【新唐人2011年12月15日訊】近期大陸房地產市場交易量陷入長時間低迷，房地產價格持續下降，當局對房地產調控的成敗，攸關明年中國經濟是否「硬著陸」的宏觀命題，持續的樓市調控，對正在下滑的中國經濟無異是雪上加霜，如稍有放鬆又可能會讓持續20個月的調控功虧一簣。2012年房地產政策走向牽動中國百姓的神經。

根據中國房地產指數系統12月1號公布的數據，全中國百城價格指數的全樣本數據顯示，2011年11月，全國100個城市住宅平均價格為每平方米8,832元，與10月相比下降0.28%，連續第3個月環比下降，且降幅有所擴大。

房價飆升，百姓自然怨聲載道，威脅社會安定。但房價跌得快，殺傷力可能更大，因為這場房地產調控的成敗已經不只是關乎行業自身，而且攸關明年中國經濟是否「硬著陸」的宏觀命題。

傑森：「因為整個中國經濟就是三輛馬車——出口、投資、加上內需，中國的內需和投資換句話說都最後變成房地產上了，出口，明年因為歐洲和美國經濟不會立刻復甦，所以說整個出口增長速度持續9個月下降，也就是說房市就成了它的救命稻草了。三輛馬車，出口這輛肯定不行，而投資和內需這兩輛馬車，全掛在房地產這輛馬上了。」

其次，在房地產下跌的背後，牽引的是中國實體經濟下滑，地方財政緊張。有越來越多的人預期，房地產政策將出現鬆動。

傑森：「明年，是不是中共就會放寬對房地產的控制﹖這個呢，很有可能！明年，牽扯到中共政治換屆的問題，換屆過程中，下屆政府肯定不願意背一個…再次被充大的房地產的泡沫，所以在政治權衡下，很可能房地產政策還會處在一種要放鬆不鬆、要緊不緊的這種猶豫的狀態，使得整個房地產市場，處於一種飄忽不定的狀態。」

資料顯示，2010年的房地產投資，在國內生產總值(GDP)中的直接比重超過12%。不過，房地產還影響40至50個左右的關聯產業，包括水泥、鋼材、玻璃、傢俱電器以及裝飾材料等等，還有就業。

房地產還攸關金融業的安全，儘管中國前銀監會主席劉明康在房貸壓力測試後，曾樂觀的表示，「房價下跌40%銀行抗得住」，但資料卻不樂觀，截至2010年底，全中國主要金融機構房地產類貸款的比重超過20%，銀行貸款已佔房地產開發資金的70%。

近期已有部分商業銀行指出，銀行和房企能夠承受房價下跌20%-30%帶來的衝擊，但銀行和企業更加關心房價下跌20%後會不會誘發恐慌性拋售﹖拋售現象出現後，有關方面能否採取有效措施控制連鎖反應﹖一連串的問題都顯示：2012年房地產走勢將巨幅影響中國經濟的興衰。

新唐人記者常春、林平、黎安安採訪報導。

2012 Real Estate Policy Vital to China’s Economy

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China’s recent real estate transactions present long-term

downturns, and housing prices continue to drop.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities’regulation

of real estate has become a vital factor in determining

if China’s economy will suffer a hard landing in 2012.

The sustained regulation on the real estate market has

worsened the declining economy,

and at the same time a slight ease up may make

the 20-month’s of regulation efforts been done in vain.

The CCP regime’s 2012 real estate policy

makes Chinese civilians worry.

The China Real Estate Index System released data

on December 1, showing that

during November the average price sampled from 100 cities

in China was at RMB 8,832 (USD $1,386) per square meter, down by 0.28% from October.

This is a fall for the third consecutive month,

with a larger decrease.

While soaring housing prices might naturally incite unrest

among the populace, and threaten social stability,

housing prices’plunging may be more destructive.

The issue of regulating real estate has not only influenced

the sector in and of itself,

but has also become a vital factor in determining

if China’s economy will suffer a hard landing in 2012.

NTDTV Commentator, Jason Ma: “The three major driving

forces for China’s economy are: exports, investment and domestic demand.

Now in reality, both China’s domestic demand and investment

have been hung up on the real estate.

In 2012, the economy in Europe and the U.S.

won’t recover immediately.

While in China, the export growth rate has continued

to drop for nine months.

In other words, the real estate has become its lifesaver.

That is to say, among these three major drivers,

exports definitely fail,

and both the investment and the domestic demand

are tethered to the real estate."

Again, the decline in the real estate pulled down China’s

actual economy, causing local financial constraints.

More and more people forecast that an easing real estate

policy will be implemented.

NTDTV Commentator, Jason Ma: “Will the CCP regime

ease the control over the property next year? Most likely!

Next year the CCP authorities will have personnel change

for new-term government,

which is certainly unwilling to be burdened

with a recharged real estate bubble.

So after weighing in politics, the real estate policy will probably

be in hesitation between easing and tight control.

That’ll put the entire property sector into a state of uncertainty."

Data shows that real estate investment in 2010 accounted

for over 12% of GDP value.

However, the real estate also affects 40 – 50 related industries,

including cement, steel, glass, furniture, appliances and decorative materials, as well as employment.

Real estate is also relevant to the safety of the financial sector.

Although the former Chairman of China Banking Regulatory

Commission Liu Mingkang, optimistically claimed,

“40% housing price drop will still keep China’s Banks

from making losses."

However, the actual data does not reflect such optimism.

By the end of 2010, real estate loans accounted for

over 20% in loans of major financial institutions in China.

70% of the real estate develops funds come from the bank loans.

Some commercial banks recently pointed out that

banks and the real estate developers can withstand the hit

brought by a 20%-30% drop in housing prices.

However, are the banks and other enterprises concerned

with whether or not the 20% drop in housing price would induce panic selling?

And after the occurrence of sell-off, would the authorities

be able to take effective measures to control the chain reaction?

A series of questions indicate that the moving trend of

the real estate in 2012 will produce huge impact on China’s economic rise or fall.

NTD reporters Chang Chun, Lin Ping and Li Anan.