【新唐人2011年11月12日讯】南中国海局势最近又出现紧张的态势，南海周边国家的海上纠纷依然不断。南中国海会不会突然爆发军事冲突，再次成为海内外关注的焦点。对于近期中国举行部队演习，日本也有防范演习等，外界担忧，南中国海将突然爆发军事冲突。
南海海上争端，中国内部主战的声音越来越强，中国的外交政策是不是会有所变化，成为海内外关注的焦点。
中共喉舌《人民日报》旗下的《环球时报》发表社论表示，海上争端国当前制造的麻烦，是在不断消耗中国国内的政治团结。但中国也不能只会谈判，必要时应当“杀一儆百”。
评论员文昭表示，对中共来讲，当前第一优先的是确保“十八大”权力交接的顺利进行，现在中共是“求稳惧变”的时刻。
文昭：“从中共决策层的心态来讲，它不希望在这个权力交接时发生太重大变化的因素，这样会使它的权力交接的过程变得比较困难，变得不可预测，更多风险，它不希望这样。”
11月6号，日本海上保安厅在长崎外海逮捕了中国渔船船长张天雄。长崎地检以47岁的张天雄违反日本《渔业法》（逃避登船检查）提出简易起诉，长崎简易法院命令张天雄缴纳30万日元的罚金。张天雄在缴付罚金后，9号下午在日本巡逻船的伴随下驶离了长崎港。
文昭表示，南海小摩擦一直存在，但是现在，南海周边的一些小国，并不想主动挑衅中国大陆。
评论员文昭：“现在南海冲突主导权其实是在中国大陆这一边，它只要是不去破坏这个现状的话，就是说别人都已经占领的地方啊，它不去想改变这个现状的话，这个冲突就不会升级。”
不过，最近大陆解放军却进行了一系列军事演习。11月10号，广州军区举行罕见规模军演，中南五省区同时开打。尽管军方没有解释演习目地，但观察人士很容易从演习的内容、地点、时机等联想到中共在南海面临的形势。
另外，最近中共在炮兵部队也有动作，中共把原炮兵指挥学院与原炮兵学院南京分院合并，成立副军级的南京炮兵学院。同时，今年中共还推出优惠政策，吸引大学生参军，并且放宽新兵入伍条件。
文昭：“它的军事力量目前还不足以，我是觉得它军队还不足以应付一个很严重的政治后果。就是说能打赢是没问题的，但是你打过之后，出现严重的这种政治后果，它会带来中国周边的安全环境急剧的变化。”
对于中共在南海主权争端，所进行的一系列动作已经引起了外界和邻国的关注。《法国国际广播电台》认为，如果南海周边国家在海上的摩擦不加收敛，一些纠纷频繁的海域突然爆发军事冲突是迟早的事。
另外，日本《读卖新闻》报导，日本为防中共突袭，预定11月10号起举行大型军演。并首次自北海道调配陆上自卫队最精锐的第7师团，以及最先进的90式坦克等，赶往日本最南端的九州参演。日本传媒表示，这是日本在去年修订防御大纲中，明确将中共列为“最大假想敌”后的大型军演。
与此同时，日本和韩国12号将在对马海峡举行联合军演，预计共有约1千名士兵参加，同样针对中共为假想敌。此外，隶属美国国会的美中经济及安全检讨委员会，将于16号建议国会立法，要求行政部门接受台湾采购F-16C/D战机。
另据报导，今年东亚峰会将于11月19号在印度尼西亚召开。美、俄两国将首次作为成员国与会。预计峰会绕不开南中国海主权争端。
新唐人记者李静、唐睿、王明宇采访报导。
Sudden outbreak of military conflict over South China Sea?
A renewal of the tense situation recently escalated in the South China Sea region.
Territorial disputes between neighboring countries
still continue to develop. Will the region see a sudden outbreak of military conflict? This question once again became a focus of attention in China and overseas. Recent military exercises were undertaken in China,
with preventative exercises in Japan. There are concerns about a possible sudden outbreak of
military conflict in the South China Sea.
Within China, voices are growing that favor a war to settle
this dispute over the South China Sea. Is there any change with the foreign policy of Chinse Communist Party (CCP) authorities? This question has become a focus of attention at home and abroad.
Global Times under People’s Daily, a CCP propaganda
media, published an editorial claiming the current maritime territorial disputes have created troubles that kept consuming the domestic political unity in China.
The editorial claimed that China cannot only negotiate,
but should “kill one to warn one hundred", when necessary.
Commentator Wen Zhao said that the CCP’s current priority
is ensuring a smooth power transfer at its 18th Congress. Now is a critical moment with the CCP seeking stability
and fearing change.
Wen Zhao: “The mentality of the CCP top-level does not want too much change to happen at the moment when it makes a transfer of power. Or else, its power transfer process will be more difficult,
unpredictable and more risky, which is not the CCP’s hope. “
On November 6, Japan Coast Guard arrested Zhang Tianxiong, a Chinese fishing boat captain. Nagasaki District Public Prosecutors Office took a
judicial proceedings against Zhang, who was charged with
violating Japan’s Fishery Law (to avoid on-board searches) Nagasaki summary court ordered Zhang to pay a 300,000 yen fine.
On November 9, after making payment,
Zhang left Japan, accompanied by a Japanese patrol boat.
Wen Zhao commented that there has been little friction
over the South China Sea in the past.
But now, some small surrounding countries do not want
to take the initiative to provoke the Mainland China.
Wen Zhao: “The dominant power in the South China Sea conflict is the CCP authorities.
If it retains the status quo, in other words,
for those territories currently occupied by other countries, if it retains this status quo, the conflict won’t escalate. “
Recently, CCP’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a series of military exercises.
On November 10, a rare large-scale military exercises were
held in the Guangzhou Military Region, covering five provinces in the Middle-South China. Although the military authorities did not explain their intention, the exercise’s content,
location and timing easily enabled observers to associate
them with the situation that the CCP is facing in the South China Sea.
Aside from this, CCP’s Artillery Corps also had recent activity. Artillery Command College and
PLA Artillery College were merged to set up Nanjing Artillery
College, which is at the level of deputy corps. This year, the CCP initiated preferential policies to attract
university students to join the army, and eased the requirements of army’s new recruits.
Wen Zhao: “So far, its military power is not strong enough
to cope with a very serious political consequence.
That is to say, it has no problem to win the war,
but the aftermath will be a serious political consequence,
which will bring a great change to the security environment around China. “
Regarding sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea, a series of actions conducted by the CCP has caused concerns from the international community and
neighboring countries. Radio France Internationale commented that if the surrounding nations do not inhibit the friction over the South China Sea,
some territorial waters with frequent disputes
will suddenly break out in military conflict, sooner or later.
According to Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reporters, in order to avoid CCP’s swooping,
Japan scheduled to hold a large-scale military exercises
from November 10. For the first time, the most elite No.7 Division of
Japan Maritime Self Defense Force and
the most advanced Type 90 tanks were deployed from
Hokkaido, to join the military exercises at island of Kyushu.
Japanese media said that in the 2010 amendment of Japan’s National Defense Program Outline,
the CCP was specifically set as
“the biggest imaginary enemy".
Meanwhile, on November 12, joint military exercises
between Japan and South Korea will be held in the Tsushima Strait. About 1,000 soldiers are expected to attend. In the same way, the CCP was targeted as the imaginary enemy. On November 16, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission will suggest that U.S. Congress enact legislation
and will call on the executive branch to accept Taiwan’s
procurement of F-16C / D fighters.
2011 East Asia Summit is reported to be being held
on November 19 in Indonesia.
The U.S. and Russia will attend the meeting as members for the first time. The Summit is expected to cover the topic of
sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea.
NTD reporters Li Jing, Tang Rui and Wang Mingyu
