【新唐人2013年02月14日訊】按中國舊曆，龍年過後是蛇年，不過，有分析指出，中共在告別了「多災多難」的2012年同時，又迎來了「危機四伏」的蛇年。中共當前面臨著方方面面的危機，而且，更糟糕的是，它們被同時激發集中到了2013年。
人們近來在熱烈議論中共2013年將會爆發的多個危機，而這些危機都直接威脅到中共政權的存亡。那麼，到底中共面臨著哪些危機呢？
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士、時政評論家李天笑表示，首先，中共將面臨「亡黨的危機」。
時政評論家李天笑：「亡黨危機是一個漸進的過程，比方說，從2004年開始中共的黨內退黨，包括退出黨內的一些附屬組織，『三退』的運動，就像一個洪水一樣，現在已經超過一億人了，這個比例實際上已經高於蘇聯在崩潰、蘇共解體的時候。」
李天笑還表示，中共歷史上的政治運動中，到底迫害了哪些人﹖未來，包括「文革」、「六四」等兇手，都會被進一步追查到底。此外，中共將面臨「清算體制的危機」。
李天笑：「比方說從習近平提出來的停止勞教。接下來的問題，勞教所關的又是誰，很大一部分就是法輪功學員，那麼，為甚麼這些清白的、無辜的這些人，為甚麼就這麼抓進去了呢﹖誰指使抓他們的，這個背後的因素是甚麼，很快就會指向江澤民，那江澤民是利用共產黨的權力，來進行迫害和鎮壓的，最後就查到中共製度性的問題。」
時事評論員林子旭認為，中共面臨的最大危機是「人心的危機」。
時事評論員林子旭：「從中共黨內來講，大家看到了中共的這些官員，正在瘋狂的向國外轉移資產，中共黨內的大多數人已經對中共徹底失去信心了 ，從黨外來看，中國的民眾現在是越來越清醒了，老百姓內心對自由的渴望，被前所未有的激發出來了，在這種民眾唾棄中共的大環境下，民眾正在快速的從對中共的恐懼中擺脫出來。」
此外，北韓無視國際社會的多次警告，於2月12號進行了第三次核子試爆，與此同時，北韓的傳統盟友——中共，同時被國際社會聚焦。
林子旭：「放眼全球，面對中共不斷弱化的狀態，很多西方政府已經開始考慮中共垮臺以後的事情了，因為領土爭端問題，中共也把周邊國家基本都得罪光 了，中共的那些小兄弟們，一個接一個的開始向民主制度過渡，就連小小的北韓，都開始敢於和中共叫板私自搞核試驗了。」
中國大陸同樣遭遇北韓核爆的安全威脅。中共外交部發表了譴責聲明。分析指出，北韓問題考驗著中共新任領導人習近平的政治智商。
不過，大陸經濟學家芧于軾認為，目前中國大陸最嚴重的還不是政治問題，而是經濟問題。
大陸經濟學家芧于軾：「中國比較大的危機有兩方面，一個是房地產泡沫，還有一個是銀行的壞賬，這是很直接的危機，兩個問題立刻可能爆發。」
而北京在一個月內爆發四次霧霾天氣。李天笑指出，中國日益尖銳的環境問題，也不容忽視。
李天笑：「再加上有沙塵暴，還有莫名其妙的地陷等等，都是中共長期追求經濟造成的。而不顧人民的生存環境，破坏繼續延伸的話，很可能造成民眾的一些反抗，這個反抗會和其他的危機，結合起來造成一個綜合性的危機。」
林子旭認為，目前中共處在一種前所未有的危機之中，儘管現在習近平採取了一些措施，但是，每一個危機都是一張多米諾骨牌，其中任何一張倒下了，都會讓中共瞬間土崩瓦解。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/君卓
Analysts: The CCP Faces a few Crises in 2013
According to the Chinese lunar calendar,
after the year of the dragon, 2013 is year of the snake.
Analysts said that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
had been through a year of “troubles” in 2012.
Now the CCP is facing a “perilous” year of the snake.
The CCP is currently encountering crises in all aspects.
In addition, the crises will all come together in 2013.
Recently, people talked about crises that
the CCP will encounter in 2013.
These crises directly threaten the CCP’s survival.
So, what crises are indeed the CCP facing?
Li Tianxiao, PhD in political science in Columbia University,
Current Affairs Commentator said that first of all, the CCP will face the crisis of collapse.
Li Tianxiao: “The CCP’s collapse will be a gradual process.
For example, the event of “quit the CCP” including its
affiliated organizations began in 2004.
The event of “quit the CCP” is like a flood, now more than
100 million people had denounced the CCP.
This speed and ratio is much higher than
the Soviet Unions’ collapse.”
Li said, in the CCP’s history of persecution during the
political movement, who had been persecuted?
In the future, murderers who were involved in the
cultural revolution and democracy protest in 1989,
will be investigated until being sentenced and punished.
In addition, the CCP’s system will face
the crisis of being removed.
Li Tianxiao: “For example, Xi Jinping vowed for the
removal of labor camps.
The next question is, who are being held in labor camps?
The majority are Falun Gong practitioners.
Why are these innocent people sent to labor camps?
Who had granted these orders, what purposes are behind it?
Soon, Jiang Zemin will be pushed forward. Jiang used the
CCP’s power to carry out persecution and suppression.
In the end, it will trace back to the CCP’s system that
had caused problems.”
Lin Zixu, the Current Affairs Commentator believes that the
biggest crisis for the CCP are its members “losing confidence”.
Lin Zixu: “Inside the CCP, we can see that these officials
are madly transferring assets to abroad.
Most members have completely lost confidence in the CCP.
Outside of the CCP, Chinese people are awakening.
The desires for freedom have reached unprecedented levels.
Under the circumstances of abandoning the CCP,
the public are rapidly losing fear of the CCP.”
Moreover, despite repeated warnings from international
societies, North Korea had commenced its third nuclear test on 12th Feb.
Meanwhile, the CCP, a North Korean traditional ally,
is being focused on by the international communities.
Lin Zixu: “Looking at the world,
the CCP are constantly being weakened,
many western governments have begun to consider
preparations for the CCP collapsing.
Because of the territorial disputes,
the CCP had upset all its neighboring countries.
The CCP’s brotherhood countries are transiting
to democracy one by one.
Now even the North Korea dare to challenge the CCP
carrying out its nuclear test.”
Mainland China suffered the same threat of
North Korea’s nuclear test.
The CCP’s foreign ministry issued a condemning statement.
Analysts pointed out that the North Korean nuclear issue was
a test towards Xi Jinping’s political intelligence quotient (IQ).
The economist Mao Yushi believes, the most severe problems in
China are the economic problems but not the political issues.
Mao Yushi: “There are two major crises in China.
One is the housing bubble.
The other are the banks’ bad debt.
The later is a direct crisis.
These two crises could break any minute now.”
In Beijing within one month, there were
four instances of smoggy weather.
Li Tianxiao said that the increasing environmental pollution
in China also can’t be ignored.
Li Tianxiao: “Additionally, sandstorms and ground subsidence
are being caused by the CCP’s long-term economic pursuit.
If the CCP carries on ignoring the people’s living environment
it is likely to cause the people unrest.
This unrest combined with other crises will turn into
a comprehensive crisis.”
Lin Zixu said, now the CCP is in an unprecedented crisis,
although Xi Jinping has taken some measures,
however, each crisis is like a domino, with any one falling
will cause the immediate collapse of the CCP.
