【新唐人2011年12月17日讯】美国期刊《外交政策》最近预测2012年的世界大事件，其中预测中国将发生大的政治动荡。《日本时报》也撰文说，中共目前面临类似1989年的挑战。评论者认为2012年的中国，随时可能发生大的变动，房地产和土地所有权问题可能是一个引爆点。
美国杂志《外交政策》在“展望来年”文章中说，从动车事故到空气污染，中国公众对政府的批评已经直言不讳。加之中共政府派别之间的公开争斗，社交媒体的信息传播，中共的新一任领导人将面对更容易被激怒的公众，更加难以维持中央集权和控制局面。
《日本时报》也撰文说，目前中共领导人面临类似1989年的危机，比如民众要求自由、政府腐败问题、裙带关系，以及中共统治的合法性等。同时，中共还面临环境问题，社会安全问题以及医疗问题，这些都是1989年事件中没有面临的新因素。
而中国民众追求人权自由的渴望，和中共强权之间的碰撞在持续加剧。北京的注册会计师杜延林表示，自己也在思考2012年的中国会不会发生什么变动。但是他觉得中国的事情很难预测。
杜延林：“因为我们面对的一个独裁体制，有很多不确定因素，也许一夜之间，像房地产市场一样，他一直在增长，一直在增长，突然在一夜之间，可能就崩盘了。当然我希望这种变动，这种变革能少带来一些损失，少带来一些社会震荡。”
旅居德国的社会学家王容芬博士认为，民众和政府的碰撞，除了表现在中共构筑防火墙和网络翻墙之间的拉锯战之外，共产党利益集团霸占土地所有权的行为，将导致民众爆发反抗。
王容芬：“中国土地所有权是归国家的，国家是归他党的，执政党的，党又是归他这掌权的几个人的。所以这是极不合理的。而这涉及到每一个人的具体利益。你买了房子只有七十年，或者四十年，五十年的使用权，将来你又到哪儿去？最后中国出大乱子要从房地产上，这是一个根本的所有权问题。”
世界媒体注意到，曾经是共产主义国家的俄罗斯，最近在全国60个城市出现了抗议普京的群众示威游行，莫斯科的游行更多达3万人。但是《世界日报》社论认为，在现有的民主体制之下，俄罗斯不会发生“天安门事件”，普京也不会成为邓小平。
杜延林指出，中国和俄罗斯的区别是，极权政治和威权政治的区别。俄罗斯的体制还是民主政体，虽然有个人威权，但是大的环境是不允许他一意孤行的。普京是不敢把坦克车派上莫斯科街头的。但是中共是一个极权或者后极权的体制，所以它什么事都可能干的出来。
《东方日报》评论指出，中国古语说，“人民为水，水能载舟，也能覆舟”，一旦这股洪流发动起来，有哪艘大船能够安然无恙？再怎样维稳，都是螳臂当车。中国年初的“茉莉花革命”已为中国政治动荡做了初步彩排。问题只是明年这把火由谁点燃，在何处燃点，动乱之后中国将向何处去？
新唐人记者秦雪、郭敬采访报导。
US Journal Predicts Unrest in China in 2012
The US journal Foreign Policy recently predicted several
World events in 2012, including political unrest in China.
Echoing these predictions, The Japan Times said that the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is facing similar challenges as those in 1989.
Critics believe upheavals may happen any time in 2012
in China, possibly triggered by real estate and land ownership issues.
The US journal Foreign Policy wrote in an article named
“Next Year, in Review”
about the outspoken criticism of the Chinese regime,
on issues from train wrecks to smog.
With more overt campaigns between factions in the Chinese
regime, and the spread of social media,
China’s new leaders should expect to have a more fractious
constituency and a tougher time maintaining central control of the world’s emerging superpower.
The Japan Times also wrote that the current crisis faced by
CCP leaders is similar to that of 1989,
such as freedom of press, corruption and nepotism,
and the legality of CCP.
Meanwhile, the CCP is also facing environmental issues,
as well as social security and medical problems, which were not involved in 1989.
The conflict between Chinese people’s press for human rights
and the CCP’s power is escalating.
A certificated public accountant in Beijing,
Du Yanlin, said that
he is thinking about the possible changes in China in 2012,
but reflects that things in China are hard to predict.
Du Yanlin said: “What we face is a dictatorial power,
which has many uncertain factors.
It might keep growing like the real estate market,
but collapse suddenly.
But I hope future changes can bring less loss and
less social unrest.”
A sociologist residing in Germany, Dr Wang Rongfen,
believed that the conflict between people and the government,
is reflected in the seesaw battle between the CCP’s
firewall project and netizens’ breaking blockades.
The CCP interest groups’ land grabbing will finally trigger
people’s revolt.
Wang Rongfen said: “In China, land is owned by the country,
which is owned by CCP, while CCP is controlled by only several persons.
It is very unreasonable, but involves everyone’s vital interests.
If you buy a house with the right of use for only 70 years
or 40/50 years, then where are you going after that?
China’s future unrest will start from real estate,
which involves a basic ownership issue.”
Media around the world have noticed the recent mass protest
against Putin in 60 cities in Russia, a once communist country, with around 30,000 protesters in Moscow.
But the World Journal believed that considering the
current democratic system,
another Tiananmen Incident will not happen in Russia,
nor will Putin become a second Deng Xiaoping.
Du Yanlin pointed out that China and Russia are different
since one is totalitarian while the other is authoritarian.
Despite the personal authority, the Russian system is still democratic,
and Putin cannot decide everything in a large scale.
Putin will not dare to dispatch tanks on Moscow streets.
But the CCP is totalitarian and thus will dare do anything.
The Dongfang Daily highlighted the old Chinese saying;
“people are like water, which can float boats, but can also make them sink.”
Once the huge wave comes, which vessel can hold it?
Trying to maintain stability is just useless.
The “Jasmine Revolution”, which happened in China at the
beginning of this year was a rehearsal for the real play.
The only question is who, and where, will the fire next year be lit,
and what will China’s future be after the unrest?
NTD reporters Qin Xue and Guo Jing
