【新唐人2014年08月29日訊】8月27號，俄羅斯外交部長拉夫羅夫在一次非正式的會面上表示，「沒有必要擔心中共對俄羅斯提出領土要求」。拉夫羅夫的這番講話經過俄羅斯國家電視新聞頻道播出後，在輿論界引起反響。評論認為，從中可以解讀出中俄目前的微妙關係。
「沒有必要擔心中國對俄羅斯提出領土要求。」這是8月27號，在特維爾地區，拉夫羅夫在和「全俄羅斯青年論壇」參加者們，舉行非正式會面時說的一句話。《BBC中文網》說，俄羅斯國家的電視新聞頻道播出了拉夫羅夫的講話。
拉夫羅夫的這番講話曝光後，海內外媒體紛紛轉載報導。當天，《BBC》引述《泰晤士報》評論版博伊斯的文章說，中共目前比以往任何時候都更需要俄國，一系列跡象都表明，雙方在重新調整戰略定位。
中共為甚麼把蒲亭當回事呢？文章說，現實的原因包括，蒲亭將爭取連任到2018年，而習近平的任期會到2022年，以及「離2034年很近了」。
「2034年」，是一位俄國的中國事務學者預言的，第三次世界大戰在中美之間爆發的年份。這位學者還分析，中共需要連續20多年保持軍費兩位數的增長，才能與美國和日本在東亞的軍事實力齊平。另外，中共還得在此之前搞定三件事：一、降低對西方市場的依賴；二、確保原材料的陸地進口通道順暢；三、找好強大的盟友並夯實關係。
時政評論員伍凡表示，中共現在是東部、西部、南部「三面臨敵」。如果中、日、美之間交鋒，中共現在基本沒有幫手。
時政評論員伍凡：「俄國人會幫中國去打美國嗎？不會的。俄國人希望你在中國美國之間，中國打敗。那麼俄國在南邊沒有一個強大的壓力。這是從它們內心裡邊是這樣要求的。所以它也不會幫你。」
伍凡指出，中共從戰略上不希望北方再有一個敵人。所以，對於中共來說，現在不是向俄羅斯提出領土要求的時候。
時政評論員伍凡：「那麼中俄之間有沒有往來，有啊，起碼有邊界還連接著，還有經濟往來，貿易往來還有金融往來，做生意。但是它不會結成聯盟。所以在這種狀況下，拉夫羅夫可以肯定講，你為了要對付美國和日本，你怎麼可能再跟俄國人要領土呢？不增加敵人了嗎？」
今年5月份，俄羅斯總統蒲亭開始訪華，中俄雙方不僅簽訂了「經濟貿易協議」，同時還進行了軍事演習，被外界看作是結盟的信號。不過，西方國家指出，中俄兩國在領土方面存在矛盾，因此，拉夫羅夫的這番講話，被認為是對外界的一次回應。
時事評論員藍述：「俄羅斯的外長談這個事情，從另外一個角度上我們可以證實，俄國方面已經從北京方面獲得了默契。也就是北京高層不會從此事上去做文章。」
不過，博伊斯在文章中指出，對於心懷焦慮的中共，俄國扮演了日益親密的夥伴的角色，但是蒲亭跟戈爾巴喬夫正好相反。俄國正在拉攏中共，密切俄中關係，而西方必須說服北京，不跟著蒲亭的指揮棒轉。
博伊斯強調，中共總書記習近平跟蒲亭簽約的話，最終會發現在深水區撲騰掙扎的是自己。
「摩根士丹利」4月份曾發佈研究報告稱，俄羅斯經濟已接近於進入衰退週期。8月26號，據《俄羅斯新聞社》報導，「俄羅斯經濟發展部宏觀經濟分析局」局長奧列格•扎索夫（Oleg Zasov）說，經濟已接近衰退。
採訪/朱智善 編輯/凱欣 後制/李智遠
Russian Official Reveals China and Russia’s Delicate Relations
On August 27, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said
that there is no need to worry about the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP)”s territorial claims against Russia.
Lavrov’s remarks caused reverberations in public opinion
after broadcasted via Russian state television.
Commentators say it reveals the delicate relationship
between China and Russia.
＂No need to worry about the CCP＂s territorial claims
against Russia.＂
This is what Lavrov said on Aug. 27 during an informal
meeting with participants of the “All-Russian Youth Forum"
held in Russia’s Tver region.
The BBC’s Chinese language website reported that Russia’s
state news channel broadcasted Lavrov’s speech.
Overseas media widely reported Lavrov’s remarks.
On the same day, BBC quoted an article by Roger Boyes of
british newspaper, The Times, saying that the CCP needs
Russia more than ever and that a series of factors show that
the two sides are re-adjusting their strategic positioning.
Why does the CCP take Putin seriously?
The article said Putin will seek re-election to stay up to 2018,
while Xi Jinping’s tenure goes to 2022, very close to 2034.
According to prediction of a Russian scholar of China affairs,
World War III between the U.S. and China will happen in 2034.
The scholar also analyzed that the CCP has to maintain
double-digit growth in military spending for 20 consecutive
years to keep up with U.S. and Japan in East Asia.
In addition, the CCP needs to get three things done:
First, to reduce dependence on Western markets;
Second, to ensure smooth channels of raw materials over land;
Third, to find good strong allies and reinforce relationships.
Commentator Wu Fan says the CCP faces enemies
to the East, West and South.
If confrontation happens between China, Japan, and the U.S.,
the CCP has no help.
Wu Fan: ＂Will the Russians help China to fight the U.S.?
No, they want China defeated in a battle with the U.S.
Then Russia wouldn’t have a strong threat in the south.
This is what they need, so they will not help.”
Wu says the CCP does not want
another enemy in the North.
So for the CCP, it is not the time to raise the issue of territory.
Wu Fan: ＂Are there any activities between China and Russia?
Yes, there are economic relations and trade relations,
as well as financial business.
But they will not form a coalition.
So in this situation, Lavrov said how can you ask for territory
from Russia while dealing with the U.S. and Japan?
Won’t that add more enemies?＂
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China in May.
China and Russia signed an Economic and Trade Agreement,
and also conducted joint military exercises.
The outside world regarded this as a sign of alliance.
However, Western countries indicated that there are conflicts
between China and Russia in terms of territory.
Lavrov’s remarks are considered to be a confirmation of this
to the outside world.
Lan Shu, commentator: “Russia’s Foreign Minister words
have confirmed Russia has an understanding with Beijing.
Beijing’s high-levels will not continue to make a fuss on this."
However, Boyes says in his article that with the CCP anxious,
Russia plays the role of an increasingly intimate partner.
But Putin is the opposite of the former soviet leader.
Boyes says Russia wants to win over the CCP and
build a close Russian-Chinese relationship,
and the West must convince Beijing not to follow Putin’s will.
Boyes emphasized that if Xi Jinping signed any treaty
with Putin, he will eventually find himself suffering for it.
Financial services corporation Morgan Stanley reported in
April 2014 that the Russian economy is close to a recession.
Interview/Zhu ZhiShan Edit/KaiXin Post-Production/Li ZhiYuan
