【新唐人2011年7月19日訊】廈門「遠華走私案」的頭號疑犯賴昌星，逃亡加拿大10多年，在江澤民傳出病危後，他被遣返中國的可能性驟增。香港媒體評論，賴昌星是胡錦濤的絕妙棋子。

《星島日報》18號說，賴昌星上週已經由預審中心，移送到加拿大卑詩省的菲沙地區懲教中心（Fraser Regional Correction Centre）羈押。21號則是有關執行遣返令的聆訊，如果落實遣返，一般相信最快會在25號執行。

賴昌星的走私和腐敗案，不僅涉及中共軍方高層人物，還涉及江澤民班底人馬。

政治評論家林保華：“因爲到了這種高層的話，要不要整的時候都是和上面的派系鬥爭有關係。當時主要是朱鎔基，因爲朱鎔基管經濟的嘛，他認爲這個走私對經濟（有影響），當時作爲一 個大案來處理。朱鎔基要整，那麽整的這個對像，賈慶林是江澤民的人，所以江澤民當然要保護啊。”

而《蘋果日報》18號發表文章《賴昌星是胡錦濤絕妙棋子》，文中說：“北京盛傳胡錦濤在四月得知老江病危後，馬上命令外交、司法等部門向加拿大施壓，在中方承諾不判死刑的條件下馬上遣返賴昌星。”

林保華認爲，賴昌星被引渡的可能性比較大。

林保華：“江澤民的政敵像胡錦濤共青團這一派，要成功的把賴昌星引渡回去他要做到兩點。一點是會給賴昌星優惠的條件，比如説回來不判你死刑，讓你講更多的話。現在據説賴昌星有一點心動了。第二個就是説，加拿大政府從人權考慮，如果賴昌星講很多話可能給他優待，加拿大把他放回去也不必背上人權的包袱。”

《蘋果日報》分析，賴昌星命運涉及三位政治局常委，就是政協主席賈慶林、中央紀律檢查委員會書記賀國強、和國家副主席兼「王儲」習近平。江澤民病重已讓「上海幫」失去奧援，如果賴昌星被遣送回國，抖出當年的秘密，咬出相關的當事人，團派定然在十八大人事佈局中佔上風。

不過也有評論說，賴昌星被遣返可能引曾慶紅出手，或者政治局常委中的中紀委書記賀國強、中央政法委書記周永康的干預。林保華表示，江系人馬的阻擋程度和他的涉案程度有關。

林保華：“如果是江澤民涉案的話，因爲江澤民現在已經很老了，快死了，其他人不涉案的話，其他人就不一定會去阻擋這個事情。但如果其他人也涉案的話，如果賀國強和習近平也涉案的話，那當然他們就會有很多動作來阻擋。”

《蘋果日報》的文章說，胡錦濤這一招是要招安江系人馬，為第六代領導鋪路。不過，不管結果如何，中共的權鬥風暴勢必進一步影響中國 內政外交。

新唐人記者常春、尚燕、郭敬採訪報導。

The prime suspect of the Xiamen Yuanhua Smuggling Case,

Lai Changxing, who fled to Canada over a decade ago,

will more likely be repatriated to China after news of

Jiang’s illness.

Hong Kong’s media suggest that

Lai is a special political leverage for Hu Jingtao.

Sing Tao Daily said on July 18 that

Lai Changxing had been transferred from a pre-trial center to

Fraser Regional Correction Centre in Canada last week.

The hearing of deportation case will be held on July 21.

If confirmed, execution will come before 25.

Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,

Lai’s smuggling and corruption case not only involves

the top military officials in Chinese Communist Party (CCP),

but also Jiang Zemin’s family members and cronies.

Lin Baohua (Political Critic): For officials as high as them,

it’s inevitable that they have connections with top CCP camps.

Since the times of the CCP’s ex-premier Zhu Rongji,

who was mainly in charge of the economic policies,

also thought that smuggling might affect the economy.

Therefore, he treated smuggling cases seriously.

The main target for Zhu Rongji’s move is Jia Qinlin,

one of Jiang’s cronies and was under Jiang’s protection.

Apple Daily published on July 18 an article titled,

“Lai Changxing: A political leverage for Hu Jingtao”, saying

“When informed of Jiang’s illness in April, Foreign Ministry

and Justice departments immediately pressured Canada,

asking for Lai’s repatriation,

on the conditions it was death-penalty-free.

Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,

Lin Baohua suggests they are more likely to extradite Lai.

Lin Baohua: “For Jiang Zemin’s political rival, such as Hu’s

Communist Youth League, to successfully extradite Lai

they have to be sure of two things: first, a favorable condition,

such as death-penalty-free or freedom of speech;

secondly, to Canada, if Lai benefits from freedom of speech,

it also releases Canada from the burden of human rights.”

Apple Daily suggests that Lai connects with three

CCP Politburo members: the President of CPPCC Jia Qinglin,

Secretary of Central Commission for Discipline Inspection

He Guoqiang, and the CCP Vice President Xi Jinping.

Jiang’s illness weakens his camp’s power;

if Lai is sent back to China and reveals past secrets,

Hu Jintao’s clan will surely prevail

in the coming 18th CCP conference.

Some critiques also suggest that the return of Lai will result

in Zeng Qinhong’s move,

or interference from CCP Politburo secretary He Guoqiang

and CCP Politics and Law Committee secretary Zhou Yongkang.

Lin Baohua assumes that Jiang’s clan relies on

its extent of involvement to interfere.

Lin Baohua: “If Jiang Zemin was not involved in the case,

since he is too old to live any longer, his clans may not interfere,

provided they were not involved at all.

But if they were, along with He Guoqiang and Xi Jinping,

then they’ll employ more moves to interfere with this case.”

Apple Daily suggests that Hu Jintao’s move aims to recruit

in preparation for the 6th generation of CCP leaders.

CCP’s internal power conflicts will affect China’s politics

and diplomacy, regardless of the result of the transition.

NTD reporters Chang Chun,Shang Yan and Guo Jing