【新唐人2014年01月11日訊】最近中國大陸開始推出銀行破產條例和存款保險制度，同時還準備試辦由純民資發起的，設立自擔風險的民營銀行，銀行破產也成了大陸金融界的熱門話題。經濟學家指出，近年來，儘管中共一直不願意接受國際社會唱衰中國經濟的聲音，不過，亮麗的數字和天量的貨幣投放，再也無法抵禦經濟規律的無情，於是中共政府不願再為銀行壞賬兜底，試圖斷尾求生。
中共銀監會日前表示，今年將試辦由純民資發起設立自擔風險的銀行。不過，中國第一家民營銀行—民生銀行老闆史玉柱，趕緊發微博表示：即將新批的民營銀行,都不是全牌照銀行,業務範圍被控制的很窄，而且運營地域被限制的很小，所以，他認為，現在發起民營銀行沒啥意思。
而銀監會副主席閻慶民日前表示，銀監會正在醞釀加快推出銀行破產條例，國家不再為儲戶在商業銀行的存款兜底，允許銀行破產倒閉，一旦有銀行破產，儲戶的存款將由存款保險機構賠償，但賠償有一定限額。
根據目前透露的消息，儲戶在單個銀行的存款，最大賠付額度可能是50萬元，超過這一限額的存款部份，將得不到賠償。
大陸企業評論人士文瑞：「在危機時刻，他們也可能採取斷尾巴的模式，斷掉這個尾巴，自己求生存，為了把不良資產處理掉，它有可能讓它破產，存款大頭的損失可能會甩掉它， 把不良資產打包，交給市場去處理掉，實際上也是轉化危機，另外一個，從人員方面，它陸陸續續的甩出去。」
去年12月24號，「招商銀行」發佈公告宣稱，「招行」董事會審議通過了《關於授權高級管理層成員批准及簽署「生前遺囑」的議案》，「生前遺囑」也稱為清算計劃，目地在於表明如何在不危及金融系統的前提下自我清算。
今年以來，大陸銀行業存在已久的問題不斷爆發：不良貸款餘額和不良貸款率雙雙上升、持續的錢荒導致利率多次飆升、大量的資金被放貸到房地產行業，和地方政府融資平臺推高了房地產泡沫，也使地方債越滾越大成黑洞…….
據中共銀監會最新數據顯示，截至三季度末，中國商業銀行不良貸款餘額達到5,636億元，較年初增加707億元，而且已連續七個季度呈上升趨勢。
中國經濟學者鄧先生：「現在我們的經濟泡沫、房地產泡沫、潛存的經濟危機步步來臨，而腐敗對這個社會的破壞，已經影響到執政基礎、人民信任，同時還有環境污染。環境污染和各種原因，將成為一個導火索。」
去年，中國四個一線城市房價漲幅超過20%，還有26個主要城市的漲幅超過10％。而三、四線城市竟出現50多座鬼城。
與此同時，部份城市已經債臺高築。南京銀行的研究報告顯示，西寧與蘭州兩地政府發債的「城投債」，去年餘額規模與財政收入比，已經超過300％，而伊春、南寧、湖州、南京等城市的比例也都超過100％，鎮江、合肥則超過90％ 。
大陸金融分析師任中道：「拿一個房地產做例子，房地產泡沫越來越大，它就是完全靠資金在支撐著這個泡沫，一旦很多資金都撤離了，房地產肯定是要崩盤的，房地產一崩，馬上就會波及到很大，銀行、各個上下游的企業、行業，無論是建材等等，都會波及到。」
與中國經濟衰竭伴隨而來的是，外資企業紛紛撤離中國，去年5月到7月，就有5家跨國公司撤離中國。新年伊始，法國化妝品公司「歐萊雅」決定，旗下品牌「卡尼爾」撤離中國。在此之前，「歐萊雅」的美國競爭對手「露華濃」，也宣佈將撤出中國市場，並縮減1100個工作崗位。
隨著「美聯儲」宣佈，從今年1月開始逐漸退出「量化寬鬆(QE) 」。經濟學家們估計，將有更多企業離開中國，使中國經濟危機加劇。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/蕭宇
China’s Economic Crisis Intensifies, Are You Ready?
Mainland China recently launched bank bankruptcy rules
and deposit insurance systems.
Meanwhile there are plans to pilot private banks only
funded by private capital.
Bank bankruptcy has become a hot topic in financial sectors.
Economists say although the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) wouldn’t like to accept the international voice about
China’s economy going down in recent years, the data and
huge money supply can’t stop the economic laws.
The CCP doesn’t want to take care of the bad debts of
Banks, and is trying to find a way out.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC)
recently announced that China will pilot private banks
that carry their own risks.
Shi Yuzhu, boss of Minsheng Bank, China’s first private bank,
soon posted on Weibo.
He indicated that new private banks will not be fully licensed,
meaning their business scope will be very narrow.
Even their region of operation will be restricted
to a very small area.
So, he thinks it’s not very meaningful to
launch private banks now.
Vice chairman of CBRC, Yan Qingmin, recently indicated
that the CBRC is accelerating the introduction of bank
bankruptcy rules, meaning the nation will not take care
of commercial banks balances. Banks will go bankrupt.
Deposit insurance companies will cover the losses of
the depositors within limits.
According to current information, depositors can get 500,000
yuan compensation at most for a single account.
Deposits that exceeds the limit will not be compensated.
Wen Duan, mainland industry commentator: “During crises,
they’re likely to take the model of ‘cutting the tail off’, meaning
cutting the dead tail off so the body survives.
In order to get rid of the bad assets, they may let banks go
bankrupt. The major part of the deposit will be got rid of, and
the bad asset will be given to the market.
It’s a way to transfer a crisis. It can also get rid of the staff."
China Merchants Bank announced on December 24 2013
that CMB board passed a proposal after consideration, on
how to do self-clearing under the premise of not putting the
financial system at risk.
Problems that have been seen in mainland banks for
a long time broke out many times this year:
Bad debt balances and NPL ratio have both increased.
Money shortages caused by interest rate hikes.
Large amounts of funds are loaned to real estate industry.
local governments’ financing platforms raised the real estate
bubble, making local debt grow bigger and bigger.
According to the latest data from CBRC, bad debt of Chinese
commercial banks hit 563.6 billion yuan by the third quarter.
This was increasing by 70.7 billion yuan compared
to the beginning of the year.
It’s the 7th quarter that has contuously increased.
Mr. Deng, Chinese economy scholar:"Now we have economy
bubble, real estate bubble, a potential economic crisis coming.
Corruption has damaged the society, ruling foundation,
people’s trust, and the environment.
Environment pollution and all kind of problems
will become a trigger."
The housing prices of four China’s first tier cities raised by
20%,and 26 major cities raised by10%.
But among third and fourth tier cities,
there were 50 ghost cities.
Meanwhile, some cities have very high debt.
A research report by Nanjing Bank shows that governments
of Xining and Lanzhou had city to vote bonds exceeding last
years revenue by 300%;
Yinchun, Nanning, Huzhou, and Nanjing City also exceeded
100%; Zhenjiang and Hefei exceeded 90%.
Ren Zhongdao, mainland financial analyst:
“Let’s take real estate as an example.
The real estate bubble is getting bigger and bigger.
It totally relies on money to support the bubble.
Once the money is withdrawn, the real estate will surely
collapse, and then other industries will be impacted including
banks, downstream businesses, and building materials etc."
Following China’s economic failure,
foreign companies will pull out of China.
Five multinational corporations left China
last year between May to July.
French cosmetics company L’Oreal decided to let its brand
Garnier pull out of China at the beginning of this year.
L’Oreal’s competitor Revlon, an American company, stated
they were pulling out of the Chinese market cutting 1100 jobs.
Federal Reserve announced that the US will gradually pull
back quantitative easing (QE) from this January.
This will make more industries leave China, and intensify
China’s economic crisis, economists say.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/XiaoYu
