【新唐人2013年07月06日讯】由于中共当局不愿通过改变货币和财政政策，来应对经济放缓，投资者开始撤离中国市场。学者指出，在GDP快速增长、和高楼大厦这种表面的繁荣下面，实际上，中国经济却非常脆弱，而且由国民承担的巨大代价和痛苦，远远超出这种增长给他们带来的实际收益。
据7月4号美国《华尔街日报》的报导，市场调研资料提供商EPFR的资料显示，过去18周中，有16周出现了全球基金经理将资金撤出中国股市的现象，截至6月5号的五个交易日，就累计撤出8.34亿美元，创2008年1月份金融危机爆发以来的最大流出规模。
大陆的“申银万国证券”，7月1号也发布全球资金流向的报告。报告指出，上周，中国股市流出资金量达到11.6亿美元，环比增加27%，同时2.9亿美元流出债市，环比增加223%。
法国“巴黎投资(BNP Paribas Investment Partners)”驻香港的亚太区股票投资主管邝乐天也表示，他们已减持中国股票，而他管理的资产规模为20亿美元。
与此同时，中国国内的投资者也在撤离股市。大股东、公司高管和持有股权超过5%的个人，纷纷抛售手中的股票。据“瑞银(UBS)”的研究显示，按百分比计算，这些人5月份在创业板的抛售力度，创下自全球金融危机以来的最高水准。
“北京大学”经济学教授夏业良指出，这种情况一方面反映投资者的心态——不看好中国经济﹔另一方面也反映出，投资者对政府操控或利益集团操控的市场不信任。
北京大学经济学教授夏业良：“中国股市长久以来就有这样一个评论，说它不是一个正常的投资市场、资本市场，而是一个赌场，而且一直是政策式，受政策的影响极大，经常会被有关集团、利益集团所操纵。”
目前，正在美国“斯坦福大学胡佛研究院”做访问学者的夏业良表示，撤出股市是非常明智的做法。因为，在国外，无论是对中国的经济、金融体系和社会、政治各层面，都有担忧。他说，中国在表面上，GDP快速增长、高楼大厦林立，实际上，中国经济增长很多是不健康的，是非常脆弱的。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“中国股市现在已经脱离了全球的资本市场，因为它实行的人治管理方式，还有它的资本限制、股市上市的成分，还有企业的黑洞，在全球各国，特别是G20国家里面都是非常严峻的。所以它的资本市场基本上是全球的最低点。”
中国《国情内参》期刊首席研究员巩胜利还认为，中国实行的是严厉的资本管理方式，如果风险资本、股市资本都走了，将会对中国股市造成无法抵抗的灾难，还会对国家产业、和经济的提升，产生负面影响。
今年以来，上海证券综合指数累计跌幅达到12.1%，为亚洲范围的跌幅之最，同时是全球表现最差的股市之一。香港恒生中国企业指数的表现更为糟糕，今年至今累计跌幅达22.2%。
同时，这种现象已经蔓延到货币市场，虽然中共极力想维持人民币稳定，但投资者始终在抛售人民币。自上月以来，人民币汇率已下跌0.15%。香港离岸市场交易的1年期美元/人民币无本金交割远期报价暗示，未来12个月人民币汇率将下跌2.8%。
夏业良：“从过去的这些年，尤其是最近的七、八年时间来看，中国的倒退是全面性的倒退，从政治、经济、社会，伦理各个方面都在倒退。所以，大家越来越不看好。民间的抱怨声可以说是怨声载道。”
夏业良指出，真正了解中国的经济学家，不会赞赏所谓的“中国经济奇迹”或“中国模式”，因为在中国，由国民承担的巨大代价和痛苦，远远超出这种增长给他们带来的实际收益。
采访/常春 编辑/宋风 后制/钟元
Investors Withdraw from Chinese Market
With Chinese authorities unwillingness to change monetary
and fiscal policies, to deal with the economic slowdown,
investors have begun withdrawing from the Chinese market.
Scholars have pointed out that
China’s economy is very fragile.
It is under a superficial prosperity of rapid
growth in GDP, and high-rise buildings.
The cost and sufferings of the Chinese people are
far beyond the real earnings brought by growth.
On July 4, according to the Wall Street Journal, market
research data provider EPFR had data showing that in
the past 18 weeks, there were 16 weeks where global
fund managers withdrew funds from China’s stock market.
As of June 5, the total withdrawal was $ 834 Million.
This was the highest outflow since the
large financial crisis in January 2008.
On July 1, SWS also released a report of global capital flows.
The report pointed out that last week, the Chinese stock
market outflow volume reached 1.16 Billion U.S. dollars.
This was an increase of 27%. Meanwhile, $ 290 million
left the bond market, which is an increase of 223%.
Kwong Letian, Asia Pacific Equity Investment Officer of
BNP (Paribas Investment Partners) in Hong Kong also
said they would reduce holdings of Chinese stocks,
and assets under his management are of $ 2 Billion.
At the same time, China’s domestic stock
market investors are also evacuating.
Largest shareholders, corporate executives and individuals
with over 5% shareholding, have started to sell their shares.
According to UBS research, in percentage terms,
the selling strength of these people in GEM
was the highest since the global financial crisis.
Economics professor Xia Ye-liang in Peking University
pointed out that, this reflects the mentality of investors.
They are not optimistic about the Chinese economy.
It also reflects investors’ mistrust of interest groups
or government control or manipulation of the market.
Xia Ye-liang: “China’s stock market has had a long
reputation that it is not a normal investment market.
It is not a capital market, but a casino,
and it has always been policy driven.
It was greatly influenced by policy, and will often be
manipulated by relevant group or interest groups.”
Xia Ye-liang is a visiting scholar of the
Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
He said that it is a very sensible approach
to withdraw from the Chinese stock market.
In other countries, there are many concerns over China’s
economic, social, political and financial systems at all levels.
He said that on the surface, GDP growth is high,
and high-rise buildings are all over in China.
However, China’s economic growth
is unhealthy, and very fragile.
Gong Shengli, a Chinese financial think-tank researcher:
“China’s stock market is out of the global capital market,
because it maintains the rule of human management.
It’s capital restrictions, and the content of stock market
listing, as well as corporate black holes, is very tough in
countries around the world, particularly in G20 countries.
So it’s capital markets are basically the lowest in the world.”
Gong Shengli is Chief researcher of Internal Reference.
Gong believes that China practices the
strictest approach to capital management.
If venture and stock market capital are gone, it will
cause irresistible disaster to the stock market in China.
It will also have a negative impact on the
national industry and economic improvement.
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
has a cumulative decline of 12.1% this year.
This is the largest in Asia, and it is also
one of the world’s worst stock markets.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Enterprises
Index is the worst in China.
So far, it has a cumulative decline of 22.2%.
At the same time, this phenomenon
has spread to the money market.
Although the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tried hard to
keep RMB stable, investors have always been selling RMB.
The RMB exchange rate has
fallen by 0.15% since last month.
Hong Kong offshore market transactions per year for USD /
RMB non-deliverable forwards quote suggests that the
RMB exchange rate will fall by 2.8% in the next 12 months.
Xia Ye-liang: “From the past few years,
especially the last seven years,
China’s retrogression is comprehensive in political,
economic, social and ethical aspects.
So people are becoming less optimistic, with
grumbling discontentment among the people.”
Xia Ye-liang pointed out that economists with a real
understanding of the Chinese economy will not appreciate
the so-called Chinese economic miracle or Chinese model.
This is because people in China bear the enormous cost
and suffering, far beyond actual gains brought by growth.
