【新唐人2012年1月10日讯】进入2012年，在学术界有关中国未来的讨论越来越多。最近，中国大陆一位学者提出了一个观点，认为，未来对中共当局最大的威胁来自年轻知识份子。我们来看看他是怎么说的。
广东人文学会副秘书长，信孚研究院研究员余以为在去年12月发表博文，标题为《最大威胁来自年轻知识份子》。
文章开篇以数据说话。他写道：2012年中国普通高校毕业生规模达到680万人，比上年增加20万。加上前两年200万未就业人数，今年累计有近千万大学生要找工作。
文章还指出，中国目前的现状是：政治体制改革滞后使中国产业升级困难，文化、金融等知识产业在政治高压下缓慢难行。而中国看似繁荣的经济，但就业机会也只是增加了建筑工地和生产线的就业机会。
余以为提出，农民工短缺以及大学生失业，缩小了大学毕业生起薪与农民工工资差距，并且，可能成为未来社会动荡的主因。
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明也观察到，随着目前中国经济危机爆发，中国每年有几百万的大学生找不到工作。
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明：“大学生花了大量的钱，去投资教育，而教育的质量也不高，甚至毕业的时候也拿不到一个正常的好的文凭，而且拿到文凭也找不到工作，这些使得大学生成为中国目前社会中，恐怕是一个最为骚动不安，也容易造反的人群。”
大陆活跃时评人童大焕1月8号也发表博文，表示赞成余以为的观点，并且认为年轻知识份子的“威胁”不仅是“将来时﹙式﹚”，而且已经成为“现在进行时﹙式﹚”。
童大焕认为，中国高企的房价和“大学生民工化”的生存环境形成刺激和反差，使当代年轻的大学生成为“个体能量很小，群体声音很大”的怒吼的一群。
夏明发现，中共思想体系控制的那套宣传手段，在新一代知识份子当中，越来越失去效用。
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明：“中国有一个传统，青年知识份子敢为天下先的一个冲动，所以中国从20世纪到现在都看到了，青年学生往往会走在社会的前列，往往成为中国的…无论是民主化还是自由化先锋队伍。”
不仅是中国大陆的学者讨论这个话题，日本作家加藤嘉一也注意到了中国80后、90后这个群体。
加藤嘉一认为，大学生的问题是今天中国最大的政治，是展望中国未来的一面镜子。
新唐人记者常春、李静、萧宇采访报导。
Young Intellectuals Deemed CCP’s Greatest Threat
Academic discussions on China’s future are mounting, as a
Chinese scholar recently put forward their view.
The greatest threat to Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
regime is deemed to come from young intellectuals.
Yu Yiwei, deputy secretary of Guangdong Institute of
Humanities and Xinfu Institute researcher, published a blog.
Its title: “The biggest threat comes from young intellectuals".
The article cited data that China’s college graduate figures
will reach 6.8 million in 2012.
This figure increased by 200,000 compared to last year.
There are also 2 million unemployed graduates from the
previous two years.
This means 2012 will have nearly 10 million
university-graduate job seekers.
Yu’s article comments on China’s current situation, with
slow political reform causing difficulty in industrial upgrading.
Cultural, financial and other knowledge industries develop
slowly under heavy-handed political policy.
China’s apparent prosperity merely increases jobs
at construction sites and production lines.
Yu Yiwei said the gap in college graduates’ starting salaries
and migrant workers’ salaries had reduced.
This is due to a migrant worker shortage and jobless college
graduates.
This may become the main cause of future social unrest.
Xia Ming, political science professor at City University of
New York reviewed the situation.
Along with China’s current economic crisis, millions of
college graduates have been jobless each year in China.
Xia Ming: “Students spent a lot of money on their education.
With poor quality of education, they even couldn’t obtain
a normal good diploma after graduating.
What’s more, even holding diplomas, they couldn’t find jobs.
These university graduates may become the most restless
and rebellious group in today’s China. “
Commentator in China, Tong Dahuan, supported Yu’s views
in a blog article dated January 8.
Tong thinks that the “threat" of young intellectuals is not only
“the future tense”.
It is also “the Present Progressive Tense”.
Tong observed alarming contrast between soaring housing
prices and “migrating university students" living standard.
Contemporary young university graduates have turned into
a roaring group.
Their “individual energy is very small, but have a very loud
voice en masse”.
Xia Ming said, for the new generation of intellectuals, CCP’s
propaganda techniques have increasingly lost its influence.
Xia Ming: “In Chinese tradition, young intellectuals have
impulse to take the lead, as we’ve seen over the last century.
Young students often take the forefront in the community, so
they become China’s pioneers for democracy and liberty. “
On top of Chinese scholars, Japanese writer Kato Yoshikazu
also joined the discussion on the issue.
Kato has noticed Chinese people who were born in 1980s
and 1990s.
In Kato’s view, the university graduate issue becomes
China’s biggest political problem.
It’s also a mirror for predicting China’s future.
NTD reporters Chuang Chun, Li Jing and Xiao Yu
