【新唐人2013年03月07日讯】《中央社》报导，朝鲜将废除《朝鲜停战协定》。分析人士认为，朝鲜的这一行动是为了反击美韩军演。但也有人认为，朝鲜是想拉响对战警报。那么，朝鲜的这个动作，是否表示朝鲜半岛即将重新开战？还是另有其他目地？下面请听专家的分析。
3月5号，朝鲜《中央社》援引朝鲜人民军最高司令部发言人的话说，美国和韩国进行的军事演习是“针对朝鲜停战协定的毁灭性的系统行动”。朝鲜决定从3月11号开始，完全废除《朝鲜停战协定》，并将停止朝鲜在“板门店”的代表部活动，切断美国与朝鲜的军事联络电话。
1953年7月27号，朝鲜人民军、和中国人民志愿军，以及联合国军在“板门店”签定关于朝鲜战争的停战协定。主要的协议包括：1、确立军事分界线，并建立非军事区作为缓冲；2、敌对双方停止敌对行为，撤出非军事区；3、各方遣返战俘。
朝鲜去年年底发射卫星后，联合国安理会通过对朝制裁决议，朝鲜随后进行第三次地下核试验，对此美、韩等国继续策划对朝制裁，并从3月1号开始进行大规模军事演习。这次军事演习，韩国大约排出20万的军队，而美军派出1万军力。据报导，这次军事演习会持续到4月底结束。
而朝鲜宣称退出“停战协定”，是否表示朝鲜半岛即将重新开战？
时政评论家伍凡认为，朝鲜宣称废除“停战协定”，其实只是一种威胁，而这种威胁已不止一次。
时政评论家伍凡：“北朝鲜经不起打的。虽然它有很多坦克、很多军人、但是它的武器、指挥系统、战斗力以及它的粮食、经济都不行，没有后力。毕竟它的周身地带很小，人家一反击它就没有什么威力了。”
那么，朝鲜为什么打出这样的信号弹呢？
伍凡指出，朝鲜当局为了控制军队、社会和政党，而玩花招、把戏。他们制造威胁，是想获取利益。
伍凡：“它现在用这套东西来讹诈，你们要给我钱，并且我拿核试验做买卖，它现在不仅仅是从政治上、军事上，把它扩大到成为一个生意，并且还讹诈，我这么讹诈，教训你们还得给我钱，给我粮食，给我石油，变成这样一个无赖。”
伍凡指出，金正恩想废除“朝鲜停战协定”，却涉及中共。
伍凡：这个停战协定就牵扯到中共，你中共要不要废除停战协定？因为你是参战者之一，并且在上面签了字的。所以不是像金正恩说想废就废了。如果它真行动了，真的废除了，那它这朝鲜完全不顾中国的立场，根本不顾你中国的面子和里子了，统统不管你，那等于和中国（共）翻脸了。这个我说它现在很难做到。它没有力量。”
今年2月，朝鲜不顾国际社会的反对，毅然进行了第三次核试验。外界质疑，对于朝鲜的核技术、设备、核原料从何而来？根据中共核工业部消息人士透露，朝鲜的核技术人员一直在中国接受训练，最尖端的技术都来源于中共。中共实际上控制朝鲜核试验的关键原料和技术、以及尖端技术人员，甚至有些实验都是在中国核基地秘密完成。
“中共在朝鲜核试上卖什么葫芦药？”的文章作者说，朝鲜进行第三次核试验，有人呼吁中共，应制裁朝鲜，断绝援助。有的人说，朝鲜竟在中国人的家门口核试验，毒害中国人，朝鲜，太说不过去了。然而，中共纹风不动，还放出风声说，中朝边界没有测出核辐射，很安全。
因此，朝鲜这次宣称废除《朝鲜停战协定》，是否同样有中共的默许和支持，外界还在进一步观察。
采访编辑/唐睿 后制/黎安安
Interpreting Pyongyang’s Threat to End Armistice
According to the Korean Central News Agency report,
North Korea will scrap the Korean Armistice Agreement.
The action is thought to be a counter action
to US and South Korea joint military exercises.
Another view is that Pyongyang has warned of a war.
Will this action signal war in the Korean Peninsula?
Or is there any other purpose? Let’s see what experts say.
On March 5, the Korean Central News Agency cited
the spokesman for the army Supreme Command.
It said that the US and South Korean military
drills are “a vivid expression of their systematic
violation” of the 1953 ceasefire agreement.
Reportedly, Pyongyang will
nullify the armistice on March 11.
The activities of official representative
office at Panmunjom will be suspended.
Regular military contact with the U.S. will be shut off.
The Korean War ceasefire agreement was signed July 1953.
Signatories included North Korea, China and the UN forces.
The agreement mainly covers following points:
1, Define a military demarcation line, and
set up a demilitarized zone as a buffer;
2, Opposing sides cease hostilities, and
withdraw from the demilitarized zone;
3, Each party repatriate prisoners of war.
The UN Security Council has decided to sanction
North Korea for its rocket launch in December 2012.
Then, North Korea staged a third underground nuclear test.
While plotting further sanctions on North Korea,
the U.S. and South Korea started a large-scale
joint military drill on March 1st.
South Korea’s 200,000 strong force took part
in the exercise, with 10,000 troops from the U.S.
Reportedly, the drill will run until the end of April.
Now North Korea has claimed to cancel the 1953 armistice.
Does that means fighting will be
resumed on the Korean Peninsula?
Critic Wu Fan says it was North Korea threaten to end the
armistice, and has habitually made similar intimidations.
Wu Fan: “North Korea cannot afford wars,
although it has a lot of tanks and soldiers.
Its weapons, command system, combat effectiveness,
and food supply is weak, and lacks sustainable support.
Its territory is very limited, so it’ll become
powerless once opponents’ counter attack.”
Why did North Korea take such a stance?
Wu Fan speculates that they are using it as a tactic
to control the army, the society and the political party.
It attempts to gain interests under the guise of threat.
Wu Fan: “Now it uses this trick for blackmails.
It plays the nuclear strikes card, aiming
to get money and economic aids.
It has turned it into a business of coercion,
for money, food, and petroleum. It’s all rogue.”
Wu Fan says that Kim Jong-un’s attempt to invalidate the
armistice is linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Wu Fan: “The armistice agreement involves
the CCP. Is the CCP willing to cancel it, too?
Since the CCP is a combatant and a signatory.
So it’s not simple as Kim Jong-un’s decision.
If it really revokes the armistice, that
means it’ll ignore and fall out with the CCP.
I think it’s hard to go that far, for it has no strength.”
In February, North Korea conducted a third nuclear test.
The international community questions the source
of its nuclear technology equipment, and the materials.
Insiders in China’s Nuclear Industry Ministry
reportedly revealed that North Korea’s nuclear
technicians have received training in China.
The CCP offered Pyongyang the most advanced technology.
In fact, the CCP controls North Korea’s core nuclear
materials and technology, and it’s leading technicians.
Some experiments were even done
in secret at China’s nuclear sites.
newcenturynews.com published an article, entitled, “What
is the CCP’s real intention on N. Korean nuclear tests?”
The article mentioned that after North Korea’s
third nuclear test, some people urged the CCP
to sanction North Korea and to stop economic aid.
Some others criticized that the CCP doesn’t
make sense in ignoring North Korea’s nuclear
test, which was made near China’s border.
In reality, the CCP alleged that China hasn’t
detected any nuclear radiation created by the test.
Thus, is there CCP tacit approval and
support Behind North Korea’s threat?
The international communities are following the issue closely.
