【新唐人2014年02月22日訊】人民幣對美元即期匯率19號開盤，短短半個小時就急跌80點，一天跌了高達91點，這是人民幣近期貶值的一個縮影。在1月份「破6」的呼聲中，人民幣不僅沒有繼續升值，反而向下跌了490多個基點。人們不禁想知道，這是人民幣崩盤的跡象呢，還是中共故意去做的？請看以下報導。
2月19號上午開盤不久，人民幣對美元即期匯率就急跌到6.0840，下跌近80個基點。而急跌行情並沒有就此中止，目前已到6.0898。
人民幣匯率自1月中旬創出6.0406歷史高位後，至今連續反向下跌了0.5%，創出了自去年12月9號以來的最低點。而去年則上漲了2.9%。
人民幣匯率中間價也繼續下行，三個交易日內，人民幣對美元匯率中間價，纍計下跌100基點，香港離岸人民幣市場也是連續下跌，並預計未來一年的人民幣兌美元將下跌0.7%。
香港《星島日報》引述交易人士的話說，19號早盤交易中，曾有至少兩家中資大行出價購入美元，使美元價格急升，但不知他們背後的性質及目地。
北京《國情內參》雜誌首席研究員鞏勝利認為，人民幣最近匯率跌度很大，是因為受到了美國寬鬆貨幣政策的影響。
北京《國情內參》雜誌首席研究員鞏勝利：「 我覺得可能最嚴峻的應該是7、8、9三個月，那時美國的QE要全部抽回。這很麻煩、很麻煩。因為新興24個國家貨幣全部貶。」
鞏勝利指出，美國抽回貨幣，任何國家都沒有辦法抵擋，中共政府也是兩難，無法救市。想保持匯率就要投放大量的外匯，不投放就會出現錢荒，房地產市場就會缺錢。
鞏勝利認為，今年會是中共建政以來人民幣最嚴峻的一年，因為超過10萬億人民幣進入房市的信託債務就要到期，當前已經出現錢荒，房市的大麻煩就要來了。
20號有媒體報導說，浙江杭州樓市打響了降價第一槍，部分樓盤每平米降價數千元。而同一天，湖北襄陽某一樓盤因開發商資金鏈斷裂，無法按時繼續建設。
《央視》財經評論員「牛刀」在博客指出，人民幣大跌是泡沫破滅的信號，中國房價泡沫已經在爆裂。
「牛刀」分析認為，1月份大陸存款減少了9402億，這些存款很大一部分是賣出住宅取出人民幣後，轉移出境或換成美元了。而那些賺取人民幣升值的國外熱錢在美元升值、人民幣貶值逃走後，也不會再回來。中國金融風暴就可能因此又成一只多米諾骨牌。
不久前，香港《南華早報》的評論文章認為，越來越多跡象表明，人民幣正日益被高估，未來人民幣貶值趨勢不可逆轉。
美國南卡羅萊納大學經濟學教授謝田：「人民幣本身的問題跟中國經濟的整體的崩潰是相關聯的，實際上它也是中國銀行壞賬的問題、地方債務膨脹到不可收拾的問題，還有中國信貸業那些理財產品、地下錢莊、影子銀行大範圍破滅和違約，在外匯市場上的一個反應。」
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田認為，在以後的幾個月裡，會有越來越多的人民幣崩盤的跡象，中國經濟也會面臨更大的麻煩。
但中國民間智庫組織「北京大軍智庫經濟觀察研究中心」主任仲大軍認為，中國的經濟雖然下滑，還不至於崩潰，只是一個時間的波動而已。
中國經濟學家仲大軍：「對人民幣來說，人民幣目前的狀況也可能受到當前…一個是中國的貨幣影響，另外一個也受到當前中國國內經濟形勢的影響，國際間有人看低中國的經濟。」
實際上，衡量中國經濟榮枯的一項關鍵指標在2月份繼續下滑。「滙豐集團」最近公布的中國製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）初值為48.3，低於1月份的49.5，1、2月的PMI指數都低於50的榮枯線，並創下七個月來的最低水準。而中國就業分項指數，也降到四年中的最低點。
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/蕭宇
Breaking News: The Real Estate Bubble Has Burst – CCP Insider
The RMB against the U.S. Dollar fell on the 19th to a new low,
with a decline of 91 basic points, signaling the recent
devaluation of RMB.
Since January, the RMB has continued to rebase against the
US Dollar for as many as 490 basic points.
This phenomenon has set off alarm bells signalling the collapse
of the RMB or a manipulation by the Communist regime.
The following is our report.
The U.S. Dollar to RMB went up on Feb. 19 upon the opening
of the market to 6.0840, by nearly 80 basic points.
This trend has continued to 6.0898 as this report is issued.
Since the historical 6.0406 rate appeared in mid-January,the
U.S. Dollar to RMB has turned around and went up 0.5% and
hit the highest point since Dec. 9.
Last year, the rate went down by 2.9%.
The RMB to U.S. Dollar central disparity rate went down for
three consecutive days with a total of 100 basic points fall.
Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market also fell continuously and
anticipated a 0.7% decline in the RMB against the U.S. dollar
this year.
Hong Kong’s Sing Tao Daily reported that on the 19th in the
exchange market, at least two firms bid on U.S. Dollar and
pushed up the Dollar.
However, the reasons are unknown.
Beijing, Conditions Reference magazine chief researcher,
Gong Shengli believes that the RMB to U.S. Dollar exchange
rate has recently dropped because of the winding down on
monetary policy by the United States.
Gong Shengli, researcher of Beijing based magazine,
Guoqing Neican: “I think July, August and September will be
hardest hit with the complete cut of QE by the Fed.
There will be huge trouble as all 24 emerging countries’
currencies will experience devaluation."
Gong Shengli with the withdrawal of the U.S. Dollar, it’s a
tough situation for every other country, including China.
In order to avoid money shortage, it is necessary to keep the
exchange rate, injection of foreign exchange reserves,such as
in the real estate market.
Gong Shengli believes that this year the Communist regime
will face the most severe situation for RMB since the CCP
came to power.
More than 10 Trillion RMB of trust fund for the real estate
will mature this year.
The money shortage now signals big trouble ahead for
the real estate market.
Media reported that some real estate in Hangzhou, Zhejiang
has seen the first price cut on Feb. 20, at several thousand yuan
per square meter.
On the same day, a property developer in Xiangyang, Hubei
also halted the project due to the breakage of the financial chain.
CCTV financial commentator “Chopper" stated in the blog that
the devaluation of the yuan signals the bubble burst.
The Chinese real estate bubble has burst.
“Chopper" analyzed that the Chinese January deposits
decreased by 940.2 billion,
a majority of which was withdrawn from the selling of property
and transferred overseas or exchanged into the U.S. Dollar.
Foreign hot money will also flee the country upon realizing the
RMB devaluation, never to return.
The domino effect is likely to take place and result in the
Chinese financial storm.
Not long ago, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post
commented that,
signs of the yuan being overestimated have gradually surfaced
and the RMB depreciation is irreversible.
Professor Xie Tian, School of Business at the University of
South Carolina Aiken:
“The RMB’s problem is related to the entire economic collapse
of China,
including the toxic debts of the Chinese banks, the expansion
of local debts,
and the breach of contract of the trust funds, black market
banks and shadow banks, as shown by the activities in
the foreign exchange market."
Professor Xie Tian believes more signs of the RMB collapse
will show in the next few months, and the Chinese economy
will be faced with very severe troubles.
However, the Chinese think tank researcher Zhong Dajun
indicates that the downturn of the Chinese economy is just a
temporary fluctuation, not necessarily a crash.
Zhong Dajun, economist: “The RMB is affected by both the
currency and the current economic situation in China,
such as there are people in the international arena with low
expectations of the Chinese economy."
In fact, a key measure of China’s economy has continued to
decline in February.
The HSBC’s recent report on China’s manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) fell to a 7-month low of 48.3 from
January’s final reading of 49.5,
where a reading below 50 indicates a contraction in economy.
The PMI’s employment sub-index also fell to the lowest point
in four years.
Interview/Yi Ru Edit/Song Feng Post-Production/Xiao Yu
