【新唐人2013年04月20日訊】朝鮮半島歷經多月的緊張氣氛及戰爭威脅後，朝鮮方面在日前略有鬆口，首次提出了談判條件。朝鮮要求，如果美國想尋求與其對話，聯合國首先要取消制裁，同時，美國必須承諾不參與「核戰爭計劃」。不過，韓國方面認為，朝鮮提出的條件實屬「強盜邏輯」。評論人士分析，朝鮮根本不具備戰爭能力，金正恩只是在裝強硬。
《朝中社》報導聲稱，朝鮮國防委員會在4月18號發表聲明，提出了對話談判的三個條件。包括撤回聯合國安理會「制裁決議」的措施，立刻停止針對朝鮮的所謂「挑釁行為」，並全面道歉；要求美韓停止聯合核戰爭軍事演習；和全面撤出部署在韓國和周邊地區的核戰爭手段並不再部署。
韓國統一部官員當天回應說，對朝鮮的聲明表示遺憾，要求朝方立刻取消這種「老套的、不合理的主張」。韓國外交部發言人則對朝鮮提出指責，認為朝方此番言論實屬「強盜邏輯」。
《中國事務》總編伍凡認為，朝鮮提出的這些條件實際上是把談判的門關起來了。
《中國事務》總編伍凡：「它（朝鮮）是要用軍隊、武力統一整個朝鮮，統一韓國。實質這一點是不用講的，內心的。如果韓國把軍隊全部撤掉了，它的軍隊馬上打過來了，那韓國怎麼能同意呢？所以它等於是一個藉口，拒絕談判。」
韓國總統府官員分析表示，目前尚未發現朝鮮發動全面戰爭的跡象，同時判斷，朝鮮已經疲於應對長期的制裁措施以及軍事演習，不具備發動全面戰爭的能力。
時事評論員李善鑒：「談判的問題上它（朝鮮）最近裝強硬。其實誰都知道，它的實力根本是不堪一擊的，就是給大家搗搗亂而已。它的經濟根本支持不了戰爭，一打就垮。其實這種結局只是它自己給自己找個下臺階而已。如果美國和韓國繼續強硬的話，它還會做更多的讓步，當然表現形式一定是冠冕堂皇的給自己找個下臺階。」
英國《路透社》報導引述美國白宮發言人指出，儘管美國準備和朝鮮進行「真心實意的談判」，但這需要朝方展示履行自己的國際義務、恪守放棄它核計劃承諾的「明確信號」，而美方迄今沒有看到這些信號。
另外，美國《紐約時報》中文網透露，去年11月，中共中央政治局委員李建國率團訪問平壤，並帶去了中共新任黨魁習近平的一封信，其中包含了一條簡單的訊息：「不要發射彈道導彈」。不過，金正恩卻在12天後執意發射了飛彈。
今年2月，朝鮮進行第3次核試驗後，中共還曾想派遣數名高級別官員前往平壤，其中包括國務委員戴秉國，不過遭到朝鮮回絕。因此，自去年11月的尷尬訪問後，中共和朝鮮高層的會談一直處於中斷狀態。
而在結束不久的博鰲論壇上，習近平還拋出了「在朝鮮半島和本地區挑事生事，無異於搬起石頭砸自己的腳」的警告。
文章表示，曾被看作「唇齒相依」的中共和朝鮮的關係，在金正恩持續違抗習近平的意願後，朝中關係觸礁。而中共內部正就如何面對金正恩展開激烈辯論。
伍凡：「中共不願意把北朝鮮丟掉，這是個最大的前提。它一直要讓它作緩衝。在這個前提之下，它來應對美國、日本和韓國。金正恩儘管給它造了麻煩，甚至即便有人寫文章要把金正恩甩掉，把北朝鮮甩掉，居然把寫文章的人撤職。就是中共已經很明顯的，它不會把金正恩丟掉。」
另外，時事評論員李善鑒還指出，此前中共江派勢力一直在為朝鮮提供大規模的援助，並由此控制金氏政權。金正恩上臺後並沒有完全遵循習近平的意願，其中有政治平衡的因素。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/李明飛 後製/周天
Kim Jong-un Appears Tough In Negotiations
After many months of increasing tension and threats
of war, North Korea has eased back somewhat.
It has now proposed conditions for negotiation.
North Korea requires that, if the United States wants
a dialogue, the United Nations must first lift sanctions.
The US must also promise not to
participate in the nuclear war plan.
However, South Korea suggest North Korea’s
conditions arise from “gangster logic”.
Commentators believe that North Korea does not have
war capacity, and Kim Jong-un only appears to be tough.
“Central News Agency” reported that the North Korea Na-
tional Defense Commission issued a statement on April 18.
It laid out conditions for engaging in dialogue.
These include; immediately lifting UN sanctions;
ceasing “acts of provocation” against North Korea;
for the US to end joint nuclear war
military exercises with South Korea;
and the US to fully withdraw deployments
in South Korea and surrounding areas.
A South Korean Unification Ministry official responded.
North Korea should immediately cancel its
old-fashioned and unreasonable proposition.
A South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said
that North Korea’s requests stem from “gangster logic”.
Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of the China Affairs,
believes that with these conditions, North Korea
actually shut the door on negotiations.
Wu Fan: “North Korea wants to use
military force to unify North and South.
In reality, it is impossible for South Korea to remove troops.
Would South Korea agree to that? So, it
is only an excuse for refusing negotiation.”
nclude that currently,
there are no signals of a full-scale war from North Korea.
They also believe that North Korea has been struggling
to cope with long-term sanctions and military exercises.
It does not have the ability to launch a full-scale war.
Li Shan Jian, political commentator: “North Korea
pretends to be tough on negotiation issues.
Everyone knows that it is weak, and
it just wants to be a trouble maker.
The North Korean economy cannot support a war and
it will collapse. It is looking for an excuse to back off.
If the US and South Korea remain tough,
North Korea will make more concessions.
Of course, North Korea will offer a good
sounding reason for it to step down.”
Reuters quoted a White House spokesman’s remarks.
“Although the United States and North Korea will sincerely
negotiate, North Korea must fulfill international obligations,
and abide by commitments to give up its nuclear program.
So far, the United States has not seen these signals.”
The Chinese website of the New York Time’s revealed
that in November 2012, Li Jianguo, a member
of China’s Central Committee, visited Pyongyang.
Li brought a letter from China’s new leader, Xi Jinping,
asking Kim Jong-un not to launch ballistic missiles.
However, 12 days later, Kim Jong-un
insisted on firing its missiles.
In February 2013, after North Korea’s third nuclear test, the
Chinese regime wanted to send several high ranking officials,
including State Councilor Dai Bingguo, to visit
Pyongyang, but North Korea declined this visit.
Subsequently, high-level talks between China
and North Korea have been in an interrupted status.
Shortly after the end of the Boao Forum, Xi Jinping
also warned that “troubles on the Korean Peninsula
are tantamount to shooting oneself in the foot.”
The article says that North Korea and
China share a relationship of lips and teeth.
Kim Jong-un continues to defy the wishes of
Xi Jinping, and the relationship is becoming rocky.
How to deal with Kim has become a fierce
debate within the Chinese Communist Party.
Wu Fan: “Mainland China is unwilling to give up North Korea.
It serves as a good buffer zone for China in dealing
with the United States, South Korea, and Japan.
Kim Jong-un has created troubles for China.
Someone wrote an article suggesting giving up
Kim, or North Korea, but they were removed.
This clearly indicated that the Chinese
regime will not give up on Kim Jong-un.
Political commentator Li Shan Jian also points out that
the Jiang faction used to provide large-scale assistance
to North Korea, in order to control the Kim regime.
After Kim Jong-un came to power, he has not
completely followed the wishes of Xi Jinping.
This means there are now political balancing factors.
