【新唐人2013年04月26日讯】据中国地震局网站消息，截至24号14点30分，四川省雅安芦山“4.20”7级强烈地震，共计造成196人死亡，失踪21人，11470人受伤，1992894人受灾，住房倒塌14万多间，严重受损36万多间，622座水库、208座水电站受损。有学者分析，这场大灾难与时任四川省委书记周永康大搞西部大开发——兴建水库有关。请看报导。
关于雅安地震的原因，目前专家学者的看法不一。对于芦山周围水库和大型水电站集中，是否是诱发地震的原因﹖四川省地矿局区域地质调查队工程师范晓向媒体表示，不完全排除这种可能性。
而2008年汶川地震以来，地质专家研究发现，“紫坪铺水库”与汶川地震有着密切的关系。范晓表示，据他勘测，这次雅安地震是2008年汶川地震的余震，而非独立的地震。
旅居德国的中国环境、国土问题专家王维洛博士日前对《自由亚洲电台》表示：这次地震从他的判断来看，可以确定和四川的水库建设肯定有关系。
王维洛从80年代末期，开始关注中国三峡水库及周边地区的水库建设，以及环境问题，还出版多本专著。在此之前，他认为，汶川地震是由“紫坪铺水库”首先引发的水库地震，然后诱发下面一次大的地震。
“紫坪铺水库”大坝工程2001年3月开工，是时任四川省委书记周永康在西部大开发的第一个水库。据官方报导，大坝工程共耗资72亿人民币。
王维洛指出，当时中国有一个“西部大开发”的口号和运动，“西部大开发”首要的工程就是水电开发。
据大陆官媒报导，目前在芦山地震震中方圆百公里范围内，水库和水电站超过了100个。
王维洛表示，无论是汶川地震、舟曲的泥石流灾难，都是由这些水利工程所引发。就连玉树的地震，也是和它旁边的水库有紧密关联。
北京环保学者张峻峰：“水库诱发地震的可能性是非常大的。这是因为当地的地质结构，使得当地的御应力有很大的不稳定性。由于建设水库，改变了力的平衡，尤其是水库在蓄水过程中，水体的重量，促使当地的应力的平衡打破了。”
北京环保学者张峻峰还表示，这里是地震活跃带，水库的建设和水库的运转过程，促使了地震在不应该发生的时间点爆发了。
其实，“紫坪铺水库”大坝工程上马之前，原中国水电科学研究院的陈实就在杂志上发表文章，提出反对意见﹔四川省地震局的高级工程师李有才、和四川地矿局物探大队曹树宁高级工程师，曾撰写了《紫坪铺水库枢纽工程基本烈度》的文章。他们通过水库所在地区的地震地质、构造、深部地球物理、历史上的地震等，进行深入研究，对在龙门山断裂带上建造“紫坪铺水库”大坝提出坚决的反对意见。
李有才和曹树宁认为，“紫坪铺水库”大坝工程，将是一个潜在威胁成都平原数千万人的“危险工程”。
当时，周永康还在多地力推水利建设。
另外，张峻峰表示，四川地处贡嘎山脉，它是印度板块和亚洲板块碰撞形成的。印度板块和亚洲板块，在持续的相互运动过程中产生的作用力，就集中体现在贡嘎山脉上，包括汶川、芦山等地区的地震、泥石流、山体滑坡等地质灾害就会多发。
张峻峰：“在这种多发、频发的地质状况情况之下，人们应该远离这样的地方、这样的地区去生活。如果在这些地区去生活、去做一些其他的活动的话，势必会因为地质灾害的影响而造成很大的损失。”
张峻峰认为，水库还改变了当地地质的变化规律，使得人们对灾害的预防能力也大大减弱。
王维洛指出，雅安地震再次告诉我们，如果我们在经济开发的时候不注意这些问题，这类灾害是不会断的，只能越来越严重。
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/肖颜
Experts: Dams Induce Earthquakes; Who’s Responsible?
China Seismological Bureau website published on April 24,
its latest data on Sichuan Ya’an Lushan “4.20” earthquake.
It shows: 196 people killed, 21 missing, 11,470 injured,
almost 2 million affected, over 140 000 houses destroyed,
over 360 000 houses severely damaged,
622 reservoirs and 208 hydropower stations damaged.
Experts think this catastrophe is related to the construction
of dams in the western regions,
by the former Secretary of Sichun Provincial Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) Committee Zhou Yongkang.
On the cause of the Ya’an earthquake,
experts and scholars have mixed views.
Have the concentrated dams and large-scale hydropower
located around Lushan caused the earthquake?
Fan Xiao, engineer of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Geology
and Mineral Resources, regional geological survey team,
said to the media that they cannot completely rule out
this possibility.
After 2008, geological experts found close link
between Zipingpu Dam and the Wenchuan earthquake.
Fan said, according to his investigation Ya’an’s earthquake
can be considered an aftershock of the Wenchuan’s in 2008, rather than a separate earthquake.
Dr. Wang Weiluo, an environment and land expert,
residing in Germany, spoke to Radio Free Asia on the issue.
According to his judgment, this earthquake is related
to the construction of Sichuan’s dams.
He started to pay attention to China’s Three Gorges Dam
and the surrounding area in the 1980s,
as well as to the environmental issues related to it,
publishing a number of monographs on the topic.
Dr. Wang believes Wenchuan’s earthquake was triggered
by a dam’s earthquake, followed by the big earthquake itself.
Zipingpu Dam’ project started in 2001, and was the first dam
of China Western Development under Zhou Yongkang.
According to the official reports,
this project has a total cost of 7.2 billion Yuan.
Dr. Wang pointed out, in the “China Western Development”
movement, the hydropower project was the primary.
Mainland’s official media said, within 100 km of Lushan’s
epicenter are built over 100 dams and hydropower stations.
He also pointed out, Wenchuan’s earthquake and Zhouqi’s
landslide were caused by these water conservation projects.
Even the Yushu earthquake is related
to the damn built next to it.
Zhang Junfeng, Beijing environmental scholar:
‘The possibility of dam’ induced seismicity is very big.
This is because the local geological structure
is prone to pressure instability.
The construction of dams changes the balance of forces,
especially during the water storage process, the weight of the water brings the local pressure out of balance.’
Zhang Junfeng also said, this is a seismically active area,
thus the construction of dams itself triggers earthquakes.
In fact, before the decision was made on the construction
of Zipingpu Dam, there were experts’ advises against it.
Chen Shi, former China Hydropower Research Institute
expert, published an article with concerns on the issue;
Li Youcai, Sichuan Seismological Bureau senior engineer,
Cao Shuning, Sichuan Bureau of Geology senior engineer,
have written the article, “Zipingpu Dam Project Intensity”.
They investigated local geology, structure, deep geophysics,
history of earthquakes and other in-depth factors, bringing out firm objections against the Zipingpu Dam project.
Li Youcai and Cao Shuning concluded that Zipingpu Dam
is a potential threat to the Chengdu Plain’ tens of millions of people, thus calling it a “dangerous project”.
Nevertheless, Zhou Yongkang still pushed and went ahead
with constructions of dams in many areas.
Besides, Zhang Junfeng added that Sichuan is located
in Mount Gongga, where the Indian and Asian plates collide.
The force generated by their continuing friction can affect
Mount Gongga and can lead to earthquakes, landslides, and other geological disasters like Wenchuan’s and Lushan’s.
Zhang Junfeng: ‘Under this multiple and frequent geological
activities, people should stay away from this area.
If people live in the area and meddle with it, it is bound
to cause great damage due to its geological impact.’
Zhang believes, the dam changed the local geology balance,
greatly reducing the disaster prevention for local people.
Dr. Wang concludes, Ya’an earthquake is another reminder
to pay attention to these aspects of the economic development;
otherwise such disasters will continue to happen,
and will only become more and more serious.
