【新唐人2013年03月01日訊】中共全國人大常委會27號公布了十二屆全國人大代表名單，確認2,987名代表資格有效。中共喉舌《新華社》報導，代表中黨政官員比例明顯降低、基層人員明顯增加。分析認為，這一次人代會的看點，應該是高層人士的分佈，而不在於誰當代表。因為符合共產黨的意志，按著共產黨的方式去進行表決，誰當代表都一樣。
《中央社》引述消息人士的話說，除非最後一刻出現變化，否則現年59歲的前駐日大使王毅，可能獲派出任外長。王毅曾在2004至2007年被派駐日本。
而按照慣例，國務院內閣部長正職不會當選全國人大代表。不過，在現任的內閣成員中，外交部長 楊潔篪、監察部長馬笩、財政部長謝旭人、鐵道部長盛光祖、衛生部長陳竺都被選為十二屆全國人大代表。分析指出，這預示著他們的職務可能會出現變化。
至於7名政治局常委中，習近平在上海團、李克強在山東團、張德江在家鄉吉林團、俞正聲在湖北團、劉雲山在內蒙團、王岐山在北京團、張高麗在天津團。這些地方，有些是他們的故鄉，或者是他們工作過的地方。不過，李克強與山東似乎沒有甚麼關聯，而未能進入政治局常委的政治局委員汪洋則轉到故鄉安徽團。
香港《大公網》分析，從以往的做法來看，如果一省代表團之中，沒有任何一位現任的黨和國家領導人，則在兩會的選舉中，代表團裡將有人當選新一屆的國家領導人。
據報導，在2,987名代表名單中，黨政官員的比例名義上降至約35%。報導分析，有不少官員是改戴知識份子的帽子，所謂基層代表更是指定的工人、農民。中共禁止獨立人士參選代表，民主大門依舊是關閉的。
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤認為，中共這次的人代會看點，還是在高層的人事分佈上，至於甚麼階層的人佔多少比例，王軍濤覺得沒有甚麼意義。
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤：「因為共產黨它不管在哪個階層選代表，他都是披著這個階層的外衣，但是心是共產黨的心，它選代表選忠於它的，聽它話的。按共產黨意志投票的話，沒有甚麼用。」
不過，王軍濤表示，中共高層人事的分佈，可能會有些變化。
王軍濤：「在去年發生了王立軍出走美國領館，那麼，導致了整個的十八大的人事上，江澤民又藉著令計劃的兒子這個事情大作文章，和薄熙來的倒臺，十八大人事大翻盤，推翻了原來十七大的人事安排。」
自1998年起，國務院領導班子固定為「一正四副五委員」的十人組合。十二屆全國人大代表名單的出爐，也牽動國務院十人組合。據了解，排名第一的常務副總理由政治局常委擔任，副總理都是政治局委員。國務委員的黨內職務則並不固定，有的是政治局委員、書記處書記，有的則僅是中央委員，但是，都是中共國家領導人。
王軍濤指出，過去共產黨有個特點，總理和常務副總理基本上分屬兩個派系。
王軍濤：「這一次如果李克強做總理，假如汪洋做常務副總理，當然他們就算一派的，如果不是，那就分屬兩派。也很可能是張高麗， 因為張高麗是常委，一般說，總理和常務副總理都是常委，如果按照七個人來說，只有李克強一個人是團派，當然，其他幾個人，不管誰來做副常務總理都是江的人。」
值得一提的是，這次代表名單還有另外一個看點，那就是，解放軍代表大幅超編。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉
Analysis: A New CCP Representatives List
On February 27, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Standing
Committee of the National People’s Congress announced
the list of the representatives of the 12 session of the NPC,
confirming 2,987 people’s qualifications to be valid.
CCP mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency reported that, officials
in the party and government became significantly lower.
Grassroots officials significantly increased. The analysts
believe that the focus on NPC should be the distribution of
top echelon places, rather than who is representative.
If the vote is in line with the will of the CCP according to
the way of the CCP, it does not matter who is the representative.
The list of representatives of the 12th session of the NPC is
considered an important indicator of the official personnel layout.
Central News Agency quoted sources as saying that unless
there are last-minute changes, Wang Yi, 59-year-old
former ambassador to Japan may be assigned as
foreign minister.
Wang Yi had been stationed in Japan in 2004-2007.
By convention, the Cabinet of Ministers and chiefs of the
state council will not be elected representatives of the NPC
However, current members, Foreign minister Yang Jiechi,
Supervision Minister Ma Bo, Minister of Finance Xie Xuren,
Minister of Railways Sheng Guangzu, Health Minister
Chen Zhu were selected as the representatives of the 12th session of the NPC.
The analysis pointed out it indicates that
their duties may change.
As for the seven Politburo Standing Committee members,
Xi Jinping is in the Shanghai group,
Li Keqiang in the Shandong group,
Zhang Dejiang in the Jilin group,
Yu Zhengsheng in the Hubei group,
Liu Yunshan in the Inner Mongolia group,
Wang Qishan in the Beijing group,
Zhang Gaoli in Tianjin group. Some of
these places are their hometown, or where they had worked.
However, Li Keqiang seems not to be related to
Shandong.
Wang Yang failed to become a member, membership
of the Political Bureau Standing Committee went to his hometown Anhui group.
Takungpao analysis from past practice,
if in a provincial delegation,
there is no current leader of the CCP or the nation,
during the two sessions elections,
someone will be elected as the new national leader.
It is reported that, in the list of 2,987 delegates, the proportion
of party and government officials dropped to 35% nominally.
It was analyzed, many officials changed to intellectuals,
the so-called grassroots representatives are specified workers and peasants.
The CCP prohibits independent candidates to run in an
election, therefore there is no democratic process.
For Dr. Wang Juntao of Columbia University
political science, the focus of this session is the distribution of high-level personnel,as to what class of people are what percentage,
there is no connection.
Dr. Wang Juntao: “No matter in which class the CCP elected
the representatives, they just dressed in the cloak of that class,
but the heart is that of the CCP.
The CCP choses loyal representatives who will listen to it.
If they vote according to the will of the CCP, the vote is meaningless."
However, Wang Juntao said, some changes may happen in
the distribution of high-level personnel of the CCP.
Wang Juntao: “Last year Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. consulate,
which led to the personnel change of the entire 18th NPC,
focusing on the issue of Jiang Zemin, Ling Jihua’s son,
Bo Xilai’s downfall etc.,
the personnel of the 18th NPC completely changed, overturned
the original personnel arrangements during the 17th NPC.”
Since 1998, the leading group of the State Council had been
fixed at ten people, including one chief, four deputy chiefs and five committee members.
The new list of the 12th session of the NPC also affects the
State Council’s ten person group.
It is learned that the Deputy Prime Minister is served by
the Standing Committee member of the Political Bureau,
the Deputy Prime Minister is a Politburo member.
State Councilor’s party duties are not fixed,
some are Politburo members, secretaries of the Secretariat,
some are just members of the Central Committee.
But all are the leaders of the CCP.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
Wang Juntao pointed out that in the past, the CCP had
the characteristics of the Prime Minister and the
Deputy Prime Minister basically belonging to two factions.
Wang Juntao: “If Li Keqiang becomes Prime Minister,
Wang Yang as the Deputy Prime Minister, they are in the same group.
If not, the two positions will belong to two groups.
It is highly possible it will be Zhang Gaoli,
because he is a member of the Standing Committee.
In general, the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister
are members of the Standing Committee.
If counted as seven people, only Li Keqiang
is in the Youth Communist group.
Others, no matter who will become Deputy Prime
Minister, they are all in Jiang’s group.”
It is worth mentioning that in this list of representatives,
the People’s Liberation Army representatives are significantly overstaffed.
