consulate to seek asylum.
Subsequently, Zhou Yongkang’s chosen successor Bo Xilai,
ex- Party chief of Chongqing, was ousted and investigated.
Next ensued the successful escape of Chen Guangcheng
from the PLAC’s persecution of he and his family in Shandong.
Chen entered the US embassy at the end of April,
while openly calling on Wen Jiabao to investigate
and punish the crimes committed by Shandong PLAC.
In early June, 6.4 Tiananmen protest activist Li Wangyang
died suspiciously in custody in Hunan.
Local authorities’flawed allegation that Li death was suicide
aroused wide public suspicion.
Afterwards, large-scale mass activities were staged
demanding that authorities investigate Li’s death.
A string of incidents kept unveiling inside stories of the PLAC,
leading to public voices’growing louder of removing the PLAC.
In CCP’s recent provincial power transfer,
the position of PLAC’s Party chief was no longer
held by the CCP’s top provincial cop.
Wang Beiji (Critic): “Overseas, it’s generally believed that
the Politburo Standing Committee is expected to be cut down to 7 seats from 9 at the CCP’s 18th Congress.
And the role of the PLAC would be diluted and downgraded.
Such an understanding is reasonable, I think."
Wang Beiji points out that the CCP is trying to have
a make-over in order to maintain its rule.
That is just a change in form but not in content, which
Remains unchanged the CCP’s nature of committing evil deeds, says Wang.
Wang Beiji: “It’s impossible for the CCP to change its nature
of controlling China and the people by suppression and propaganda.
No matter how it positions the PLAC, or how it changes
the name of Central Committee of Public Security Commission, the actions are just not making sense."
The Diplomat magazine states, lowering the position of the
PLAC chair implies that the
standing committee would be shrunk to 7 members from 9,
as it needs to have an odd number of positions,
and the successor in charge of propaganda would also be
kicked out of the standing committee.
That suggests a “possibility of even more significant
reshuffling of leadership portfolios" and
“the tremendous uncertainty surrounding the power transfer
to the so-called Fifth Generation of Chinese leaders."
Wang Beiji: “Even the dropping of security and propaganda
from its standing committee is a floating action.
This is because its nature is still unchanged.
In other words, a normal political party is supposed not to
interfere with a lot of things,
including ideology, the existence and development of
the culture, and its prosperity, individual’s faith and religions."
Wang says that the CCP exerts an all-sided monopoly and
centralization over China, and the growing mass resistance has inflated its rule crisis.
Under these circumstances, the regime has to resort to
some surface change by creating illusions like
loosening controls over crackdown and propaganda,
Wang says.
But it is actually the CCP’s lies that reduce
its ways to continue its control of the people.