【新唐人2014年04月16日訊】歷經去年狂漲的中國樓市，今年第一個季度，卻出現房價同比與環比漲幅連續縮小。儘管開發商推出各種手段促銷，房市增長仍顯疲態。如果今年房價繼續下跌，中國的樓市會崩盤嗎？國內房價漲跌對富有階層有何影響？誰是房價下跌的最大受害者？讓專家告訴你。
美國《華爾街日報》報導，三月的「中國發展高層論壇2014」年會上，有業內專家學者認為，中國一、二線城市的房價與三、四線城市要區分看待，房價回落不是泡沫破裂，中國樓市不會崩盤。
大陸金融分析師任中道則表示，近期大陸房市五花八門的降價促銷，已經說明瞭房地產前景不妙。而一、二線城市的房價和三、四線區分看待，是基於熱點城市需求的不同而言。
大陸金融分析師任中道：「如果房地產中共認為讓它崩的話，那它就會崩﹔如果說不讓它崩，它會用舉國之力去加速的印鈔票，或者用財政、銀行去填這個窟窿，這是中共一貫作風。」
大陸民間經濟學家鄭先生：「情況非常嚴峻，房地產的風險在中國一開始就存在很多，它的崩盤是一個複雜的系統概念。」
據大陸《財經網》報導，受信貸收緊和自住型商品住房政策的影響，4月的第一個星期，3月31號到4月6號，北京住宅市場，包括新建商品住宅和二手住宅網簽總量為2587套，同比下調22% 。
3月份，北京二手房成交均價為每平方米3萬1400元，環比2月份再次下調0.6%。而成交套數為8943套，創造2009年以來同期的最低值。
而有「北京後花園」之稱的河北省秦皇島樓市，有樓盤降價40%求甩貨，大量庫存積壓下，可能出現鬼城的隱憂。而在浙江杭州一處樓盤，單套房價格就下跌近百萬。
面對繼續下跌的房價，誰是這個泡沫破滅的最大受害者？
大陸《財新網》英文版援引「西南財經大學」的《中國家庭金融調查》的報告結果指稱，房價下跌對中產階級家庭打擊很大。
不過，中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利表示，中國的中產階級目前來講佔的比例不是很大。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「最大的是窮人，中國窮人大概是5億左右，這個水平是怎麼劃分的，就是人均以每天1美元這個水平，再加上稍微勉強能維持生計的那部分人，大概有5億人，中產階級大概只有3億人左右。」
大陸民間經濟學家鄭先生也認為，所謂的中產階級是很有限的，廣大的中產階級大部分是社會底層，而且他們買房是自己住。
任中道表示，因房地產受打擊的，或許是那些能真正拿出100萬以上現金買房的所謂中產階層，但他們仍是中國經濟體制下的一個群體。
任中道：「受害者那肯定是老百姓，有的房子一夜之間損失了50萬市值，都有這樣的新聞出現。」
那麼，國內房價漲跌對富有階層有何影響？
任中道：「對這些人的影響是沒那麼大是因為很多的富人都移民了、資產也轉移了，並且所有的中共這些權貴階層，他們對信息的來源、政策的把握比一般的民眾更加敏感快速。」
今年1月，胡潤研究院公布的調查顯示，中國富豪移民比例升高到64%，其中億萬富豪有1/3移民到國外。
《華爾街日報》1月曾援引中國與全球化智庫(CCG)調查的數據，過去23年內中國海外移民存量增長了128%，截至2011年，已有2萬8000億元的資產已經轉移到海外，約佔當年中國國內生產總值GDP的3%。中國人已成為美國第二大海外房地產買家。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/蕭宇
Who Are the Biggest Losers of China’s Real Estate Bubble Blow-out?
China’s housing prices soared last year.
In Q1, 2014, the increase slowed down year-on-year and
period-over-period basis.
Although developers introduced various means of promotion,
the housing market growth continues to show down.
If prices continue to fall this year, will China’s property
market collapse?
What will be the impact on the wealthy?
Who will be the prime victims of falling house prices?
U.S. Wall Street Journal reported,during March’s 2014 that,
China Development Forum,experts indicate that China’s 3rd
and 4th level cities are different from the 1st and 2nd level cities.
Housing price falling does not mean a bubble burst.
China’s real estate market will not crash.
China’s Financial Analyst Ren Zhongdao expressed that
recent promotions of the housing market indicate unpleasant
prospects for the real estate market.
The difference between levels of cities is actually about the
difference in demand for housing.
Ren Zhongdao: “If the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
allows the real estate market to collapse, it will collapse;
If the CCP does not want real estate to crash,
it will speed up printing money using the resources
of the whole nation to fill up the gap.
This is the CCP style."
Economists Mr. Zheng: “The situation is very serious.
There are many risks in China’s real estate at the beginning.
Its crash is a complex system collapse."
According to China’s caijin.com,impacted by credit tightening
and owner-occupied commercial housing policy,
in the first week of April, March 31 to April 6, there were 2,587
transactions in the Beijing residential market,
including new and second hand houses, down 22% year on year.
In March, Beijing second-hand housing price was 31,400 yuan
per square meter, down 0.6 percent from February.
There were 8943 transactions the lowest since the same period
in 2009.
Qinghuangdao is referred to as the “Back Garden of Beijing."
Some houses there dropped 40%.With a large backlog of
inventory It might become a ghost town.
In Hangzhou, the price of a single unit fell nearly a million yuan.
With prices continuing to fall, who are the biggest losers of
this bubble blow-out?
Caijing.com English site cited Chinese Household Financial
Investigation by Southwest University of Finance,
“Falling house prices heavily hit the middle-class."
However, China’s financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli
said the proportion of China’s middle class is not high.
Gong Shengli: “The biggest victims are the poor, about
500 million people who earn $1 dollar per day per capita
and those who barely make ends meet.
The middle class is about 300 million people. “
Mr. Zheng also thinks that the so-called middle class is limited.
The vast majority of the middle class is at the bottom of society,
and they buy houses for their own living.
Ren Zhongdao: Middle-class who can spend one million yuan
cash to buy houses are hit by the house market.
They are a separate group of China’s economic system.
Ren Zhongdao: “For sure the victims are the people.
Some houses lost 50,000 yuan market value in one night.
There is news like that."
What will be the impact of falling house price on the rich?
Ren Zhongdao: “The impact on these people is not too much.
Many of the wealthy have emigrated and transferred their assets.
This CCP high-level group has sources of information
and react much faster than the general pubic."
In January 2014, Hurun Research Institute published a survey
indicating that the emigration ratio of rich Chinese people rises
to 64%,
with 1/3 billionaires emigrating out of China.
In January Wall Street Journal cited data from the
Center for China And Globalization (CCG),
in the past 23 years China’s emigration increased 128%.
As of 2011, more than 2,800 billion yuan worth of assets
have been transferred overseas, about 3% of China’s GDP of 2011.
Chinese have become the second largest foreign real estate
buyers in the U.S.
Interview & Edit/Yi Ru Post-Production/Xiao Yu
