【新唐人2014年01月09日訊】2013年歲末，中國銀行業「錢荒」再起的當口，美聯儲宣佈縮減「量化寬鬆（QE）」，雙重壓力下，中國大陸金融危機已悄然爆發。大陸獨立財經評論員牛刀預言：現在一套房子的價錢，一、兩年後可以買三套，房價將打回原形。而業界人士表示，中國貨幣泡沫破滅、及房價崩潰的真實面目，因為中共的刻意掩蓋，將令老百姓付出沉重代價。
從上個月12月17號開始，中國銀行業間市場短期拆借利率陡然震盪飆升，金融系統在「天量」貨幣投放之下仍鬧「錢荒」，凸顯大陸金融系統存在大量泡沫。
美聯儲宣佈，從今年1月開始，「量化寬鬆(QE)」將逐漸退出。「QE」主要是指中央銀行在實行零利率或近似零利率政策後，通過購買國債等中長期債券，增加基礎貨幣供給，向市場注入大量流動性資金的干預方式。
大陸媒體報導，財經金融評論家余豐慧表示，「QE」退出，將造成中國內地市場流動性資金緊缺，房地產泡沫將被刺破，金融風險將爆發。
大陸獨立財經評論人士「牛刀」也在1月7號的博文中指出，中國貨幣泡沫正在破滅之中，房價的崩潰首當其衝。
牛刀表示，中共當局在2009年濫發貨幣以後，看似上漲飛快的大陸房價，從對應的貨幣貶值幅度來看，實際房價卻是一直下降，這就是貨幣泡沫，而這種貨幣泡沫破滅後房價將「打回原形」。
「牛刀」預言：現在一套房子的價錢，一、兩年後，可以買三套。
大陸金融分析師任中道表示：中國房地產的泡沫，因貨幣泡沫的破滅，也正在逐漸的破裂。
大陸金融分析師任中道：「大陸房地產有價無市，有這個價格在飆升，但卻沒有這個市場，那因此它最後破裂的時候，房地產的房價肯定會大跌，那麼，現在哪怕一套房值100萬，那可能跌到一定程度，到1-2年或2-3年，那一套房子只有2、30萬這樣的情況，所以說現在的一套房子買以後的2、3套吧。」
「牛刀」在他的博文中還表示，大陸房價泡沫充斥著無數看似合理，實質上是徹頭徹尾的謊言。如「炒樓都賺了錢」、「房子會升值」、「不買房價還會漲」等。
2000年，大陸浙江溫州人開始在上海、杭州、蘇州、廈門、北京、寧波、金華等地置業。據媒體報導，十幾年來，溫州炒房團如莊稼地裡的「蝗災」，所到之處，必然「掃走」當地大量房產。
美國「南卡羅萊納大學」艾肯商學院教授謝田表示：錢荒泡沫增大的時候，肯定有人賺，但大部分人被套在裡面，甚至血本無歸。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「炒作出來一定有人賺，這些賺的人一定是在炒作脫手之後才賺，但被套牢的人是更多的人，賺錢的人是小部分人，是地方政府、房企、國有企業，國有銀行他們賺錢。」
去年，中國四個一線城市的房價漲幅都超過20%，26個主要城市的漲幅超過10％。中共官方媒體6號也轉載文章說，大陸三、四線城市爆發50多座鬼城，但一、二線城市房價將繼續出現上漲的現象。
謝田：「老百姓被房市價格上漲、迅速上漲給嚇壞了，害怕未來會長的更快、更加負擔不起，實際上是老百姓被愚弄了、被欺騙了。因為在中國沒有一個獨立的透明的媒體，可以明確的告知人們這個房市的風險，這個實際上是，不管是掠奪也好，信息封鎖也好，這個最後的根源就是由於中共。」
而面對樓市崩潰，政府會救市之說，牛刀表示：有槍就是草頭王，有良知的人是少之又少。這幾年的經濟增長完全建立在幾千萬「房奴」幾十年的打拼上，他們將徹底毀了這一生。
謝田表示，中共這2年會繼續維持或推高房價，銀行錢荒可能會繼續出現，而銀根緊縮，迫使中共繼續印鈔票救助，進一步引發通貨膨脹，讓老百姓更加苦不堪言。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/周天
Scholars Expose Chinese Communist Party Lies:
China’s House Prices Will Drop to One-Third
As China’s cash squeeze worsened again at year end, the
Federal Reserve announced a reduction of its monthly
quantitative-easing (QE) program.
Burdened by both, China’s finance system may have quietly
seen an upcoming crisis.
A Chinese independent finance commentator Niu Dao said
one or two years later the house prices will only be one
third of the current level.
A scholar commented that, the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) was hiding the truth of China’s serious inflation and
collapsing house market.
The Chinese will have to pay a heavy price for it.
Since Dec. 17, there has been a sudden spike in China’s
short-term inter-bank rates.
Despite a huge amount of money injection into the finance
system, China’s cash crunch has not been eased.
This clearly shows how big China’s economic bubble is.
In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that the
quantitative-easing (QE) program will gradually be stopped.
QE refers to a central banks’ intervention policy after zero
or close to zero interest rate is applied.
QE is implemented by purchasing middle – or long-term
financial assets to increase the monetary base and produce
more market liquidity.
Chinese media quoted financial commentator Yu Fenghui.
Yu said, the end of QE will lead to worsened market liquidity
in mainland China.
The house bubble may blow up, leading to extremely
high financial risks.
Niu Dao, a Chinese independent finance commentator,
posted a blog article on Jan. 7.
He said, China’s monetary bubble is on its way to blow up,
which will immediately result in collapsing house prices.
Niu Dao said, it is the CCP excessively printing money in 2009
that pushed China’s house prices to surge.
If including the factor of currency depreciation, China’s house
prices are indeed dropping these past years.
After such a “monetary bubble" bursts, house prices will
apparently drop its “real value".
Niu Dao thus predicted that the current house prices will
drop to one-third in one or two years.
Chinese financial analyst Ren Zhongdao said China’s house
bubble is bursting along with the “monetary bubble".
Ren Zhongdao, Chinese financial analyst: “China’s house
prices are not supported by a real market.
We see surging prices but can’t see the corresponding market.
When the bubble finally blows up there must be a huge
dive in house prices.
For example, if you buy a house with a million Yuan right now,
after one-to-two or two-to-three years probably it will be
only worth 200,000 or 300,000 Yuan.
So we say you can buy two or three houses in the future with
the same amount of money for one house right now."
On his blog, Niu Dao also said China’s house market is full of
out-and-out lies which seem reasonable at first glance.
Examples are “real estate speculation always makes profit",
“house values will rise" and “you will have to pay more for
a house in the future".
Since 2000, the riches from Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province
had purchased many properties in cities including Shanghai,
Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xiamen, Beijing, Ningbo and Jinhua.
Chinese media reported that the Wenzhou real estate
speculation group acted like locusts in the past decade.
They “swept" through the local house market
wherever they had gone.
Xie Tian, Professor of University of South Carolina Aiken,
said some will become icher as the inflation worsens.
However, most people will suffer loss of property,
or even lose all their assets.
Xie Tian, Professor of University of South Carolina Aiken:
“Speculation will definitely make some people richer.
However, they have to make profits after disposing of
those houses. A lot more will be trapped into the game.
Those who become richer are only a small part, including
housing enterprises, state-owned enterprises and local
governments. They make money from this process."
Last year, four of China’s first-tier cities saw more than 20%
increase in house prices.
Twenty-six major cities saw an increase over 10%.
The CCP’s mouthpiece media quoted an article on Jan. 6,
saying despite more than 50 “ghost towns" in China’s third-
or fourth-tier cities, house prices in first- and second-tier
cities continue to rise.
Xie Tian:"Chinese civilians are simply appalled by
surging house prices.
They are afraid that they have to spend more
on a house in the future.
The truth is, most Chinese have been fooled on this issue, as
there are no independent or transparent media in China to
clarify the risks in the house market.
No matter if we call this plunder or information block,
the Communist Party is the mastermind of everything."
Some Chinese still believe that the CCP will bail the house
market out to prevent a crash.
Niu Dao commented that, most Chinese had lost their
conscience and only believe in power.
The truth is, China’s economic growth these past years is
completely based on tens of millions of “mortgage slaves"
suffering in the next several decades.
Their lives have been completely messed up.
Xie Tian said, the party would still try to keep the current
house price in the next several years.
The cash shortage of the banking system may come again,
which will force the CCP to print more money.
Consequently, Chinese civilians will suffer even more from
the worsening inflation.
Interview & Edit/YiRu Post-Production/ZhouTian
