【新唐人2011年2月9日訊】韓國和朝鮮2月8號在板門店舉行上校級軍事會談，這是朝鮮去年11月炮擊韓國延坪島以來的首次會談。韓國總統李明博2月1號表示，如果朝鮮表現出誠意，必要時可以舉行韓朝首腦會談。另一方面，中日釣魚島爭端也趨向緩和。而近日，日本與俄羅斯就北方四島爭執再度升高。

去年韓國天安艦沉沒事件和朝鮮炮擊延坪島，引發朝鮮半島局勢高度緊張。韓國去年共舉行48次大規模軍事演習，其中包括美國航空母艦在內的韓美聯合演習。

今年元旦以來，朝鮮多次表達了儘快消除朝韓對抗狀態、恢復對話的意願。此後，朝、韓、美三方都下調了備戰級別。

李明博總統則在元旦講話中說，他相信新的一年能夠實現朝鮮半島和平。去年12月29號李明博表示，朝鮮半島無核化問題只能通過六方會談的外交途徑解決。

今年1月19號，中美首腦胡錦濤與歐巴馬總統舉行會談之後，在發佈的中美聯合聲明中，首次針對朝鮮鈾濃縮問題表示關切，並支持朝韓對話。

蔡建教授（復旦大學朝鮮問題專家）:「很多人認為，現在朝鮮和韓國的背後，是中國和美國，所以就認為，朝鮮和韓國能不能夠改善關係，要看它背後的兩個大國，是如何對這個問題能不能達成一致。」

中美共同強調朝鮮半島無核化，受到韓國政府歡迎。中國人民大學國際關係學院教授時殷弘指出，這是自2009年以來，中國第一次間接批評朝鮮。而在中美首腦會談後，朝鮮提議舉行三年多來首次韓朝國防部長會談。韓方接受提議，並要求朝鮮表現誠意和道歉。

2月8號，韓國和朝鮮在邊界停戰村板門店，舉行上校級軍事工作會談，商討了更高級別軍事會談的議題和日程安排等問題。

2009年4月安理會譴責朝鮮試射火箭，朝鮮宣佈退出六方會談、將重啟核設施建設，並驅逐聯合國核查人員。隨後，朝鮮進行了第二次核試驗。

去年11月，朝鮮向到訪的美國科學家海克爾(Siegfried Hecker)展示了一處安裝了2000臺離心機的鈾濃縮設施。

今年1月28號，聯合國安理會對朝制裁委員會的專家小組提交報告指出，朝鮮擁有比伊朗更先進的鈾濃縮設施。

曾任美國國務院朝鮮問題顧問的黃映鏡認為，目前的外交努力看來會導致六方會談的恢復。

他指出，這並不意味著以無核化為目地的談判可能取得多大的進展，但這將是所有各方緩和緊張的一種手段，這對大多數國家來說成本最低。

金榮勇（台灣政治大學教授）：「就北韓來講，它不去向西方國家包括像南韓等等，得到一些經濟援助跟糧食的支援的話，它可能會撐不下去的這種情形。所以，遲早它還是會玩這一套把戲。」

目前，朝鮮正經歷著1945年以來最長的嚴寒氣候，糧食短缺處於近幾年來最嚴重的情況，急需人道主義援助。聯合國兒童基金會最近的報告說，32%的朝鮮嬰兒因營養不良而發育不全。朝鮮83%的總人口依靠地下市場經濟生存。

另一方面，中日將於2月下旬在東京重啟副外長級戰略對話，旨在協商防止中日撞船事件再次發生的對策，修復兩國關係。

不過，日本外相前原誠司1月6號在華盛頓演時說，日本對釣魚島擁有主權的立場不變。而台灣總統府1月11號再次重申，釣魚島是中華民國固有的領土。

台灣總統府發言人羅智強說，釣魚島列島從明代開始，就由中國人發現命名，經過明、清兩朝數百年使用，並納入海防，並不是無人島，這個歷史事實在文獻當中有記錄。

而近日，日本與俄羅斯對有爭議的島嶼爭端再度升高。自去年11月起，俄羅斯總統梅德韋傑夫、第一副總理和部長等政府高層，相繼視察被日本稱為「北方四島」的南千島群島。

在日本外相2月10號訪問莫斯科之前，俄羅斯國防部長謝爾久科夫4號視察了南千島群島，計劃更新駐防俄軍機槍炮兵師的裝備。

日本政府將2月7號定為「北方領土日」，日本對俄羅斯計劃吸引韓國公司開發北方四島表示不滿。當天，俄羅斯駐日本大使館收到含有一枚步槍子彈的恐嚇信。

7號，日本首相菅直人在東京出席「歸還北方領土全國大會」，並帶領1500名日本民眾上街遊行，他強烈譴責俄羅斯總統視察北方四島，承諾日本決不會在索回北方四島主權問題上妥協。

俄羅斯遠東研究所日本研究中心負責人吉斯塔諾夫說，在俄日領土糾紛中，俄羅斯不會拉攏中國，或是與中國結盟共同對抗日本。不過，他指出，俄日之間的領土問題談判將會變得更加困難。

新唐人記者李元翰、蕭宇綜合報導

North and South Koreas held a talk at DMZ on Feb. 8.

This is the 1st talk since North Korean shelling on

South Korea』s Yeonpyeong Island, in Nov 2010.

President Lee Myung-bak said, if N. Korea is sincere

an inter-Korean summit could be held.

Sino-Japan Diaoyu Island dispute is also easing.

However, the dispute over the Four Northern Islands

between Russia and Japan has again escalated.

The events of Cheonan warship sinking and N. Korean

shelling on Yeonpyeong island last year sparked

high levels of tension on the Korean peninsula.

South Korea held 48 large-scale military exercises

in 2010, alongside the U.S. aircraft carriers.

Since the beginning of 2011, N. Korea expressed its

willingness to quickly eliminate confrontation and

restore dialogue. North, South Korea and the U.S.

all lowered their combat readiness levels.

President Lee Myung-bak said, he believed peace on

Korean Peninsula could be achieved in 2011.

He said on Dec. 29, 2010 that denuclearization of the

Peninsula could only be resolved by the 6-party talks.

After the Sino-U.S. summit, President Obama and

Hu Jintao issued a joint statement on Jan. 19,

expressing for the first time concerns about

N. Korean concentrated uranium issues

and supporting an inter-Korean dialogue.

Prof. Cai Jian, an expert on Korea at Fudan University:

Many believe that China and the U.S. are behind

North and South Koreas, so whether the two Koreas

can improve their relationship depends on

whether China and the U.S. would agree on the issue.

Both China and the U.S. stressed the denuclearization

on Korean Peninsula, which is welcomed by the South.

Shi Yinhong, professor of international relationship

at the People』s University said, this is the 1st time

since 2009 that China indirectly criticized North Korea.

After the Sino-US summit, N. Korea proposed to hold

a defense minister meeting. S. Korea accepted the move,

but request N. Korea to show sincerity and apologize.

On Feb. 8, North and South Koreas held a colonel-level

military talk at DMZ, discussing higher level

military meetings and scheduling.

In April 2009, the UN Security Council denounced

N. Korea for launching rockets.

The North responded by quitting the 6-party talk,

restarting the nuclear facility,

and expelling the UN nuclear weapon inspectors.

Soon after, N. Korea carried out its 2nd nuclear test.

In Nov 2010, N. Korea showed the visiting U.S. scientist

Siegfried Hecker a facility of 2000 centrifuges

for uranium concentration.

On Jan. 28, a UN report showed that North Korea

possessed more advanced uranium concentration

technologies than Iran.

Huang Yingjing, ex-consul on Korean affairs in U.S.

Dept. of State, believes, current diplomatic efforts

are likely to result in the restoration of the 6-part talk.

He pointed out, this does not mean the talk aiming

at denuclearization can make a major progress,

but it is a way for all parties to ease tensions.

This is the lowest-cost approach to most countries.

Prof. Jin Rongyong, at Taiwan』s National Chengchi Univ.:

If N. Korea does not obtain any financial support and

food supplies from western countries and S. Korea,

it would be difficult to survive.

So, sooner or later, it will come back to the talk.

Currently, North Korea is experiencing the longest

cold weather since 1945.

Food shortages are the most severe in recent years.

It is in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.

According to UNICEF』s recent report,

32% of infants suffer from ateleiosis due to malnutrition.

83% of the population relies on underground economy.

China and Japan will restart the deputy foreign

minister-level strategic dialogue in Tokyo in late Feb.

Its aim is to discuss measures preventing

future ship collisions and repair bilateral relations.

However, in his speech in Washington D.C. on Jan. 6,

Japanese Foreign Minister Maehara said,

Japan’s claim of Diaoyu Islands remains unchanged.

Taiwan Presidential Office reiterated on Jan. 11,

Diaoyu Islands are the territory of Republic of China.

Taiwan Presidential Office spokesman Luo Zhiqiang

said that Diaoyu Islands were discovered by Chinese

in Ming Dynasty.

After being used for hundreds of years,

they were included in China』s coastal defense,

and not uninhabited islands.

These historical facts can be found in records.

Recently, islands disputes between Japan and Russia

are on the rise again.

Since Nov 2010, many Russian senior officials,

Including President Dmitry Medvedev,

have been inspecting South Kuril Islands, which are

called “Four Northern Islands” by the Japanese.

Prior to Japanese foreign minister』s visit to Moscow

on Feb, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov

inspected South Kuril Islands on Feb. 4, 2011,

planning to upgrade the Russian artillery』s equipment.

The Japanese government named Feb. 7

the “Northern Territories Day".

Japan is discontent about Russia』s plan to attract

South Korean companies to develop the islands.

On the same day, the Russian Embassy in Japan

received a threatening letter containing a rifle bullet.

On Feb. 7, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan

attended “Reclaim of Northern Territories Assembly”,

and led 1,500 people took to the streets in Tokyo.

He strongly condemned the Russian president』s

inspection of the northern islands, and promised that

Japan never compromises on the sovereignty issue.

The head of Japanese Research Center at

Russian Far East Research Institute, said that

in the Russian-Japanese territorial dispute,

Russia will not draw China over to its side,

or form an alliance with China against Japan.

However, he pointed out that the territorial disputes

would make the negotiations more difficult.

NTD reporter Li Yuanhan