【新唐人2011年7月4日讯】7月1号中共90周年党庆，中共现任和前任领导层倾巢出席，唯独不见前总书记江泽民。香港媒体披露江泽民病危的消息，并指出他对十八大人事安排的影响力减弱。而胡锦涛“七一”讲话，搬出承认“文革”和“左倾”错误的两个《决议》，被解读是对薄熙来“唱红运动”和“毛派”首次表态否定。
近年来中共重大活动江泽民几乎都高调出席，包括北京奥运、建政60周年阅兵等。但自从去年以来，江泽民再也没有在国内媒体和官方活动露过面。
近日，香港中共传媒《凤凰网》援引来自中共高层的消息说，江泽民患上大病，来势凶险，而且年事已高，身体健康每况愈下。
《苹果日报》引述广东知名作家北风的分析说，以江泽民的张显个性，这次他缺席如此重要的90周年党庆，只有两种可能：“一是病重或挂了，二是没戏了”。
近来，中共各派系角逐明年十八大的权力斗争又趋激烈，尤其是薄熙来发起的“唱红运动”，从重庆推广到全国。美国《华尔街日报》也说，薄熙来希望能利用这个运动来进入政治局常委。
原香港《文汇报》驻东北办事处主任姜维平指出，薄熙来的“唱红打黑”，目地和做法都是在效仿毛泽东搞文革，薄熙来甚至被“毛派”称为“薄泽东”。
而在9名政治局常委中，除了团派胡锦涛、李克强与温家宝，其他属于江系的6名常委，外加归属团派的组织部长李源潮，都先后到重庆表态支持薄熙来。
姜维平：“这个表态应该讲是在薄熙来的一系列举动的胁迫下，他阴险之处就在这里。他表面用这些东西逼迫你，你必须来向我这里朝拜，因为你朝拜表面是朝拜毛泽东嘛，归顺毛泽东思想，归顺党的凝聚力，不是归顺我薄熙来。但实际上是，原本政坛上边缘化的薄熙来，现在又进入了全世界、全国人的关注目光的焦点当中。”
今年4、5月，温家宝指出，“文革遗毒”和“封建残余”是阻碍政治改革的两股势力。被外界认为是针对薄熙来提出批评。
而多次呼吁政改的温家宝，遭到保守派的重重围攻。6月15号，温家宝办公室主任丘小雄被迫调离。不过，前国家新闻出版总署署长杜导正透露，胡锦涛并没有对温家宝改变态度。
6月26号，团派主将、广东省委书记汪洋表示，“增强忧患意识”比只是“歌颂”更重要。公开向薄熙来唱反调。
胡锦涛在“七一”讲话中，除了进一步阐述忧患意识攸关“党的生死存亡”，还特别提到两个《关于党的若干历史问题的决议》，他说，应对曾经犯过的“文革”和“左倾”错误“牢牢记取”教训。
香港中共传媒《凤凰卫视》解读说，胡锦涛“七一”重要讲话，“实际上是在告诉大家，要解决现在的矛盾，不可能、不可以用文革的方式。”
7月1号，薄熙来在重庆的党庆大会上辩解说，唱几首红歌，就有人说三道四，是不是回到“文革”啦？唱这些歌何罪之有？
《参与网》和《博讯网》刊载分析认为，胡锦涛搬出了两个《决议》，暗示毛派“唱红”不要搞过头，复辟马列毛左派是不允许的。胡锦涛再次强调“不折腾”，就是指不能推广“重庆模式”。
美国普林斯顿中国学社执行主席陈奎德说，薄熙来也做了一件事情：
美国普林斯顿中国学社执行主席陈奎德：“就是说他把政治上的包括意识形态的斗争，政治上的斗争挑出来了，而且使得政治派别你不能躲闪，各自都要亮出自己的底牌，或者自己基本的颜色。所以说，这一下，中国的政治恐怕就不会像过去，像邓小平后期说的不争论这样沉寂，这样没有生趣，恐怕是会有一段相当热闹的时期。”
海外分析指出，随着江泽民的政治干预力急剧降低，江系、胡温派系与太子党的势力将面临分化重整，“毛派”、“左派”将逐渐式微。而在各种火山一样的危机冲击下，中共的出路只有和平转型与解体。
新唐人记者李元翰、萧宇综合报导。
No Jiang on 90th CCP Anniversary
On July 1, the major 90th anniversary celebration
of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) founding,
current and former leaders of CCP were all present
except for former General Secretary Jiang Zemin.
Hong Kong media reports news of Jiang’s dying,
and that his personnel influence has declined
due to arrangements of the eighteenth congress.
Hu Jintao’s July 1st speech recognized
Cultural Revolution’ and leftist’ errors,
which is interpreted as a denial
of Bo’s “Red Song Movement” and the Maoists.
In recent years, Jiang Zemin attended all CCP’s
high-profile events including the Beijing Olympics
and the 60th anniversary parade of China’s regime.
Since last year however, Jiang had not attended
official activities or showed up in domestic media.
Recently, the Hong Kong “Phoenix" website cited
news from high CCP levels about Jiang suffering
from a serious illness and being in danger,
with the aged Jiang’s physical health deteriorated.
Apple Daily quoted a well-known writer, Beifeng,
that considering Jiang’s showing off personality,
his absence in the important 90th anniversary
celebration of CCP has only two possibilities:
“One, he is ill or dead, and two, the game is over".
Recently, the CCP factions competing for power
in 18th Congress next year got increasingly intense,
especially the Bo-initiated “Red Songs Movement",
spreading from Chongqing across the country.
US’ Wall Street Journal said, Bo Xilai is hoping
to use this campaign to enter
the Politburo’s Standing Committee.
The former Wen Wei Po’ Northeast Office Director
Jiang Weiping said Bo’s “Red Song Movement"
has similar purpose and methods
as Mao’s Cultural Revolution had.
Bo was called Maoist or even “Bo Zedong".
Of the nine Politburo Standing Committee members,
all except Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Wen Jiabao,
together with Li Yuanshuo, the Organizational
Bureau Director, went to Chongqing to support Bo.
Jiang Weiping told RFA, “This statement should be
under Bo’s pressure, Bo’s sinister place is there.
Superficially, you have to come to worship Bo,
because you worship Mao Zedong and his thoughts
as well as the cohesion of the party allegiance,
not to pledge loyalty to Bo.
Originally marginalized in the political arena,
now Bo became focus of Chinese and the world."
On May 2011, Premier Wen pointed out
“the legacy of the Cultural Revolution" and “feudal"
are two forces that hindered political reforms.
This was taken as criticism against Bo Xilai.
Wen repeatedly called for a political reform,
but was sieged by the conservatives heavily.
On June 15, the Director of Premier Wen’s Office,
Qiu Xiaoxiong was forced to transfer elsewhere.
However, former Director of Press and Publication,
Du Daozheng said, Hu did not change
his attitude towards Wen.
On June 26, Wang Yang, Guangdong Province’s
party secretary said, “enhancing grief awareness"
is more important than just “praise",
openly opposing Bo.
Hu’s July 1st anniversary speech further elaborated
on the sense of death, related to “party’s survival".
In particular, he referred to two resolutions
“on the CCP’s several historical issues".
He said that CCP should never forget the lessons
of the Cultural Revolution and the leftists’ mistakes.
Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV said that Hu Jintao’s speech
on July 1 “is saying that in order to resolve
current conflicts one could not and it is impossible
to use the methods of the Cultural Revolution."
On July 1, Bo argued on the party celebration
in Chongqing, that some people make
irresponsible remarks about his red songs campaign.
Is it back to the Cultural Revolution now?
What’s wrong with singing red songs?
Canyu and Boxun websites published analyses
about Hu’s referral to the two “resolutions",
implying that the Maoists “red songs movement"
should not go to extremes and not restore Marxism.
Hu once again stressed “not to turn side to side",
or not to promote the “Chongqing model."
Chen Kuide, Chairman of the Chinese Association
in Princeton, said Bo Xilai also did another thing.
Chen Kuide (Chairman, Princeton’s Chinese Society)
told RFA: “They brought out political ideology
conflicts into the open, and political factions
can not escape but show their cards or basic colors.
So it will not be like in China’s political past,
quiet, like during Deng’s time.
I am afraid now will be a very busy period."
Overseas political analysts have pointed out
that Jiang’s political power has reduced drastically.
Hu, Jiang and princlings’ forces will face changes.
Maoist and leftist will gradually decline.
In this volcanic crisis, the only way out for the CCP
is the peaceful transformation and disintegration.
NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu
