【新唐人2012年2月9日訊】「國際貨幣基金」組織IMF在最近發出警告說，歐元區債務危機引發的世界經濟衰退，可能導致中國經濟增長率大幅下降4個百分點。經濟專家分析認為，這個怵目驚心的數據造成的影響，不僅將衝擊中國的經濟，還會動搖中共的政權。
「國際貨幣基金」組織IMF在週一發表了《中國經濟展望報告》。報告中說，中國今年的增長率預測由去年9月的9%下調到8.25%，已經是沒有甚麼疑議的了。而歐洲債務危機將帶來全球經濟震盪，這一動盪如果產生連鎖反應，將會使中國2012年8.2%的增長預期下降4個百分點。
「國際貨幣基金」組織於今年一月也曾發表報告指出，世界經濟總增長降低1.75%的情況很可能會發生，如果這樣，中國經濟增長將降低4個百分點。
美國「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛表示，如果IMF預想成真，說明中國經濟的「硬著陸」是無法避免的。
美國「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛：「造成的後果是不可想像的，對整個世界經濟的衝擊是非常巨大的，但是最怵目驚心的將是中國國內。」
陳志飛分析，造成對中國經濟的巨大影響，將包括失業率的衝高，通貨膨脹的飛速上升，借貸系統，整個銀行系統的崩潰。
美國《華爾街日報》報導，惠普國際評級(Fitch Ratings)週二表示，在全球經濟增速放緩的同時，中國的房地產市場以及銀行業都可能對中國經濟構成威脅。而中國經濟出現「硬著陸」是對2012年全球經濟的最大潛在風險。
英國廣播公司BBC中文網援引《每日電訊報》7號刊登的一篇文章說，因歐元區債務危機影響導致對亞洲貨物需求量的減少，上海港1月份的航運量大幅萎縮，同比下降一百多萬噸，高達4%，預示著中國經濟將進入寒流。
台灣「中華經濟研究院」研究員吳惠林教授向《新唐人》表示，中國經濟跨下來，台灣將受害最深。
台灣「中華經濟研究院」研究員吳惠林：「台灣跟中國的經濟聯繫的程度非常的密切，所以會受到連帶的影響。應該大家對這種事情，不要太過一廂情願，期望他們還能夠維持過去，讓那個所謂的規劃持續，那是不太可能的。」
此外，陳志飛還認為，最大、最根本的衝擊可能會體現在對中國政體的影響。因為GDP的增長在中國是最大的政治任務，是中共用來維持一黨專政的唯一的或者是最強有力的藉口。
美國「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛：「如果這個藉口，或者說給它統治帶來合法性的一個經濟發展的盛宴徹底結束，以這種急剎車硬著陸的方式結束的話，將要帶來的政治動盪，群體事件以及全民要求共產黨撤出歷史舞臺的呼聲，將會使歷史重新書寫這一頁。」
大陸媒體對於「中國可能面臨經濟增長猛下跌4%」的警告，到目前為止並沒有報導。
新唐人記者劉惠、李靜、黎安安採訪報導。
IMF: China’s Economic Growth Will Drop By 4%
IMF (International Monetary Fund) recently warned that
the global recession, triggered by Euro-zone’s debt crisis, will lead to a 4% decline of China’s economic growth.
Economic experts think the impact will be not only on China’
economy, but will also shake the Chinese communist regime.
IMF published “China’s Economic Outlook" on Monday.
The report stated that China’s growth forecast this year
was adjusted from 9% to 8.25%.
The European debt crisis will bring a global economic shock.
The ripple effect will make China’s economic
growth drop by 4% from 8.2%.
IMF issued a report in January, pointing out that the world
economy’overall growth is likely to decrease by 1.75%.
If so, China’s economic growth will be reduced by 4%.
New York City University’s Professor of Economics,
Chen Zhifei, commented on the issue.
Prof. Chen thinks, if IMF’s prediction becomes a reality,
China’s economic “hard landing" is unavoidable.
Prof. Chen: “The consequences are unimaginable
and the impact on the world economy is huge.
But the most shocking consequences
would be inside China."
Prof. Chen analyzed that the huge impacts include increasing
unemployment rate, rapid rise in inflation and lending system, and the collapse of the banking system.
US Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday,
about HP’s international credit rating (Fitch Ratings).
It said, with the global economic slowdown, China’s housing
market and banking sector are both likely to pose a threat to China’s economy.
China’s economic “hard landing" in 2012,
is the greatest potential risk for the global economy.
BBC.CN cited Daily Telegraph’article about the Euro-zone’s
debt crisis leading to reduction of the demand for Asian goods.
It stated that Shanghai port’s shipping in January shrunk
dramatically, with a drop by more than a million ton.
This is indicative that China’s economy
will enter cold times.
Professor Wu Huilin from China Economic Research Institute,
Taiwan, said Taiwan will be affected by China’s economy fall.
Prof. Wu: “Taiwan has very close economic ties with China,
and both are interlinked.
So we should not expect these ties to survive.
It is unlikely to maintain that so-called planning policy."
Besides, Prof. Chen believes that the largest and the most
fundamental impact may be felt by the Chinese regime.
GDP growth in China is the biggest political task and CCP’s
(China’s Communist Party) only or most powerful excuse to maintain the one-party dictatorship.
Prof. Chen: “If a “hard landing" brings down this excuse,
or feast that gives the legitimacy of its controlling status, this will lead to a political turbulence.
There will be mass protests demanding that the CCP exits
the stage of history. This in itself will rewrite the history."
The mainland media did not report anything on the warning
of “China’s economic growth may decrease by 4%."
NTD reporters Liu Hui, Li Jing and Li Anan.
