【新唐人2013年10月21日訊】近年來，中國大陸民怨沸騰，群體抗暴事件此起彼伏。中共政權面臨內憂外患、充滿重重危機。這種情況下，海內外各界包括中共高層內部，都在紛紛議論中共何時垮臺、如何垮臺的問題。
《德國之聲》中文網18號引用美國克萊蒙特•麥肯納學院教授裴敏欣的話預測：在未來10至15年間，中國會出現「突然的、無序的變革」，也就是中共「政權垮臺」。
裴敏欣談到，「這個政權挺過了許多危機，但不可能長此以往下去」。他認為，伴隨著每次危機，中共維持統治的成本都在上升，這包括：不斷膨脹的警察機構和政治審查系統。同時，政府機構臃腫、嚴重環境污染、社會老齡化等問題，都沒有得到解決。而中產階級從體制中疏離，更是有史以來第一次，凸顯中共執政危機。
時事評論員林子旭則認為，中共就是明天突然垮掉，也很正常。
時事評論員林子旭：「中共在過去的幾十年裡做過的壞事太多太多了，這些原罪目前通過網絡正在被大面積的曝光出來，這些真相猶如一把把利劍，在網絡技術高度發達的今天，正在勢不可擋的刺向中共。」
2008年歐美金融危機爆發後，中共當局為了擺脫困境，大量增發貨幣刺激經濟增長。這使得原本就已經產能過剩的中國經濟泡沫化越發嚴重。不少經濟專家指出，因為出口下滑、私營企業頻頻倒閉等問題，中國經濟已經處於硬著陸之中。
據渣打銀行估計，中國地方政府債務規模已達24萬億元左右。大陸審計署2012年進行的評測顯示，中國有9個省會城市的債務率超過100%，負債最高的城市債務率達219.57%。同時，德意志銀行估計，中國「影子銀行」的資金規模有21萬億，也有預測認為高達40萬億。而房地產過熱則是眾所周知的問題。
金融分析師任中道：「地方債、影子銀行、房地產（的問題）這方面嚴重，如果出現問題的話，也是導致中共從經濟上的崩潰。」
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明認為，對中共來說，目前有四個致命因素：第一，中共專制體制違背世界潮流；第二，中共官員的貪腐已經無法制約﹔第三，越來越多的民眾覺醒並拋棄中共﹔此外，中國經濟危機已經爆發。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「從它目前折騰的情況來看，我相信習近平不可能再有第二個任期。我感覺在未來的5年之內，中共會出現大的危機。」
上個月，英國《金融時報》報導，甚至在中共中央黨校內部，都在公開討論中共崩潰的問題。在中國內外，越來越多的人相信，中共已經處於垂死狀態。
時事評論員林子旭表示，目前中共已經具備了亡黨的所有條件，只差一個突破口。也就是，現在對中共來說處處是乾柴，只是在等一個火種。
採訪/易如 編輯/李謙 後製/李智遠
Experts Speculate Collapse of Communist China
In recent years, many protests have occurred in China.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
facing many internal and external crises.
Is time up for the CCP, and what does this mean?
This question has become a hot topic for people inside
and outside China including high-levels of the CCP.
The Chinese version of Deutsche Welle cited
Professor Pei Minxin, Claremont Mckenna College.
Pei speculates that in the next 10 to 15 years, there will
occur a sudden, disorderly change in Communist China.
Pei thinks the CCP will collapse.
Pei says the regime has survived in many
crises, but it is impossible to continue like this.
Pei believes that with each crisis, the funds
needed for the CCP to maintain stability increase.
This includes expanding surveillance
agencies and internet censorship systems.
Problems of government overstaffing, environmental
pollution, and an aging society remain unresolved.
The middle-class is gradually moving away from the regime.
This is the first time this has occurred in the CCP’s history.
This highlights the CCP’s crises of legitimacy.
Lin Zixu, current affairs commentator says it is
understandable if the CCP collapses tomorrow.
Lin Zixu: “The CCP has committed
too many crimes over the past decades.
Its crimes are being largely exposed via the internet.
All these truths are like sharp swords, stabbing at the
CCP through today’s advanced network technologies.”
After the European and US financial crisis outbreak in 2008,
the CCP issued printing of large amounts of bank notes.
This was to stimulate economic growth,
in order to get rid of the crisis in China.
However, this made the already
overstretched economic bubble worsen.
Some economists say that because exportation has
declined, private enterprises are frequently bankrupt.
China’s economy is heading for a hard landing.
The Standard Chartered Bank estimated that Chinese local
government debt has reached 24 trillion yuan ($3.94 trillion).
The 2012 audit shows that nine capital
cities had a debt ratio exceeding 100%.
The highest debt ratio reached 219.57%.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank says China’s shadow banking
has 21 trillion of funds, with some estimates at 40 trillion.
The over heated real estate is a well-known problem.
Ren Zhongdao, financial analyst: “Local debts,
shadow banking, and real estate problems are serious.
If the worst thing happens, it certainly
can collapse the CCP in financially.”
Xia Ming, Professor in Political Science, City University of
New York says there are four deadly factors for the CCP.
CCP authoritarian dictatorship is against the world
trend; it is also unable to control corruption amongst
officials; more people are awakening and abandoning
the CCP; and China’s economic crisis has broken out.”
Xia Ming: “From its current situation, I speculate
that Xi Jinping won’t hold a second term.
In the next five years, the CCP will face a great crisis.”
Last month, The Financial Times reported that
“Even at the Central Party School there is talk
of the unthinkable: the collapse of the CCP”.
More and more people in China and overseas
believe that the CCP has run into a dead end.
Lin Zixu says the CCP shows all the conditions of
collapse, and only needs to hit a breakthrough point.
There is firewood stacked everywhere around
the CCP, and now it’s just waiting for a spark.
