【新唐人2014年01月18日訊】自2008年以來，美國處在金融危機的中心，甚至一度面臨債務違約的風險。那麼，目前已經與21個國家和地區的貨幣當局，達成了貨幣互換協定的人民幣，能取代美元成為國際避險貨幣嗎？請看以下分析報導。
美國經濟學家埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)指出，自金融危機以來，美元作為避險貨幣的功能非但沒有下降，反而得到了加強。
埃斯瓦爾作為美國智庫「布魯金斯學會」的高級研究員，他解釋說，「全球都依賴美元的安全。國際投資者很有信心，認為美元的價值不會完全受到破壞。」
實際上，現在美元的價格與金融危機前相比，基本持平。
埃斯瓦爾指出，國際投資者認為，美國政府在任何情況下不會違約。他們對美元的信任來自美國完善的金融體系和政治體系。所以，他們在國際金融困境的時候，為了保護自己就會轉向美元，特別是美國債券。
埃斯瓦爾還說，美國政府也不願意使用通貨膨脹等手段，來降低債務的價值，因為那樣會傷害國際投資者，也會傷害美國國內的投資者。
埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德曾經擔任「國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）」中國部的主任，他在新書——《美元陷阱》中也指出，世界仍然深陷美元的控制之下。他認為，人民幣很難撼動美元作為國際避險貨幣的地位，主要的原因是中國的政治體系。
他表示：「考慮到目前中國的政治制度以及脆弱的法律框架，很難看到外國投資者前往中國的目地不是為了尋求更高的投資回報，而是為了避險。」
美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田指出，美國，作為自由民主國家的典範，無論是從政治體制也好、經濟實力也好，還是從軍事實力、社會文化實力和道德感召力上，都是其他任何國家目前不能相比的。
謝田美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「現在美國經濟完全擺脫了衰退，現在年經濟增長率已經達到2%到3%；歐洲國家還在經濟危機中掙扎，日本也試圖走出經濟危機，而中國現在剛剛進入經濟危機。在這種情況下，美元是無可置疑的作為避險貨幣首選。」
美國財政部16號公布的資料顯示，中共在去年11月，再度增加持有美國國債122億美元，這也是中共連續第3個月的增持，同時也使得中共持有美國國債的總額達到1萬3167億美元。
而中國人民銀行15號宣佈，大陸外匯儲備總額，去年來到3萬8200億美元，比前一年——2012年增長了5097億美元。外匯儲備餘額及年度增幅都創歷史新高。
謝田指出，中共自己儲備大量外匯說明，他們對人民幣沒有信心。目前，人民幣對美元匯率也在不斷攀升，中間價已經接近了6，也創2005年以來的新高。但是令人驚奇的是，大陸廣義貨幣存量（M2）從2005年底的30萬億元，激增到了2013年底的107萬9300億元。8年間貨幣增長3倍多，而美國只增長了55%。
1月16號的《紐約時報》對此指出，中國的資金浪潮已經導致資產價格飛漲，房價持續飆升，也加深了人們對泡沫的恐懼，也讓幾乎所有人都感到拮据。
大陸《經濟參考報》的評論也認為，人民幣「外升內貶」坑苦了中國老百姓。
大陸金融分析師任中道：「中共作為世界上最大的印鈔機，它不斷的在印鈔票，M2廣義貨幣的供應量，早就超過美國貨幣發行量的1.5倍了。」
謝田：「中共濫發貨幣、濫印鈔票，已經導致國內兩位數的通貨膨脹。實際上，中共政權在金融上面臨更大的危機，不管是房地產的泡沫、還是衰退的股市，還是成『天量』 的地方債務。」
謝田指出，習慣性用「印鈔票」解決問題的中共，最後經濟崩潰不可避免。而經濟的崩潰，自然又會導致中共政權的崩潰。
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/孫寧
Dollar vs RMB—Which one is safe for investors?
Since 2008, the United States has been at the center of the
financial storm, and even once faced the risk of debt default.
While China has reached currency swap agreement with 21
countries and regions, will the RMB replace the dollar and
become the dominant reserve currency?
Please see our analysis.
Economist Eswar Prasad pointed out that despite the upheaval
in the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar remains the dominant
reserve currency.
Eswar Prasad is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution,
the American think tank.
He explained the world relies on the security of the dollar,
which “the rest of the world has a great deal of trust in.”
In fact, the dollar holds its power even during the financial crisis.
Eswar Prasad said that international investors will always turn
to the dollar because of the
“deep financial markets, a powerful central bank and legal
framework the rest of the world has a great deal of trust in."
Eswar Prasad also indicated that the U.S. will not resort to
inflation to reduce debt, this could damage both international
investors as well as American investors.
Eswar Prasad, former head of the Financial Studies
Division and the China Division at the IMF, International
Monetary Fund.
In his new book, “The Dollar Trap", he believes that the
dollar will remain as the dominant reserve currency.
The RMB will not displace the dollar any time soon because
of China’s political system.
He indicated that given the current political system and the
legal framework in China, it’s unlikely China will be viewed
as a safe haven for investors, but rather a diversified reserve.
Xie Tian, Professor of Marketing at the University of South
Carolina Aiken indicates that:
as a world model in politics, economy, military, social and
culture, and the moral appeal, the United States has the
strength that no other democratic country could compare.
Xie Tian, professor of Marketing at University of South
Carolina Aiken: “The United States is now completely out of
recession with annual economic growth of 2% to 3%.
European countries are still struggling, so is Japan.
While China is just entering the economic crisis.
In this case, the dollar has undoubtedly become the safe haven
as the reserve currency."
According to the Treasury International Capital report,
China, the largest foreign holder of the bills, boosted its
holdings by $12.2 billion USD to $1.32 trillion USD,
– a record high.
China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $ 3.82 trillion USD
at the end of 2013, which is $ 509.7 billion more than
a year earlier, the People’s Bank of China said on Wednesday.
Both foreign exchange reserves and the annual growth rate
have reached a record high.
Xie Tian points out that China’s large foreign exchange reserve
reflects the Communist regime’s lack of confidence.
The exchange rate between dollars and RMB is close to 6,
a new high since 2005.
The balance of M2, China’s broadest measure of money supply,
recorded 107.93 trillion yuan ($17.78 trillion), in December 2013,
from 30 trillion yuan ($4.942 trillion) at the end of 2005.
That is a 218% growth in eight years,
while the United States only experienced a growth of 55%.
The New York Times indicated in its January 16 report that
because of the amount of money sloshing around China’s
economy,housing prices have soared, feeding fears of a bubble,
while leaving many ordinary Chinese people feeling poor
and left out.
An economic column in China also reported that:
Chinese people have become the ultimate scapegoat of the
appreciation of the RMB overseas, but depreciation domestically.
Ren Zhongdao, financial analyst: “The Communist regime has
become the world’s largest cash printing machine.
According to the Chinese broad measure,
the RMB supply has exceeded 1.5 times that of the dollar."
Xie Tian: “There has been a double-digit inflation in China
because of the abusive printing of the RMB by the Communist
regime.
In fact, the regime is facing an even greater financial crisis,
whether it is the real estate bubble, the declining stock market,
or the immeasurable local debts."
Xie Tian points out that the final economic collapse is inevitable
in China, on account of the habitual cash printing of the regime.
He believes that the economic collapse would naturally lead to
the collapse of the communist regime.
Interview/YiRu Edit/SongFeng Post-Production/SunNing
