【新唐人2014年02月05日訊】還有大約一個月，中共就要召開「兩會」了。近一、兩年來，中共政局動盪，民間反抗越來越公開化。在這樣的背景下，北京召開「兩會」之前，還會上演甚麼「戲碼」？讓我們一起聽聽大陸各界人士的看法。
大陸媒體日前報導，中共「兩會」將在下個月的3月3號和5號，在北京召開。
「兩會」是「全國人民代表大會」和「中國人民政治協商會議」的簡稱，每年3月固定召開。按照慣例是由「兩會代表」提案，交中共審定。
然而，「兩會」被稱為中共手中的「橡皮圖章」。民間因「兩會」近年來的提案過於荒唐、「雷人」，而把「兩會」改稱為「二會」。
今年的中共「兩會」，將在政治、經濟和環境等不安的背景下召開。
經濟方面，除了經濟全面下滑之外，人民幣外升內貶，將觸發超高通脹和滯脹﹔房地產泡沫破裂風險不斷加劇﹔堆積如山的地方債務，和理財產品、影子銀行等高風險投機，將觸發信貸泡沫﹔而產能過剩行業也將面臨大面積崩潰﹔銀行壞賬上升則將引發金融危機等。
另外，大陸投資環境也因大陸富人加快移民，和轉移資產，以及國有企業轉移資金作境外投資，而將逐漸蕭條。
政治方面，從去年到今年開年，中共在內部使用所謂反腐，強力整肅了地方、政法委和石油等不同系統的上百位官員。政治局委員級別的前國資委主任蔣潔敏、和副部級的「610辦公室」主任李東生等人，紛紛落馬。中共調查前中央政治局常委周永康的「二號專案組」，和調查前國家副主席曾慶紅的「一號專案組」也被曝光。
原山東大學教授孫文廣：「這次人大之前，有幾個事情它是繞不過去的，那麼其中一個就是周永康的問題了。先搞定的可能性大一些，現在全國議論已經很普遍了，不是說少數人講周永康的事。幾乎是家家戶戶的都在議論這個事，所以它不好迴避。」
大陸博客作家劉逸明：「我感覺周永康這個案子在兩會之前，應該會有一個給社會的初級交代。因為周永康的案子一直是中國國內和國際輿論關注的焦點。從傳媒來看，周永康的案子快到了公布的時候。官方媒體也在暗示，所以我覺得拿周永康來『祭旗』是一件很有意義的事情。」
與此同時，今年已有一批「新公民運動」的參與者，被北京當局「快審快判」。其中「公盟」組織創始人，中國法學博士許志永被判4年，參與街頭拉橫幅、要求官員財產公示的公民袁東，被判刑1年半﹔「新余三君子」劉萍等人，也將面臨所謂審判等。
劉逸明：「我覺得新公民運動當中被抓捕的一些維權人士的案子，應該也會在今年兩會之前有一個結果。把這些人解決，好讓兩會『順利』進行，在中共當局看來反腐敗是官方的專利，不容民間人士染指。」
大陸博客作家劉逸明分析，中共歷來在開兩會之前，經常通過鎮壓，來震攝民眾。
而大陸資深民主人士車宏年表示，當前的中國民眾，已不再對中共「兩會」抱持任何期望，他們希望依靠公民自己的覺醒，堅持反抗中共的極權體制。
大陸資深民主人士車宏年：「對於我們這些人，他們還是不鬆手的，它還是維護這個制度。包括這個安全委員會，就是鞏固它的政權，不是針對國家安全的，而是針對我們的，這已經很明顯的，就是加強中央極權體制，它的政權已經很虛弱了。」
今年新年伊始，中國已出現嚴重霧霾和禽流感蔓延，而去年中共「兩會」期間，也發生沙塵暴、和黃浦江大量死豬等異像。美國《大紀元》媒體預測，中國的政治風暴，也將因為中共前黨魁江澤民集團勢力不斷遭到打擊而逼近。
採訪編輯/唐音 後製/孫寧
Uproar Predicted Before “TWO SESSIONS"
The CCP will hold the “two sessions" next month.
In the last two years, the CCP’s political situation has been
unnstable with more and more open civil revolt.
Given such a chaotic background,what “drama" is in store
before “two sessions"?
Let us see mainland people’s opinion.
Mainland media recently reported that the CCP’s “two sessions"
will be held on March 3 and 5 in Beijing.
“Two sessions" is the abbreviation of the “National People’s
Congress" and “The Chinese People’s Political Consultative
Conference" held in March every year.
By convention, the proposal from the “two sessions" representatives
will be approved by the CCP.
However, the “two sessions" is known as the CCP’s
“rubber stamp".
Recently, the “two sessions" has changed to “two meeting (silly
meeting)" by people because the proposals are so absurd.
This year, the “two sessions" will be held against the backdrop of
the unstable political and economic landscape.
In economy, in addition to the overall economic downturn,
the renminbi’s external revaluation and internal depreciation
will trigger ultra-high inflation and stagflation
which fosters the perturbing risk of the real estate bubble
exploding;
A mountain of local debt, the high-risk speculation of financial
products and the shadow banking will trigger a credit bubble;
The overcapacity of industry will also face wide scale collapse;
The rising, toxic bank debts will lead to financial crisis.
In addition, the mainland investment environment will gradually
depress due to the rich emmigrating asset transfer and the
state enterprises’ overseas investment.
In politics, the CCP’s internal so-called, anti-corruption drive,
cleaned out hundreds of officials from local Politics and the Law
Committee and the oil system from last year.
Former member of the Politburo level, State Assets
Administration Committee director Jiang Jiemin, and Deputy
Ministerial level “610 Office" director Li Dongsheng have fallen.
The “II task force" investigation exposed former Politburo
Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang and the “I task force"
investigation exposed former Vice President Zeng Qinghong.
Former Shandong University professor Sun Wenguang: “there
are a few unavoidable things before this Congress: one is Zhou
Yongkang.
It’s possible to resolve this problem first because everybody
is talking about it in China and it’s not complicated. “
Continental blog writer Liu Yiming: “I feel Zhou Yongkang’s
case will be given an explanation before the two sessions because
it has been the national and international focus.
From the official media’s hint, it is time to release Zhou
Yongkang’s case because it is very interesting to have him
as ‘flag ceremony’."
At the same time, a number of “New Citizen
Movement" participants were quickly judged by the authorities.
The organization founder, Doctor of Laws Xu Zhiyong was
sentenced to four years on charge of holding a banner on the street;
Yuan Dong was sentenced to one and half year on charge;
campaigning for government officials to reveal their wealth.
“New Yu three gentlemen" Liu Ping will also face a so-called trial.
Liu Yiming: “I believe the case of some arrested activists from
‘New Citizen Movement’ will be wrapped up before the two
sessions.
The two sessions can be smoothly carried out after resolving
these issues.
Anti-corruption is the monopoly of the Chinese authorities, they
will and not allow private individuals to touch it."
Continental blog writer Liu Yiming observed that the CCP has
always shocked the people by repression before the two sessions.
The senior Democrat Che Hongnian said “the current Chinese
people have no faith in the ‘two sessions’ they rely on their own
citizens’ awakening against the CCP’s totalitarian regime."
The senior Democrat Che Hongnian: “They still try to maintain
the system, and not let us go.
The Security Committee is to consolidate its power, not for
national security, but against us.
It is obvious that they are trying to strengthen the central totalitarian
regime because the regime has been very weak. “
At the beginning of this year, China has severe haze and avian
flu.
There were sandstorms and a large number of dead pigs in
Huangpu River during the last “two sessions".
American “Epoch" Media predicted that China’s political storm
is about to blast former Communist Party
Leader, Jiang Zemin’s Group.
Interview & Edit/TangYin Post-Production/SunNing
