【新唐人2013年03月02日訊】十八屆二中全會最近落幕，也為即將召開的「兩會」定下了人事安排，這也代表中共十八大的權力交接臨近尾聲。香港媒體透露，這次的人事佈局牽涉面廣、層級高，當局是「以穩為主」來組建執政團隊。接下來，請看報導。
剛剛閉幕的十八屆二中全會，敲定了中共新一屆國家機構和政協機構的人事安排，剩下的只是等待在全國人大和全國政協會議上對名單表決。
不過，外媒都在預測結果。台灣《中國時報》報導說，屆時習近平將當選國家主席，李克強任總理，張德江任委員長，俞正聲任政協主席，張高麗則擔任常務副總理，沒有懸念。
而台灣《聯合報》認為，在中共政治局委員層面，李源潮料將成為排名第一的副委員長，執掌人大日常工作；劉延東可能成為政協第一副主席，主持政協日常工作。其他現任中央政治局委員，汪洋、馬凱、王滬甯、李建國等，也都會身居要職。
另外，外界更為關注、變動較大的國務院內閣換屆：像外交部、國家發改委、財政部、監察部、央行、鐵道部以及衛生部等，由於部長升職或年齡原因都可能換人。
香港《明報》透露，北京高層對於這次「組閣」非常慎重，人事決策以「求穩」為主。
美國「中國社會民主黨」主持人劉因全：「他們要搞國務院的人事調整，要搞一個大部制，就是進行一些部委的合併，搞成一個大部，這可能是一個看點；第二，我想他們會修改憲法的一些相關的內容；再就是，強調嚴格按照憲法辦事，這個會成為一個看點。」
美國「中國社會民主黨」主持人劉因全認為，中共還可能為了他們在海外的名聲和形象，增加台灣、香港和海外人士成為政協委員，以引導對中共有利的輿論。
法國《歐洲時報》3月1號的評論指出，中國大陸國務院機構改革無疑是中共一系列改革中的重要一環，也是中共執政以來的第13次國務院機構大調整。這次與以往不同的是，當下中國利益多元化的格局已經形成，由於既得利益格局的掣肘，新一輪改革舉步維艱。因此，這次大部制改革也是對中共新領導集體的一次考驗。
而新加坡《聯合早報》則指稱，外界所傳的一些機構撤併，如成立大文化部、大金融監管機構、大環保部等「大動作」改革，未必能很快兌現。特別是對於長期以來自成體系、政企不分的鐵道部改革，更不會一步到位。
在2008年「大部制」改革時，時任鐵道部長劉志軍就曾大力阻止。
美國中文雜誌《北京之春》主編胡平指出，目前中共內部沒有政治強人，人事決策「求穩」是必然的。所以，更多時候他們內部組成一個小圈子，由各個派系討價還價來分贓人選。
政論家胡平：「因為現在他們最擔心一條，就是：它們中共體制內部發生比較大的分裂。所以它把是不是和中央保持一致這事看的更重。最近王岐山講話也談到，絕不允許公開發表和黨的決定不相同的看法，都表明這一點。」
胡平認為，這種條件挑出的新一屆官員，都是與上面關係好、聽話的人。所以，中共以後的決策恐怕與「江、胡時代」差不多，還會把維穩放在最重要的第一位。
就在兩會之前，大陸一些維權人士已經受到打壓：目前身在四川的莫之許，被勸告兩會後再回北京；胡佳到父母家過元宵節，國保追到他父母家；北京的丁家喜律師會被警察全天候陪護到兩會結束；而被非法限制在家的維權人士許志永，已經被警察從北京家中帶走；成都維權人士陳雲飛現在也已經被人看守。
由此看來，習近平在此之前宣稱的「憲政夢」，也只是一句忽悠話。
採訪/李韻 編輯/宋風 後製/周天
18th Party Congress Ends, Stability is Main Theme.
The second meeting of 18th Party Congress recently ended.
It has settled the personnel arrangement for the “Two Sessions”.
This towards to the end of power transfer in National
People’s Congress (NPC) and the National People’s Political Consultative Congress (NPPCC).
According to reports from Hong Kong media,
the personnel arrangements involve officials from a broad spectrum of levels.
The management team has been organized
based on stability. So, let’s look at the report.
The second meeting of 18th Party Congress recently ended.
During the meeting, decisions were made on
personnel arrangements for the NPC and NPPCC.
What is still to be revealed is the
list of names for the Two Sessions.
However, overseas media are making predictions.
Taiwan’s “China Times” reports that Xi Jinping
will be elected Chairman at the meeting.
The Premier will be Li Keqiang, with
Zhang Dejiang as President of NPC,
and Yu Zhengsheng is Chairman of NPPCC.
Zhang Gaoli will serve as Deputy Prime Minister.
These are very predictable.
Taiwan’s “United Daily News" says that at the Politburo
Commissioner level, Li Yuanchao will be Deputy President
of NPC, and overseas normal functioning of the NPC.
It is likely that Liu Yandong will be Deputy Chairman
of CPPCC and overseas normal functioning of CPPCC.
Other Politburo members, such as Wang Yang，Ma Kai,
Wang Huning and Li Jianguo will hold important positions.
However, observers are more concerned about
the state council, which will change more.
This includes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National
Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance,
Ministry of Supervision; the central bank, the
Railways Ministry and the Ministry of Health.
Because the ministers of these departments have been
promoted or are aging, these personnel will be changed.
Hong Kong’s Ming Pao Daily News, said that Beijing’s
top leaders were very cautious for the cabinet.
Personnel decisions were made
based on maintaining stability.
Liu Yinquan, President of “Chinese Social Democratic Party”:
“The CCP wants to adjust personnel arrangements of the
state council and organize large departmental systems.
That means merging some departments into one department.
Secondly, I think the CCP will modify
some content in the Constitution.
Thirdly, it will place emphasis on abiding
by the Constitution, which will be a focus.”
Liu Yinquan thinks that the CCP will give some NPPCC
positions to people from Taiwan and Hong Kong.
The purpose is to maintain their reputation.
On March 1, French European Times commented
that the reform of China’s state council would be
the most important among a series of CCP reforms.
That is the 13th reform after the CCP took power. What
differs from before are the patterns of wealth in China.
Because it is limited by officials vested interests,
new shifts in reform will be very difficult.
So, the large departmental reform will
test the new leadership of the CCP.
Singapore’s “Lianhe Zaobao" highlights that some of the
rumors about closing and merging some departments,
such as founding a large Culture Ministry, as well as large
financial regulation and environmental departments.
These reforms may not happen straight away.
Especially for independent, government enterprises,
or reforms of Railways Ministry, which won’t be seen soon.
When large departments reformed in 2008, the minister
of the Railways Ministry made large efforts to stop it.
Editor of Chinese American magazine “Beijing Spring",
Hu Ping, points out that there is no political strongman
within the inner CCP, so it’s normal that the personnel
decisions are done to try to create stability.
So, more time, they will found a small group to spoil
the position by different sects.
Hu Ping: “What the CCP is worried about are
splits developing within the core CCP leadership.
So they focus more on consistency
within the Party Central committee.
Recently, Wang Qishan has also mentioned that it
absolutely forbidden to voice a different view from the CCP.”
Hu Ping thinks that according to this requirement,
Newly appointed officials must have a good relationships
with their leaders, and abide with the leaders’ orders.
So, later on, the political decisions may be little different
from the era of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
Maintaining stability is placed as top priority.
Before the “Two Sessions”, some civil
rights activists have been suppressed.
Mo Zhixu is now in Sichuan Province, and he was warned
not to go back to Beijing until the Two Sessions have ended.
When Hu Jia went to his parents home
during the Lantern festival, security staff followed him to his parents home.
Beijing attorney Ding Jiaxi will be accompanied
by police until the Two Sessions end.
Civil rights activist Xu Zhiyong, who has been detained
at home, has now been taken from home in Beijing.
Chen Yunfei, a civil rights activist in
Chengdu, has also been monitored.
So, we can say that the “Constitutional Dream"
Xi Jinping declared before are deceptive words.
