【新唐人2014年01月08日訊】大陸將推動民間資本進入銀行業，首批試點3至5家。但是到目前為止，還沒有看到中共當局對民營銀行提出相關規則草案。專家擔心，當前的政策和體制還沒有完善，放開民營銀行有不少風險。而這些所謂的「民營銀行」是否真的能獨立私營，未來還是個問號。同時，這個試點作法，恐怕還是黑箱操作。
6號召開的2014年全國銀行業監管工作會議，銀監會提出，2014年要擴大銀行業對內對外開放，試辦由純民資發起設立自擔風險的銀行業金融機構，首批試點3至5家。銀監會前副主席蔡鄂生此前表示，民營銀行牌照第一批有望在3月份前發牌。
據了解，中國民間幾大資本家對成立民營銀行躍躍欲試，其中阿里巴巴、蘇寧雲商、騰訊、百度等互聯網廠商，紛紛遞交銀行牌照申請。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長盛洪：「本來就應該開放民間的銀行，這不是甚麼令人高興的消息，他們做了，勉強開放一、兩家，好像是恩賜一樣，這個我覺得沒有甚麼覺得興奮的。這個市場經濟大家就應該進入金融機構。」
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「但是這些銀行一旦出現的時候，是不是能夠私營，真正獨立的私營，能不能和中共的國有銀行公平競爭，這是一個巨大的問號，我認為在當今的中共絕對統治、絕對獨裁的專政制度條件下，這種民營或私人民間的資本，這樣做還是有風險的。」
「中央財經大學銀行業研究中心」主任郭田勇對媒體表示，「對於民營資本辦銀行的風險，主要有三個方面：第一，擔心民營企業家或民營資本不懂銀行；第二，擔心民營銀行出現利益輸送，搞關聯交易；第三，擔心民營資本沒辦好銀行捲錢外逃，給社會帶來嚴重影響。」
根據中共銀監會的說法，將拓寬民間資本進入銀行業的管道方式，一方面引導民間資本參與現有銀行業金融機構的重組改制﹔另一方面試辦由純民資發起設立自擔風險的銀行業金融機構。
謝田：「我覺得不是太看好，對民間的資本家來說，這可能也不是一個非常好的機會。中共對中國的金融的控制實際上是不會放鬆的，現在說有限制的放行試點，首先試批幾家幾家，這種作法全部都是屬於黑箱操作，因為在正常國家，如果任何人願意設立私營銀行，他只要滿足條件就可以，不需要政府來決定幾家。」
「英國廣播公司《BBC》」報導，中共當局開放嚴格控制的金融業，主要是想創造刺激經濟增長的一個新的浪潮。
謝田：「中共為甚麼在這個時候，拓寬民間資本進入銀行業呢？我想是跟中共國有銀行出現的錢荒有關，他們實際感覺到資金短缺，現金流短缺，流動性短缺，實際是希望讓民間的資本，用另一個方式進入流通，為這個經濟緩解一些壓力，所以在這種情況下，我們可以看到，中共實際上是另有目地、別有用心的，而不是真正希望民間的資本坐大。」
盛洪：「我們沒必要載歌載舞去歡慶這件事情，這件事情本來他們該做沒有做。國有的它欠債很多，他們很多年都是壞帳，壞帳比例高達30％、40％，就讓納稅人去承擔這樣的一個結果，這不是很可笑的事嗎？」
中共審計署上週公布報告指出，截至去年6月底，中國地方政府負債高達人民幣17萬9000億元，高於2010年底的人民幣10萬7000億元。
根據美國《彭博社》報導，自2008年全球金融危機以來，中國就開始以大量信貸，提供大量資金，進行國內投資，以飆升令全球垂涎的高GDP數字，因此整體借貸數字成長十分快速，從2008年佔GDP的125％，到2012年時已高達215％，信貸數字如滾雪球般成長。
採訪/常春 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬
Financial Expert: No Optimism In China’s Private Bank Pilot Plan
China wants banks to tap private capital.
The regime has approved a pilot plan to set up
three to five private banks.
So far, the draft rules for these private banks
have not been issued.
Experts worry that the current policy and system have not
improved and there are many risks to opening private banks.
Can the so-called “private bank” operate independently?
The pilot plan is likely a black-box operation.
On Jan. 6, 2014, China Banking Regulatory Commission
(CBRC) reported that the banking sector will open up in 2014.
The pilot banks, formed by private capital,
are a self-risk financial institution.
The regulator has approved the first pilot plan to set up
three to five private banks.
Former CBRC Chairman Cai E’sheng said that the licenses
for the first batch of private banks are expected to be ready
before March.
Sources say that a handful of online commerce giants
including Alibaba, Suning, Tencent and Baidu have submitted
applications for licenses.
Sheng Hong, deputy director of Beijing Unirule Institute
of Economics: “There is nothing to be happy about regarding
private banks opening up.
They have barely opened one or two and they act like they
are doing the public a huge favor.
I think there is nothing to be excited about.
In a market-oriented economy, people should be allowed
to set up in the financial sector.”
Xie Tian, Business School, University of South
Carolina Aiken: “Once the private banks launch,
will they be truly independent operations?
Can they compete with state-owned banks?
This is a big question mark.
Under the communist rule and dictatorship, there are risks
for private owners to operate with private capital.”
Guo Tianyong, director of the Research Center of the Chinese
Banking Industry at Central University of Finance
and Economics told the media that there are three risks
for the private banks—
operators don’t understand the banking industry,
Party officials may attempt to make transfers,
and anyone who flees with money (a common occurrence
in China) when the operation fails will seriously
impact society.”
The CBRC is also planning to widen access for the private
sector to the state-assets-dominated banking sector.
It wants to guide private capital to participate
in the restructuring of the current financial institution.
On the other hand, these banks can set up a proper risk
management scheme by themselves.
Xie Tian: “I am not too optimistic.
For private business owners, it may not be a good opportunity.
Actually, the regime will not relax the financial sector.
Now there is a limited opening, they only approved a few.
It is a black-box operation.
In a standard country, if anyone wants to set up a private bank
and they meet the conditions, they don’t need to allow
the government to make the decision on how many can
be set up.”
A BBC report said, “China has been looking to open up its
tightly-controlled financial sector, to spur a fresh new wave
of economic growth.”
Xie Tian: “Why at this moment does China broaden
private capital access to the banking sector?
I think it relates to the shortage of money
in state-owned banks.
They know there is an issue of the shortage of funds,
cash flow, liquidity.
They intend to use private funds to ease the pressure.
Under such a circumstance, we can see that the regime
has ulterior motives.
They don’t really want private capital to grow.”
Sheng Hong: “We don’t need to celebrate.
They should have done this but they didn’t.
The state-owned businesses have many debts.
The bad debts have lasted for several years, and have reached
a bad debt ratio of 30 to 40 percent.
They let the taxpayers bear the brunt, isn’t it ridiculous?”
CBRC’s report stated that local governments had a total
outstanding debt of 17.9 trillion yuan (US$2.96 trillion)
at the end of June 2013, which is more than 2010’s
10.7 trillion yuan (US$1.77 trillion).
Bloomberg reports that since the financial crisis of 2008,
“China has racked up impressive growth in
gross domestic product (GDP) by engineering
an investment boom, fueled by a surge in easy credit.
Total debt has risen sharply, from 125 percent of the GDP
in 2008 to 215 percent in 2012.”
Interview/Changchun Edit/HuangYimei Post-Production/LiYongGuoJing
