【新唐人2011年11月7日讯】香港中文大学教授郎咸平上个月在沈阳举行一场闭门演讲，用数据证明中共政府已经陷入经济危机，濒临破产。有学者说郎咸平的话毫不稀奇，很多专家学者都有同感。
香港中文大学教授郎咸平10月22号在沈阳演讲，原本和出席者约定不准录音或在微博上发表，但还是被流传了出来。郎咸平在演讲中指出，大陆官方公布的9.1%的经济增长率和6.2通胀率都是假数据，大陆当局的经济实际上已经破产。
郎咸平：“9.1是假的，通胀率6.2也是假的，起码16。好了就算这两个数据9%的GDP增长，6%的通货膨胀。你晓不晓得，GDP增长怎么算的各位？9减掉6你懂不懂啊。实际增长率按照我们党的说法不到3%……如果通胀是16%呢？GDP增长是多少？-7各位。就这么严重。”
郎咸平说，目前中共所有的政策，就是在掩盖病入膏肓的经济。他以经济上的采购经理指数说明，中国早在7月已经进入经济萧条。
郎咸平：“制造业，经理人采购指数相继公布，这个数字在50以上表示经济正常增长，50以下代表进入萧条。中美欧三国我现在告诉你，全世界第一个走入萧条低于50的是谁？是中国，7月份开始。领先全世界探底，各位听过这个消息吗？没听过，为什么呢？不准报导。”
现在中国股市低靡，从四月底3000多点跌到10月2313点最低点，但其他的市场如楼市、汽车、奢侈品、古董、艺术品等确实火红的很，这种冰火两重天的怪象，只有中国是这样，原因就是经济支柱的制造业出现了危机。
郎咸平：“根据《经济观察报》的实地调研结果显示，江浙地区服装行业开工率不到三分之一，塑胶工业50%，橡胶工业60%，大豆榨滤行业不到30%。我自己的研究报告显示，我们自己团队做的报告显示，海宁皮革城，皮革加工工厂目前停工60%。”
他还举出，中国电厂总装机容量9.16亿千瓦，但只是用40%的产能，而截至6月20号，中国各个港口积压的铁矿石，高达9,890万吨，已经超过了金融海啸时期的7,098万吨。这些数据在说明现实中国经济已经开始萧条。
郎咸平指出，中国70%的GDP其实是靠基础设施的建设，而这些实际上是没有经济效益的。他举例说，在前苏联解体之前，70%的GDP靠军事工程来支撑，现在，中国的情况很像当时的苏联，只要经济支柱制造业垮了，没有实际效益的“钢筋水泥”基建充场面的经济数据就再也撑不下去。
郎咸平这场4个多小时的录音在youtube上5天，已经吸引了将近八万的点击率。许多网友都如梦惊醒。也有许多网友担心郎咸平讲真话的后果。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田表示，郎咸平的“大陆破产论”不是危言耸听，很多专家和学者早就在谈论中国经济的吊诡和危机。
谢田表示：“这对于我们海外许多研究中国经济的人来说，一点都不奇怪。事实上我们在过去2年中一直在谈论这个问题。”
谢田说，中国大部分民众的收入40-50%要用到吃饭和日常消费上，如果日用品都涨价，从实际购买力这个角度来算的话，扣除通货膨胀因素，中国的经济是下降。但是很多中国人还被蒙在鼓里，是因为中国人从国内看不到真实的数据，只活在中共的谎言里。
谢田：“因为中共在经济领域一贯的造假，从上到下的造假，这是连中共的副总理自己都承认的，像中共的副总理他说，他在辽宁省的时候，他是省长，他都不相信省里面报导出来的经济数据，他是自己去看硬性的数据，比方说，铁路交通运输、发电量这些东西来估计。”
谢田说，中共各级官员“数字出官、官出数字”，这都是由来已久的现象。而一个国家治理成这个样子，非常可悲。
新唐人记者吴惟、李若琳综合报导。
Lang Xianping: China’s Economic Depression Has Begun
On October 22, Lang Xianping, an economics professor
at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, gave a private talk in Shenyang City in Liaoning Province.
He cited statistics showing why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is trapped in an economic crisis and is at brink of bankruptcy.
Some scholars say that Lang’s conclusion is not surprising at all,
for they themselves hold the same the view.
Lang Xianping’s speech, which was widely circulated online,
pointed out that
the CCP’s official published growth rate of 9.1% and
its inflation rate of 6.2%, are false.
Instead he says, China as a nation, is bankrupt.
Lang Xianping: “The 9.1% figure is false.The inflation rate of
6.2% is also false. Inflation has reached at least 16%!
Do you know how to calculate the gross domestic product
(GDP) figure? Nine minus six.
The actual growth rate, according to the CCP’s data,
should be less than 3%.
What if the inflation rate was 16%?
What’s the GDP growth rate? Minus seven percent. The situation is this serious.”
Professor Lang said that all of the CCP’s current policies are
covering up the deep, murky reality of China’s economy.
He cited the Purchasing Managers Index to explain that
back to early July, China’s economy entered a recession.
Lang Xianping: “The Purchasing Managers Index,
which was just released, showed a reading above 50.
This indicates normal economic growth, while below 50
means the country is entering into a recession.
Now among China, the U.S., and Europe, let me tell you,
the first country that has gone into recession is China.
It started in July. But has anyone reported the news?
No. Why? No one is allowed to report it.”
Now, China’s stock market fell from 3,000 points in April,
to 2,313 points in October.
But other markets such as property, cars, luxury goods,
antiques, and art, among others, are really booming.
The co-existence of such a bleak winter and boiling summer
can only take place in China.
The basic reason is that China’s manufacturing Industry crisis
has just begun.
Lang Xianping: “Field research conducted by
The Economic Observer, a weekly Chinese newspaper,
shows that the production rate of the apparel industry
in Jiangsu Prov. and Zhejiang Prov., is less than 33%.
The plastic industry is 50%, the rubber industry is 60%,
the soybeans extraction industry is less than 30%.
My own survey shows that at present,
60% of all Leather-processing plants have shut down in Haining, China."
Professor Lang also cited that although the total capacity of
China’s power plants is 916 million kilowatts, the utilization rate is only 40%.
By June 20, the volume of iron ore piled up in China’s
various ports has reached 98.9 million tons,
far more than the 7,098 tons imported
during the period of financial crisis of last few years.
This data shows that in reality, in China,
an economic depression has begun.
Lang pointed out that 70% of China’s GDP came from
infrastructure construction, which, in reality, has not brought any economic benefits to the country.
For example, before the former Soviet Union collapsed,
70% of its GDP relied on military engineering projects.
The current situation in China is very similar to that of
former Soviet Union, at that time.
Once China’s manufacturing industry pillar collapses,
the country’s seemingly impressive infrastructure construction, won’t last longer.
Within five days of the online posting of Professor Lang’s
over- 4-hour speech recording, nearly 80,000 hits were racked up.
Many netizens have awakened from their dreams.
Others expressed concern over the consequences of Lang telling the truth.
Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken Business School,
at University of South Carolina,
said that Lang Xianping’s theory of China’s bankruptcy,
is not alarmist in nature.
Many experts and scholars have talked about China’s
economic paradox and crisis.
Xie Tian: “For us overseas researchers of China’s economy,
this is not surprising news at all.
In fact, we’ve been talking about this over the past two years.”
Xie says that most Chinese people spend 40-50% of
their income on eating and daily necessities.
When the price of daily necessities rises, the actual purchasing
power adjusted for inflation, shows that China’s economy is declining.
However, many Chinese people are still kept in the dark,
for they cannot obtain real data from the CCP reports.
They are, in fact, living in the darkness of the CCP’s lies.
Xie Tian: “In the economic field, the CCP has always
been making up lies, from top to bottom.
Even the CCP’s vice-premier admitted that when he was
governor of Liaoning Province, he did not believe the CCP’s reported economic data.
Instead, he used concrete statistics such as rail transportation
volume and power generation figures, and the like, to determine the true state of the economy.”
Xie Tian commented that there now exists a long-standing
phenomenon with CCP officials at all levels, namely,
“Figures determine an official’s position
and an official reports figures." A country under such governance is really sad.
NTD reporters Wu Wei and Li Ruilin
