【新唐人2013年10月22日訊】進入2013 年，中國經濟走入低迷。製造業產能過剩、投資回報率低、地方債務加大、房地產泡沫日趨嚴重，放緩的經濟引發外界關注。上週五，中共國家統計局發佈前三季度中國GDP同比增長7.7％，其中三季度增長7.8％。不過，這組亮麗的數據受到多方質疑。數字背後真實的情況到底是怎麼樣？
10月18號，中共國家統計局公布的數字顯示，今年前三季度中國經濟增速為7.7％。其中第三季度經濟增速為7.8％，相比第二季度的7.5％有較大幅度回升。
統計局於官網公布的數據還指出，今年前三季中國GDP總值達人民幣38兆6千762億元。
大陸經濟學者馬光遠在新浪微博上表示，不能以GDP的數據來看待中國經濟好壞。
《法蘭克福匯報》、《世界報》對中國的官方數據也半信半疑：「北京公布的最新數據振奮了全球的金融市場，因為中國經濟顯得比許多國際觀察員估計得要穩定。但是這些數字看起來太像被政府定好後通過統計局公布的。」
北京師範大學MBA導師、經濟專欄作家段紹譯認為，7.8%和7.5%是一回事，只要這個數據對中共有利，它就公布這個數字。
北京師範大學MBA導師段紹譯：「我首先對它的數字的準確性我是不相信的，中國的統計數據本來就是它政治的需要、政府想寫多少就寫多少，相對於去年、前年來講，它的經濟增長速度確實降低了，到底降低到甚麼程度，誰也不知道。」
京華山一證券研究部主管彭偉新認為，第三季度的GDP數據受到質疑，是由於過去一段時間市場出現的錢荒。
京華山一證券研究部主管彭偉新：「也讓外界方面對於內地銀行方面出現壞賬，出現一個非常大的增加，也是有這個預期」。
大陸金融分析師任中道表示，拉動經濟增長的三駕馬車投資、消費以及外貿，對GDP增幅做了貢獻，而實際情況另有原因。
大陸金融分析師任中道：「它有相當一部分投資用到房地產，它不斷的瘋漲房價，地王出現的越來越多，外貿基本是負的、是負數，多個行業的產能過剩特別嚴重，鋼鐵、水泥等等，另一方面，它投資很多是去貸款、去發行、信託等，地方債也是不斷的升高，由此可見，為甚麼質疑它，那就是它地方債和它投資的產能過剩有多麼嚴重，這就是他背後的情況。」
據中共國家統計局官方公布的8月份70個大中城市房價數據變動情況顯示，一線城市房價漲幅更多，城市新建商品住宅價格同比上漲在18%-20%之間，二線城市同比上漲大都在7%-10%之間。
不過，彭偉新表示，第三季度GDP較第二季度增長，是由於上半年鐵道部改製成鐵路總公司時，停止的與鐵路相關的一些基建投資又從新開始加快。
京華山一證券研究部主管 彭偉新：「還有我們看到上半年製造業方面的情況是比較悲觀的，但在下半年開始，在PMI的增長從新回覆到50這個水平，明顯看到內地製造業相關一些增長加快，也讓GDP的增長在第三季度出現一個非常明顯的增加。」
但彭偉新認為，整體樓價漲幅太快，以及人民銀行對於一些貸款的增長限制，可能讓GDP在第四季度的增長緩慢下來。
任中道則表示，由於當下中國的經濟環境整體不行，許多企業覺得去做實業太難，於是把錢投到房地產業，投到影子銀行，造成了這樣的虛假繁榮。
大陸金融分析師任中道：「因此第一個質疑它這個數據，這個數據看著很亮，背後反映的是它的泡沫化，是更加的嚴重。」
任中道認為，只有通過經濟學家、通過企業主的反饋，還有地方政府的操作行為，一起綜合起來分析，才是中國經濟實質的狀況，而不是依靠中共國家統計局放出的這麼一個數據。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/鍾元
China’s Q3 GDP Increase Had Hidden Economic Crisis
China’s economy slowed down in 2013, with manufacturing
overcapacity, low return on investment, local debt increase,
a worsening real estate bubble and economic slowdown.
On October 18, China’s National Bureau of Statistics
released China’s GDP for the first three quarters of the year
indicating an increase of 7.7%, with Q3 growth of 7.8%.
However, this good data received many questions.
What is the the real situation behind the numbers?
Figures published by Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s
National Bureau of Statistics on October 18 indicates that
China’s economic growth in the first three quarters was 7.7%,
with 7.8% in Q3, a substantial recovery against Q2 at 7.5%.
The official website of the Bureau of Statistics also indicate
China’s GDP of the first three quarters of 2013 reached 38
trillion and 676.2 billion yuan.
Chinese economists Ma Guangyuan stated on Sina microblog,
the GDP data cannot be used to judge the Chinese economy.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and Le Monde are also
dubious about CCP’s official data:
“The latest news from Beijing stimulates the global financial
market, as China’s economy seems to be more stable than
many international observers have estimated.
But these numbers seem too likely given by the government
and announced by the the Bureau of Statistics."
Beijing Normal University MBA tutor, economics columnist
Duan Shaoyi thinks 7.8% and 7.5% is very close.
As long as this data is beneficial to the CCP, it will publish.
Duan Shaoyi: “First I do not believe in the numbers.
China’s statistical data follows political needs.
It is whatever the government wants it to be.
China’s economic growth is indeed slower than last year
and the year before. But no one knows to what extent."
Peng Weixin, head of Securities Research Department at
Pang Core Pacific Yamaichi, thinks questions on Q3 GDP
data is due to money shortage around mid-year.
Peng Weixin: “It also caused the outside world expectation
that China’s banks will have a large increase in bad debts.”
China’s financial analysts Ren Zhongdao expressed that
the three key factors to push economic growth are:
Investment, consumption and foreign trade contributing
to the growth of GDP.
However, there are other reasons in reality.
Ren Zhongdao: “Quite a big portion of the investment
went to real estate. The housing prices keep increasing.
There are more and more real-estate tycoons.
Foreign trade is mainly negative, it is negative.
Many professions suffer from serious overcapacity, steel,
cement, etc.
On the other hand, investments went to loans, trust, etc.
Why do people question it?
The local debt issue and overcapacity issues are very serious."
According to the data released by National Bureau,
70 large and medium cities house price changes in August
indicate first-tier cities’ housing prices rose more.
New residential house prices rose between 18% -20%,
and mostly second-tier cities rose between 7% -10 % .
However, Peng Weixin said Q3’s growth vs Q2 is caused by
H1’s conversion of Ministry of Railways Railway into the
General Railway Co.
All rail-related infrastructure investment that was halted then
started up again at an accelerated pace.
Peng Weixin: “The situation of the manufacturing sector
was pessimistic in H1.
But in H2, the PMI growth went up back to 50.It is obvious
that was significant growth in manufacturing related fields.
This contributes to the significant GDP growth in Q3."
But Peng Weixin thinks that the overall real estate prices
rose too fast.
The People’s Bank’s limitations of certain loan growth
might slow down the growth of GDP in Q4.
Ren Zhongdao stated that the overall economic environment
in China today is not good.
Many companies feel it is too difficult to do actual production,
so they put money into real estate, invested in shadow banking.
This caused a false prosperity.
Ren Zhongdao: “So firstly is the question around this data.
The data looked bright, but it reflects the bubble behind it."
Ren Zhongdao thinks only through a consolidated analysis
by economists, including feedback from business owners and
taking into consideration operations of local governments,
can there be a real reflection of China’s economy.
Its not posisble to rely on the CCP National Bureau of
Statistics’ data.
NTD Reporter Yi Ru
