【新唐人2014年01月17日訊】中共國務院新聞辦公室日前發佈2013年金融統計數據，外匯儲備餘額近4萬億美元。在經濟學家眼中，外匯儲備是把雙刃劍，並非越多越好。下面讓我們來聽聽專家的看法。
中共國務院新聞辦公室，就2013年金融統計數據，15號舉行發佈會。
中國人民銀行調查統計司司長盛松成：「年末，國家外匯儲備餘額3.82萬億美元，比上年末增加5097億美元。」
中國的外匯儲備主要由四個部分組成：一是巨額貿易順差﹔二是外國直接投資淨流入的大幅增加；三是外國貸款的持續增多；四是對人民幣升值預期導致的「熱錢」流入。
當外匯儲備額達到3萬7千億美元時，中國國家外匯管理局局長易綱說，外匯儲備超過一定量以後，邊際成本已大於邊際收益，等於你再增加就不合算了。
北京師範大學MBA導師、經濟專欄作家段紹譯：「這是一個非常愚蠢、錯誤的決定。因為國際貿易的優點，是每一個國家成為市場，發揮各自的優勢，收支平衡。如果你這個錢不去買東西，等於是一包廢紙，把這個財富白給人了。」
有較大的外匯儲備規模，可以保證市場的安定。然而，過多的外匯儲備也會加大人民幣匯率升值的壓力，如果為了減輕人民幣升值壓力，而增加貨幣供給或降低利率，本來就已經極為寬鬆的貨幣市場，將因此變得過度寬鬆，從而刺激國內資產市場泡沫膨脹。有很多負面影響。
北京大學教授、中國經濟學家厲以寧也曾公開表示，外匯儲備不是越多越好，主要是得用掉！
北京師範大學MBA導師，經濟專欄作家段紹譯介紹，目前中國的外匯儲備，大多存在美國的銀行裡，買了美國的國債，而中國大量民營小企業卻有無處貸款的問題。公開信息顯示，中國所買的美國國債，到去年底已超過1萬3千億美元。
對比西方國家，中國外匯儲備居高不下的原因是甚麼？北京《國情內參》期刊首席研究員鞏勝利表示，西方的貨幣是由一個獨立的貨幣管理委員會來管理。他說，像美國和歐盟，都沒有政黨控制貨幣的機制，因為他們沒有權力控制貨幣資源。
北京《國情內參》期刊首席研究員鞏勝利：「而中國不同，中國的人民幣是1948年的10月1日開始運行的，到現在已經超過65年了，它一直是黨控制的。中央銀行也就是人民銀行，其實它只是外面的一個幌子，只有策略的建議權，它沒有決策權。」
北京當局多年來努力迫使西方國家承認中國是完全市場經濟，但美國和歐洲都拒絕承認。鞏勝利點出了操控中國外匯儲備的關鍵人物。
鞏勝利：「黨的操縱，肯定對它有利他才放，不有利就收。黨控制的這些人民銀行報到政治局，政治局是7個委員，以前是9個委員。他來決定執行上或者下，執行或者不執行這麼一個策略。」
15號，深圳大學教授、大陸經濟學家國世平教授在微博上寫道：「我國之所以出現這種情況，是因為制度性障礙，原來我國缺少外匯，企業出口創匯，都必須交給國家，企業拿人民幣。我國目前外匯多了，應該改變這一狀況了，讓企業自己留用外匯，藏匯於民。」
對於解決巨額的外匯儲備，國內外專家學者提出各種建議。段紹譯認為，關鍵是當局不要干涉經濟。
段紹譯：「我們政府要重視這個問題，本來是政府不應該管經濟。市場自己能解決的事情政府不應該管。我們這個政府它又不會管。沒有哪一個國家的政府真正管企業，企業應該是由企業家來管。」
段紹譯介紹，在西方國家，政府的作用是補充市場的缺陷。如：提供最低生活保障，推行義務教育，醫療保險等。民眾評價，在中國，當局所做的正好相反。
採訪編輯/唐音 後製/周天
CCP Sitting on Almost $4 Trillion USD in Foreign Reserves. Why?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) State Council
Information Office recently released the 2013 financial statistics.
China’s foreign exchange reserve is nearly $4 trillion USD.
Economists regard foreign exchange reserves as a
two-edged sword, more is not necessarily better.
CCP State Council Information Office held a press conference
on January 15, 2014 on the 2013 financial statistics.
People’s Bank Survey & Statistics Secretary Sheng Songcheng:
“At the end of December 2013, the country’s foreign exchange
balance was $3.82 trillion,
an increase of $509.7 billion over the previous year."
China’s foreign exchange reserve has four parts:
First, huge trade surplus,
Second, substantial increase of foreign direct investment,
Third, sustained increase of foreign loans,
Fourth, “hot money" led by expected RMB appreciation.
When foreign exchange reserves reached $3.7 trillion
China’s State Administration of Foreign Currency
Secretary Yi Gang said:
when foreign exchange reserve exceeds a certain amount,
the marginal cost is greater than marginal revenue.
Then,further increase is uneconomical.
Beijing Normal University MBA instructor, economic columnist
Duan Shaoyi:
“This is a stupid and wrong decision.
The advantage of international trade is to have each country
as the market, play everyone’s strengths and break even.
If you do not buy with your money,
then money becomes a pile of paper.
And you give the wealth to others."
A large foreign exchange reserve can ensure market stability.
But too much reserve increases the pressure of RMB appreciation.
Alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation by increasing
the money supply or lowering interest rates.
The already extremely loose monetary market will become
too loose, and will stimulate the domestic asset market bubble.
There are many negative effects.
Peiking University Professor and China’s Economist Li Yining
also publicly stated that foreign exchange reserve is not the more
the better. The key is to use it!
Duan Shaoyi said China’s foreign exchange reserve now
is mostly in U.S. banks and is used to buy U.S. Treasury bonds,
China has a large number of private small business
that cannot get loans at this time.
Public records indicates that U.S. Treasury bonds
bought by China surpassed $1.3 trillion.
Beijing’s Internal reference Chief Researcher Gong Shengli said
Western currency is managed by an independent committee.
He said that the U.S. and the European Union do not have
a monetary mechanism controlled by a political party.
They do not have the right to control monetary resources.
Gong Shengli: “In China it is different.
Chinese RMB started on October 1, 1948
and has been circulating for 65 years.
It has always been controlled by the Party.
China’s Central Bank is the People’s Bank.
But it’s only a show.
It only provides the authorities with suggestions.
It has no authority to make decisions.”
The Beijing authorities for years were trying to force
Western countries to admit China is a market economy,
but the U.S. and Europe refused to admit it.
Gong Shengli pointed out the key people
who manipulate China’s Foreign exchange reserve.
Gong Shengli: “CCP’s manipulation is based on
whether it is good for the CCP or not.
Banks report to the CPP Political Bureau of seven members.
In the past there were nine members.
They decide either to go up or down, etc.”
On January 15, Shenzhen University professor and economist
Guo Shiping wrote on his microblog:
The cause of this situation are the restrictions caused by the system.
In the past, we did not have enough foreign exchange.
Money came from enterprises. Export revenues were handed to
the State.Companies took Chinese RMB.
China’s current foreign exchange reserve is high.
We should change this policy,
allow enterprises to retain foreign exchange and
give foreign exchange to the people.
To resolve the issue of huge foreign exchange reserves,
China and foreign experts put forward various proposals.
Duan Shaoyi believes that the key is for
the authorities not to interfere with economy.
Duan Shaoyi: “Our Government should pay attention to this.
Government should not manage the market economy.
They should not be involved in the areas
that can be adjusted by the market.
Our Government also does not know how to manage the
economy. No other country’s government manages enterprises.
Enterprises should be managed by entrepreneurs. “
Duan Shaoyi stated that in Western countries,
the role of Government is to supplement market deficiencies
such as:
providing minimum living standards,
promoting compulsory education and medical insurance, etc.
In China the authorities have done just the opposite.
Interview & Edit/Tang Yin Post-Production/Zhou tan
