【新唐人2014年06月11日訊】6月的第一週，上海商鋪的成交量和成交金額，同比下降接近百分之八十。專家指出，中國房地產市場中，商鋪泡沫比住宅更加嚴重，一旦泡沫破裂，會殃及這個社會。
「上海搜房數據監控中心」數據顯示，剛過去的6月第一週，上海商鋪共計成交116套；成交面積共8440平米，環比下跌77.59%，創下3月以來商鋪周成交量最低；而總成交額1億7800萬，環比下跌了76.43%。
美國《華爾街日報》分析指出，中國商鋪的泡沫比住房泡沫更加嚴重。
美國商業地產服務公司「CBRE」說，去年全球新建購物中心面積排名前10名的城市，有九座在中國，而中國的在建購物中心面積，超過全球在建購物中心面積的一半。尤其四川成都處於中國購物中心爆炸式增長的中心。
去年開發商在成都投入使用的購物中心面積，遠遠超過去年全球任何城市開設的購物中心。龐大的「成都國際金融中心(IFS)」，只是成都市1,500萬居民可選的購物場所之一。IFS購物中心今年開業，設有300家店舖、五星級酒店、豪華公寓、溜冰場、雕塑園景和畫廊。IFS中心「採蝶坊餐廳」服務員告訴《新唐人》，IFS的入住率非常低。
大陸經濟評論家牛刀：「他們那種規劃完全是脫離實際的，到處是空的地方，有的還是國家級的做規劃的，我們看到的情況是非常的惡劣，中國是一個專制主義國家，沒人檔得住政府想幹甚麼。」
據報導，中國的地方政府在批給開發商住房項目時，把修建大型購物中心和酒店作為項目批准條件。
報導說，英國地產諮詢公司「萊坊」表示，目前在中國，開發商正建造的多用途建築物，相當於1000個美國最大購物中心的規模，可惜大規模的擴建來得不是時候，因為零售商都在擱置店舖擴張計劃。
調查顯示，由於網上購物的發展，全球購物中心都受到了很大程度的衝擊。
而中國國內商家的抗議時有發生。今年2月，成都「伊廈國際商貿城」的1000多商戶，沿街遊行示威，聲討商貿城在2010年招商時，用虛假信息欺騙商家到這個商貿城投資，結果血本無歸，有的甚至妻離子散。不過他們的抗議，最終遭到當局鎮壓，數人被捕。
牛刀：「我去年跑了5、6個省，跑了好多地方，全部在那兒鬧事，舉牌子在遊行，說原來說得好好的，有多少投資回報，實際上是沒有的，小股東的錢都白花了，但是政府的警察把老百姓驅走，官商勾結很厲害。」
《華爾街日報》引述「萊坊」中國區董事、綜合項目顧問及代理服務部主管孫俊安的話說，如果購物中心在開業後不能全部被商戶承租，或者獲得良好運營的話，購物中心擁有人，每個月很容易虧損數千萬人民幣。而中國政府還沒有意識到，一旦所有項目都完工，空置問題將變得非常嚴峻。
美國南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「崩盤的話，涉及到資金都非常龐大，會帶動借錢給他們的銀行，從地下銀行、影子銀行籌錢來的，那有涉及到更多的人群，最後不管是國家買單也好，或者倒閉也好，很多人投入的錢也就打水漂了，這些都會造成社會局勢的動盪。」
據國內媒體報導，中國各地購物中心空置現象非常嚴重。今年南京購物中心已經進入了「扎堆交付年」，但一些已經營業的購物中心，或其他類商業體經營狀況並不樂觀，南京中央路一家大型購物中心，即使在週末時間，除了餐飲店有人氣外，其他樓層人氣稀少。
現在中國10大房地產開發商，都有一些商業地產項目，大連「萬達集團」是中國最大的商業地產開發商。美國「摩根大通」首席中國經濟學家朱海斌表示，和中國住宅地產相比，短期內更擔心中國的商業地產，從歷史上來看，商業地產泡沫出現破裂的頻率更高，這會帶來較高的經濟成本，美國儲蓄和信貸危機就是一個例子。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/葛雷
Shanghai Commercial / Residential Estates Collapsing
Trading volume and sales of Shanghai Commercial estates
for the first week of June dropped nearly 80% compared with
the same period in 2013.
Experts point out that China’s commercial real estate bubble
has become more serious.
Once the bubble bursts,
it will bring disaster to the entire society.
Data from Shanghai sofun.com shows that a total of 116
commercial real estate properties with 8440 square meters
were sold during the first week of June,
This is down 77.59% compared with same period last year,
the lowest since March 2014.
The total sales volume was 178 million yuan, down 76.43% MoM.
U.S. Wall Street Journal analyzed that the commercial property
bubble is more serious than the housing bubble.
U.S. commercial real estate company CBRE said that
nine out of 2013’s top 10 new shopping centers were in China.
China’s shopping center construction area was more than
half of the world’s construction area.
In particular, shopping centers in Chengdu, Sichuan
grew at an explosive rate.
The shopping areas built in 2013 in Chengdu were
larger than anywhere in the world,
Such a gigantic project is the Chengdu International Financial
Centre (IFS) among other shopping areas for 15 million
residents in Chengdu.
IFS opened this year with 300 stores, five-star hotels,
luxury apartments, an ice rink, and landscaped sculpture gallery.
IFS staff told NTD that the occupancy rate is very low.
China’s economic commentators Niu Dao:
“Their planning is completely unreal.There are empty houses
everywhere. Some projects were done on a national scale.
I think the situation is very bad. China is an totalitarian country.
No one can stop what the government does."
Accordingly, construction of shopping malls and hotels
is a decision for local governments to approve projects.
U.K. real estate consulting company Knight Frank
stated that developers are building multi-purpose properties
in China,
These are equivalent in size to a 1,000 U.S.’ largest shopping malls.
But unfortunately the timing is not good,
as retailers are putting expansion plans on hold.
A survey indicates that development of online shopping
largely impacts shopping centers worldwide.
Businesses protests occur in China from time to time.
In February this year, more than 1,000 merchants at
Chengdu’s Yixia International Trade City took to the street.
They were protesting against the Trade City getting their investment
in 2010 with falsified information that caused their losses.
The protests were repressed and several people were arrested.
Niu Dao: “I travelled five to six provinces in 2013.
Protests are everywhere.
People were told they would get a certain return on investments,
but in fact they did not get any.
Small shareholders’ money was all wasted.
The police suppresses the protest.
Government and business collusion is very serious."
China Area Member of the Board and Head of Agency Services
Sun Junan
if a shopping center is not fully leased after opening,
or not being run well,shopping center owners could easily lose
ten million yuan each month.
The Chinese government has not realized that once all the
projects are completed, the vacancy problem will become
very serious.
Professor Xie Tian at University of South Carolina
Aiken School of Business:"If it collapses, it will involve very
large amounts of money.
It will impact banks, underground banks, shadow banks,
those who lend the money and others.
In the end, either government bailout or bankruptcy,
money is gone and these will cause social unrest."
According to Chinese media, the vacancy issue of China’s
shopping centers is very serious.
This year many shopping centers in Nanjing
will be delivered together.
But some shopping centers or other types of commercial properties
are not doing well.
At one large shopping center at Central Rd in Nanjing,
Only the dining area is popular even during weekends.
China’s top 10 major real estate developers all have some
commercial real estate projects.
Dalian Wanda Group is China’s largest commercial real
estate developer.
U.S. JP Morgan’s chief China economist Zhu Haibin expressed:
compared with residential real estate, short-term concern is
mounting more around commercial real estate.
From the historical point of view, commercial real estate
bubbles bursts occurs at a higher frequency,and brings
higher economic costs.
The savings and lending crisis in the U.S. is one such example.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/GeLei
