【新唐人2014年08月26日訊】中共官場有一句口頭禪「上有政策，下有對策」。在習近平式打虎不斷推進的過程中，老虎和蒼蠅們，也不斷的做出抵抗。近期，有大陸的「制度反腐專家」，提出「大老虎」會用四種形式反撲，引發議論。
在周永康被立案審查的三天後，大陸各大門戶網站在顯著位置以《反腐要提防「大老虎」們聯手反撲》為題，推出中山大學黨史黨建研究所所長郭文亮的文章，指出「大老虎」們為保護既得利益，一定會頑抗甚至聯手反撲。
被大陸媒體稱為「制度反腐專家」的郭文亮預計，「大老虎」的反撲，會以四種形式出現：第一、尋找更高的「後臺」保護自己﹔第二、藉口「影響黨的形象」「影響安定團結」，向查處活動施加壓力﹔第三、用對手或更高層官員的腐敗線索做要挾﹔第四、聯合黨內相關利益者，以莫須有的罪名打擊反腐的人，壓制反腐。
時事評論員夏小強：「這四種形式實質上一直在進行。第一種他說，老虎尋找更高的後臺保護自己。那確實是這樣的，因為在習近平陣營查處江澤民集團的過程中，這種腐敗官員一直在不停的要抬出來江澤民，來阻撓這種反腐。」
夏小強認為，第二種形式，主要體現在江系勢力掌控的國內外媒體，不斷髮出所謂的反腐可能「影響黨」「影響安定團結」的說法。而第三種形式，則是可以從江系向海外媒體釋放習近平，溫家寶等人所謂的「家族貪腐」的行動中得到印證。
夏小強：「第四就是聯合黨內相關利益，打擊反腐。這個指的是甚麼呢？江澤民陣營一直向外界釋放出，除了江澤民集團之外的一些家族的所謂貪腐資訊，包括釋放出李鵬，釋放出一些太子黨家族的一些資訊，來造成聯手他們，來對抗習近平反腐的這種行動。」
既然一路打虎到周永康，這些反撲形式都一直在進行，那麼剛把周永康關進籠子，媒體上為甚麼又出現「反撲論」？尤其是《人民日報》官方微信公號在8月4號，發佈了郭文亮這篇文章的主要觀點，被外界視為釋放出某種信號。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡分析，郭文亮說的這些「反撲」老虎，實際只是中小型老虎，避開了「大老虎」。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡：「這些現象都存在。問題就是看你現在反腐是怎麼反法？往哪個方向反？現在他的文章裡提到是向下發展，沒有向中央政治局常委方向發展。那就是說，把現在反腐的方嚮往下降、往下伸。這樣的話，這批人跟老百姓具體接觸的更多、民憤更大、更多。所以他用這個辦法呢，來獲取民心。」
時事評論員夏小強指出，目前大陸媒體的某些論調，其實正是江系「反撲」的一種手段。
夏小強：「另外他們進行反撲，博弈的一個具體手段，是運用現有的、江澤民集團在臺面上的，掌控權力的張德江和劉雲山。特別是劉雲山掌控了中共的宣傳部門的權力來對抗習近平。」
就在大陸媒體就「老虎反撲論」熱議的時候，8月23日，中紀委發佈周案後首個「打虎」消息，兩名山西省委常委陳川平、聶春玉在一天之內被調查。似乎「打虎」並沒有理會媒體的各種論調。
不過，伍凡指出，目前的「反腐」只是治標不治本，中間夾雜著派系鬥爭。
伍凡：「他沒有一個制度化的全部來改革，走上一個反腐。這種僅僅是『治標』，不能解決問題。那麼這樣做的話為了救共產黨麼。這共產黨通過這個辦法能救嗎？我覺的不管怎麼樣，打虎也好、不打虎也好，問題的根源是出在共產黨。誰養的這些老虎？是共產黨養的這些老虎。」
伍凡認為，中共在過去65年裡殺害了大量的中國人，目前還在迫害中國民眾，這都不是「反腐」能夠解決的，也是不能遺忘的重點。
採訪/易如 編輯/尚燕 後製/舒燦
CCP Warns of Counterattacks By Tigers
The so-called “countermeasures against policies" is a popular
slogan within Communist officialdom.
Indeed, as Xi Jinping proceeds with the anti-graft,
( faithful to government)
tigers and flies are constantly fighting back.
Recently, the anti-graft expert proposed four counterattacks
from the tigers.
Three days after the announcement of Zhou Yongkang
facing investigation,
mainland media web portals have published Guo Wenliang’s
article, warning of tigers teaming up to counterattack.
Guo Wenliang is a professor in Department of Social Science
Education of Sun Yat-sen University.
He stated, tigers will be recalcitrant or uncooperative,
thus teaming up to fight back for their own vested interests.
Mainland media refer Guo Wenliang as the expert
in the anti-graft system.
He anticipated the four counterattacks from the big tigers.
First, find a stronger supporter for protection;
Second, exert pressure to the investigators with the excuse
to maintain “party image" and “stability and unity";
Third, blackmail with corruption and clues of the opponents
or even the more senior officials;
Fourth, attack and suppress the corruption with trumped-up
charges by working with relevant stakeholders in the party.
Commentator Xia Xiaoqiang: “These four countermeasures
have been utilised at all times.
The first measure of seeking stronger background for
protection has been taking place.
Jiang Zemin and his cronies, have often counterattacked
Xi Jinping’s camp,
attempting to thwart the anti-corruption campaign."
Xia Xiaoqiang believes the second countermeasure utilised
by the Jiang faction,
is in controlling media both at home and abroad, publicising
the damage caused by the anti-corruption movement
to the party and stability and unity.
The third countermeasure, has been to expose “family corruption"
within the families of Xi Jinping and Wen Jiabao
to overseas media.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “The fourth is to unite relevant interest groups
within the party to fight against the anti-graft campaign.
For instance, Jiang faction has been releasing corrupt
information of people outside of Jiang’s faction, such as
Li Peng and other princeling’ families.
That will push them to work together to fight against
Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign."
Given that hitting the tigers has reached Zhou Yongkang,
and these counterattacks have been conducted,
why are the media publicising these counterattacks?
It is analysed that in particular, People’s Daily’s Aug. 4 report
about Guo Wenliang’s warning of the tigers’ counterattacks,
has unleashed certain signals.
China Affairs editor-in-chief Chris Wu analysed, Guo has
avoided the major tiger, by mentioning those counterattacks
to the tigers of small and medium levels.
Chris Wu: “These are commonly seen phenomena.
The problem is where the anti-graft is going.
He mentioned the anti-graft is going towards the lower levels,
not the politburo higher levels.
That means the anti-graft is going down towards the society
where people are directly related to and have bigger grievance.
This is how Xi is trying to get the support of the people."
Xia Xiaoqiang points out some of the arguments the mainland
media publicised are in fact Jiang’s comeback.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “The counterattack is also manipulating the
existing power players such as Zhang Dejiang and Liu Yunshan.
Especially Liu Yunshan who is now in control of the propaganda
department which is used to fight against Xi Jinping."
Despite the various media arguments, two tigers from Shanxi
Province were hit on the same day.
On Aug. 23, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection,
sacked two Shanxi Provincial Committee members,
Chen Chuanping and Nie Chunyu.
Chris Wu notes that the anti-corruption, mingled with factional
struggle, is only a temporary solution.
Chris Wu: “Without a systematic reform, this anti-corruption
will not solve the problem.
It won’t save the CCP. I believe CCP is the root of the problem.
Who created these tigers? It is the CCP."
Chris Wu indicates that the CCP has killed massive amounts
of Chinese people in the past 65 years,
and it is continually murdering the people of China.
None of these can be resolved by the so-called anti-corruption.
Neither can they be forgotten.
Interview/YiRu Edit/ShangYan Post-Production/ShuCan
