【新唐人2011年8月11日讯】中国通货膨胀7月份继续攀升，创下了3年多来的新高，食品价格飞涨仍然是通胀高升的主要推动力，不断加剧贫富分化和数亿贫困人口的生存危机。外界分析指出，北京当局在继续紧缩货币政策，与阻止国内经济形势进一步恶化之间，陷入了严重的两难困境。
8月9号，北京国家统计局公布，7月份全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨6.5%，创下37个月以来新高，城市上涨6.2%，农村上涨7.1%﹔其中，食品价格上涨14.8%，粮食价格上涨12.4%，猪肉价格上涨56.7%。
加州大学圣地亚哥分校的中国经济教授贝里．诺敦指出，中国通胀虽然持续上升，但最近几个月的升幅明显下降。他和海内外一些分析师预计，中国通胀可能会在今年晚些时候出现拐点回落。
但是，另有许多经济专家认为，北京当局的通胀数据并不可信。
北京天则经济研究所专家：“因为我们国家一般来说它报6.5%的话，实际上应该更高。现在也没有说物价有下降的什么其他消息，就是一些因素，我们有一些物价继续上扬的因素还是有的，比如说，我们到年底社会保障房要开工1000万套。”
据中国肉类协会统计，中国是世界上最大的猪肉生产和消费国，一般家庭购买猪肉占肉类总购买量的60%。猪肉价格飙涨让民众怨声载道。
沈晗耀(上海华顿经济研究院院长、教授)：“农产品可能因为饲料的价格，还有人工的价格，现在持续在上涨，这个不可能回去了，肯定再想像以前一样吃廉价菜、廉价肉、廉价鱼，这些都是不可能的了。”
通胀让普通老百姓的财富严重缩水。《南方都市报》8月2号发表文章质问，为何“170多道文件”未能扭转“通胀猛于虎”的现状？
徐彦(杭州市人大代表独立参选人)：“很多饭店不做猪肉的菜了，因为成本涨得太厉害。第二方面是，可能去年开始CPI高涨以后，一般所谓最低收入的能够直接感受到物价上涨。但是今年以后，中产阶级能够意识到这个问题，包括很多企业家。”
7月份农村的通胀比城市水平更为严重。
温家宝6月访问伦敦时表示，要将通胀控制在4%以内有困难，但控制在5%以下可能做到。而在8月8号的国务院常务会议上，温家宝没有再提把稳定物价作为“首要任务”，只表示要“努力把物价涨幅降下来”。
花旗集团大中华区首席经济学家沈明高表示，通胀形势严峻原本会促使央行出台进一步紧缩政策。但目前恰逢欧美日经济前景高度不确定，业内人士因此预计，中国或延缓出台加息等举措。
近日，《人民日报》海外版发表了央行货币政策委员夏斌的文章，公开支持中国彻底告别负利率。分析人士指出，这可能是央行进一步加息的暗示。
国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松表示，一方面，加息有利于抑制通胀；同时，加息只是矫正负利率，缩小和市场融资利率差距的政策动作，对实体经济的冲击有限。
摩根大通中国区全球市场业务主席李晶在研究报告中说，中国决策层目前面临两难，一方面需要侧重偏紧的货币政策以遏制通胀，另一方面也需应对中小企业贷款难的现象进一步蔓延。
吴惠林(台湾中华经济研究院研究员)：“所以我们最近看到中小企业出现了一片倒闭潮，在生产方面是受到蛮大的影响，企业的经营，人民的生活当然也会往下降，所以这会进一步衍生出严重的社会问题。”
旅美民主人士魏京生发表文章指出，改革经济的前提是改变政治，专制政治决定了市场竞争的关键因素不是科技和管理，而是关系和腐败。必须改变一党专制的政治，中国才有出路。
新唐人记者周玉林、李元翰采访报导。
Inflation Hits a New High,
China’s inflation climbed to a record high in July
and hit a new, 3-year high.
Food prices increased and are still the main driver
behind the current inflation, which further widens the gap
between the rich and poor and brings into question
the survival of hundreds of millions of poor people.
Western analysts point out that while Beijing continues to
tighten its monetary policy
to prevent further deterioration of the domestic economy,
it has experienced a snag.
On August 9, Beijing National Bureau of Statistics announced that
July’s consumer price index (CPI) for the country rose 6.5%
year-over-year, to a record high over the course of 37 months.
Beijing’s CPI rose 6.2%, with the countryside’s CPI rising 7.1%.
Food prices rose 14.8%, grain rose 12.4%,
and pork rose 56.7%.
Barry Naughton, professor of Chinese Economics at
the University of California at San Diego,
pointed out that although inflation continued to rise in China,
its rate of growth decreased significantly in recent months.
He and some analysts expect inflation to decline later this year.
However, some analysts do not think Beijing’s data is credible.
Beijing Unirule Institute of Economics Experts said:
“In our country, the actual number is higher than the reported 6.5%.
We don’t expect that prices will drop.
There are factors that show that some prices will continue to rise.
For example, we will start at the end of 2011 to
build 10 million social security housing units.
According to the China Meat Association’s (CMA) statistics,
China is the world’s largest pork producer and consumer of
pork in the world,
with the average family pork purchase
accounting for 60% of the family’s total meat purchase.
Soaring pork price have caused serious complaints in China.
Professor Shen Hanyao, Director of Shanghai-based
Warton Economic Institute, said:
“Agricultural products continue to rise,
probably due to price increases in feeds and labor.
These prices will not retreat and it is impossible to have cheap
food, meat or fish like we had in the past."
Inflation seriously shrunk people’s assets.
Southern Metropolis Daily’s article on August 2 questioned why
over 170 laws failed to resolve the serious inflation problem.
Xu Yan, Hangzhou City independent candidate for the
National People’s Congress:
“A lot of restaurants do not sell pork dishes,
because pork costs too much.
When the CPI increased last year,
low-income people felt the impact head-on.
This year, middle-class people are also experiencing this problem,
including many businessmen," reported Radio Free Asia (RFA).
When Wen Jiabao visited London in June, he said that it is
hard to keep inflation at 4% or less, but 5% can be achieved.
At the State Council Standing Committee meeting on August 8,
Wen did not mention price stability as a “priority" task.
He only talked about working harder to keep prices down."
Citigroup’s chief economist for Greater China, Shen Minggao:
“The grim inflation should have prompted China’s central
bank to issue policies to further tighten the economy.
But with the uncertain economic outlook of Europe, the U.S.,
and Japan, China might delay increasing interest rates.”
Recently, People’s Daily published an article by
People’s Bank Monetary Policy Committee member, Xia Bin.
The article supports China farewell to negative interest rates.
Analysts pointed out that this can be a hint that
the People’s Bank will raise interest rates further.
Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the
State Council Development Research Center:
“On one hand, interest rate increases help curb inflation.
At the same time, it is a correction of a negative interest rate,
reducing the interest gap with market money gathering. So it has a limited impact on the economy.”
JP Morgan Chase’s Chair of global markets of China, Li Jing,
said in a research report:
“China’s decision makers face a dilemma. On one hand,
they need to tighten the monetary policy to curb inflation;
on the other hand, they need to address the difficulty that
small and mid-size businesses have in getting loans.
Wu Huilin, a researcher at the Taiwan’s
Chunghwa Institution of Economic Research:
“So we see lots of small and mid-size enterprises close,
thus, our lives are seriously impacted.
This will further cause serious social problems."
US-based democracy activist, Wei Jingsheng, published
an article stating that “The basis of economic reform is political reform.
The authoritarian system caused market competition based on
relationships and corruption, not technology and management.
China must change the one-party dictatorship to get a way out.”
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin and Li Yuanhan
