【新唐人2014年04月05日訊】中共總書記習近平「十八」大後，提出了「蒼蠅、老虎一起打」的反腐口號，也真打掉了省部級貪官19人，其中蔣潔敏、李崇禧和公安部副部長李東生都是正部級。不過，有人算了一筆經濟賬，認為中共反腐會損失幾千億人民幣。人們想知道的是，中共大代價反腐真能起到作用嗎？請看以下報導。
根據世界最大銀行之一的美國「美林銀行」本週公布的一份報告顯示，僅今年一年，中共政府會為它的反貪腐運動，付出1000多億美元的經濟代價。
「美林銀行」的報告指出，習近平提倡反對公款大吃大喝、反對公費送禮以來，產生了微觀效應，例如餐飲業和奢侈品銷售的利潤大減。但「美林銀行」同時認為，中共禁止公款消費和減少行政支出的命令，使得中國國內消費急劇下降。
粗略估計，因經濟活動減少帶來的損失，可能就會有1350億美元，相當於人民幣8000多億。
「美林銀行」還說，從去年初開始，中國國有銀行的存款數量飆升近30%，這正是經濟活動減少的體現。
旅美政論家伍凡：「用政治壓力解決貪污腐敗，而不是用法律、用法制或者是用輿論監督、法律監督這個方法。如果從反腐敗的現象來看，這種反腐敗能持久嗎？」
2012年底，美國《彭博社》雜誌追蹤了中共八大元老——鄧小平、陳雲、王震、薄一波等人的後代，103名家庭成員的經濟狀況。《彭博社》指出，這些紅色貴族通過控制國有企業，創辦私人企業積斂了巨額財富。僅王震之子王軍、鄧小平的女婿賀平、以及陳雲之子陳元三人，所控制的國有企業的資產規模，就有1萬6000億美元。
至今，這些太子黨無一人被查。
英國《路透社》最近引用與中共最高層有聯繫的三名消息人士的話說，當局沒收了上任中共中央政法委書記周永康家族，至少900億元人民幣的財產，這包括在中外銀行帳戶的370億元存款，和總額高達510億元人民幣的中外債券，以及其他數百處房產、無數的古董、字畫等。
但中共處理「大老虎」周永康的情況，目前陷入了困境。
英國《金融時報》最近從中共體制內得到消息說，中共前任領導人江澤民和胡錦濤已分別表示，為避免反腐涉及過多黨內高層的家族利益，此次反腐打擊的範圍不能過大。他們警告習近平，「反腐」持續太久會削弱共產黨在民眾中的支持度，威脅政權的穩定。
時事評論員藍述：「從體制這個層面來講，中共的腐敗它的根源不是一個經濟問題，它的根源是一個政治腐敗，是高度集權之後，不受制衡的權力所造成的政治腐敗。」
時事評論員藍述認為，中共的政治腐敗是核心，經濟腐敗只是表象。而中共現在處理經濟腐敗，還是想維護一黨獨裁的政治制度，也就是想通過反對表面腐敗，維持核心的腐敗，效果可想而知。
其實，中共的腐敗也滲入到各個階層。
調查顯示，2011年中國的「灰色收入」為6萬2000億元，約佔GDP總量的12%。而這麼巨大的灰色收入，大都落入各級官員的腰包，成為貪官權貴的盤中飧。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡指出，如果你在國內限制這些權貴集團，他們就會把錢花到外國去，把財產轉移到國外去。
今年，美國獨立新聞組織「國際調查記者聯盟（International Consortium of Investigative Journa-lists，ICIJ）」發表了一份調查報告，其中披露，中共高層精英及他們的近親們，多年來在加勒比海「避稅天堂」擁有秘密離岸公司。據估計，自2000年以來，通過離岸公司管道流出中國的金額，最高達 4萬億美元。
身在俄羅斯的前美國情報人員斯諾登也曾公布，中共官員在國外存款達4萬8000億美元。有人算了一筆帳，中共貪官們的海外資產，可以讓全體中國人民免費醫保625年！
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/孫寧
The Cost of Anti-Corruption: Hundreds of Billions RMB
Since Xi Jinping vowed to tackle corrupt officials both big and small, tigers and flies, as many as 19 provincial senior officials as well as officials at the ministerial level such as Jiang Jiemin, Li Chongxi, and Li Dongsheng were sacked. However, it comes with a cost.
An economic analysis suggested that anti-corruption will cost China hundreds of billions of RMB. Will the anti-corruption really work? Please follow our report.
A report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch this week showed the Communist regime’s anti-graft campaign could cost more than $100 billion this year alone.
According to BBC ‘s analysis, Merrill Lynch ‘s report suggested many of the micro effects of Xi Jingping’s anti-corruption drive have already been well documented of course; a slowdown in the restaurant trade for example, and a big dip in sales of luxury goods.
The prohibition on government consumption and the chill on administrative spending are estimated to cause sharp reduction in domestic consumption.
A rough calculation by the BBC report, this reduction could add up to as much as US $135 billion, which is the equivalent of 800 billion RMB.
Merrill Lynch report also said that since early last year, government bank deposits have been soaring, up almost 30% year on year, a manifestation of reduced economic activity .
Wu Fan, political commentator: “The regime ‘s anti-corruption was through political pressure, rather than by supervision of the legal system or public opinion. Can the phenomenon of anti-corruption really last?"
By end of 2012, Bloomberg News mapped the families of Communist China ‘s “Eight Immortals" and tracked the wealth of 103 of their descendants. The heirs ran or held top positions in state-owned companies to amass wealth and influence. Three children alone — General Wang ‘s son, Wang Jun; Deng ‘s son-in-law, He Ping; and Chen Yuan, the son of Mao ‘s economic tsar — headed or still run state-owned companies with combined assets of about $1.6 trillion in 2011.
So far, none of these princelings have been put under investigation.
Reuters recently reported according to three sources that the Communist regime has seized assets worth at least 90 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) from Zhou Yongkang and his family.The party’s anti-corruption watchdog had frozen bank accounts with deposits totaling 37 billion yuan and seized domestic and
overseas bonds and stocks with a combined value of 51 billion yuan.
Investigators had also confiscated hundreds of apartments, villas, as well as numerous antiques and contemporary paintings.
But the regime seems to get stuck with the “big tiger" Zhou Yongkang ‘s case.
Financial Times recently reported that insiders ‘ pointed out that former leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao have both sent messages to Xi Jinping, that in order “not to take on too many of the powerful families or patronage networks at the top of the party hierarchy,"
“the footprint of this anti-corruption campaign cannot get too big."
Xi Jinping was warned “that a campaign that lasted too long and
was too harsh could erode support among the Communist party ‘s
rank and file and threaten the stability of its rule.”
Lan Su, commentator: “From the perspective of the regime system, the Communist regime corruption is not about economy, but rather a political issue. This political issue has been caused by the highly centralized political corruption which lacks checks and balances of power. “
Commentator Lan Su analyzes that the political corruption of the Communist regime is the core of the root, and the economic corruption is just what it presents. The CCP ‘s tackling the economic corruption has been exactly
targeting what it reflects, so that the one-party authoritarian political system, i.e., the core political corruption, is maintained. The ineffectiveness is imaginable.
In fact, the political corruption has infiltrated to the entire Chinese society.
Research found, the undeclared “gray income" reached 6.2 trillion RMB (about $1 trillion) in 2011, or about 12% of GDP. Majority of the gray income can easily be channeled out into private pockets of the corrupt officials and political elites.
Commentator Wu Fan believes that those powerful and elite groups of the regime will find a way to spend their wealth, if restricted in China, such as transfer assets overseas.
This year, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, ICIJ, reported financial records that revealed close relatives of China’s top leaders have used secretive offshore companies in Caribbean tax havens that helped shroud the Communist elite’s wealth.
As much as US $4 trillion in untraced assets have left China through these offshore companies since 2000.
Living in Russia, former U.S. intelligence officer Snowden has revealed that the Communist officials had foreign deposits amounting to US $4.8 trillion. This amount was calculated could support the entire Chinese population’s free medical insurance for 625 years.
Interview/SongFeng Post-Production/SunNing
