【新唐人2013年01月28日訊】因釣魚島爭端而緊張升級的中日關係，在1月25號，中共新領導人習近平接見日本公明黨主席山口那津男後，是否有突破性的進展？專家分析，雖然中日雙方都許諾積極促進首腦會議，討論緩解釣魚島危機，但習近平的談話並沒有實質內容，而安培的親筆信也只是禮節性示好，中日在釣魚島上對峙還有很長的路要走。
山口在會面時向習近平轉交了日本首相安倍的親筆信。習近平表示，釣魚島問題要妥善管控。安倍26號對於習近平將「認真研究」的日中首腦會談，積極回應說：「希望打開對話的大門。」
今年1月以來，中日在釣魚島的軍事對峙，使得雙方緊張局勢一觸即發，引起美國等國際社會的高度關注。前大陸史學教授劉因全分析認為，中日雙方都希望通過這次會面能稍微緩和一下高層的政治關係。
前大陸史學教授劉因全﹕「習近平在黨內的地位基本確立了，在這種情況下，他不希望在釣魚島上擦槍走火，發生意想不到的後果，所以我相信習近平有緩和的意圖。美國也不希望日本跟中國之間因為釣魚島問題打起來，這樣也不符合美國的利益，在這種情況下，山口這次訪華，給安培和習近平都有一個臺階，讓雙方向緩和方向發展。」
1月26號，日本公明黨關聯的「創價學會」名譽會長池田大作，呼籲中日首腦定期會談制度，並建議針對中國最近多個城市陷入霧霾的空氣污染現狀，創設中日兩國「東亞環境協力機構」等。「英國廣播電臺BBC」分析，這是中日會談後，公明黨迅速制定具體計劃的第一波。
獨立評論員張健：「如果中國一旦接受日本對中國的環境治理的話，那就是把中共所有從上到下的官員，包括環保局，統統全部打了一個最響亮的耳光，而且中國人會看到，最終中國人民呼吸的空氣，中國人民飲的水，還得是讓小日本來幫我們完成，這不是天下最滑稽的事情﹖我相信如果中共答應了日本這樣做的話，中國的民間可能會反彈更加激烈。」
據有關消息透露，安倍的親筆信裡，主要是對習近平的禮節性問候，並無任何有關釣魚島的實質性內容或建議。而習近平在會見山口時，也只是官話強調「中方在釣魚島問題上的立場是一貫和明確的。」
國際權威媒體《外交政策》雜誌曾刊文披露，近些年中共政府在領土爭端中並沒有寸土必爭。中共最大的賣國賊——江澤民早在1999年與俄羅斯簽定的《中俄邊界條約》，將總面積超過300多萬平方公里土地，約相當於100個台灣，正式劃歸俄羅斯。
中共對釣魚島的立場，獨立評論員張健提出質疑。
張健：「我不認為這對緩解釣魚島的緊張局勢有任何的幫助，因為釣魚島也是一個喪權辱國的條約，因為是在中共的手中釣魚島被送出去了，同樣在中共手中大片的山河也送出去了，他為甚麼不對日本索要。在江澤民手中籤了這麼多喪權辱國的條約怎麼辦？能不能拿回來？」
張健認為，釣魚島的領土歸屬並不是中共實際想要解決的問題，只是被中共拿來作為釋放內政壓力的一個出氣筒。
張健：「當初你（中共）已經定了釣魚島是人家的，現在你去拿，是非常非常困難的一件事，中共現在根本就不想去做，不想去解決這個問題。中共在過去的釣魚島問題上，在喪權辱國的條約上，到他（習近平）這一代政府繼續為它（中共）買單，責無旁貸，他只是盡他買單的義務而已。」
日本《每日新聞》對這次的中日會見評價，說：「圍繞尖閣諸島（中國稱為釣魚島）主權，雙方隔閡仍大，加上中國警惕安倍的右傾路線，看不到實現首腦會談的出路」。
1月25號，日本政府召開內閣會議，正式決定修改現行的《防衛計劃大綱》，重點加強對釣魚島所處西南海域的防衛和監視。而在中國的一家造船廠，第一艘計劃用於常駐釣魚臺海域的萬噸級大型漁政執法船，日前開工建造。
外界認為，雙方目前都在為釣魚島持久對峙作準備。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/許旻 後製/周天
Diaoyu Islands: Long-Term Confrontation Expected
Sino-Japanese relations have intensified with
escalation over the Diaoyu(Senkaku) Islands dispute.
Xin Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)´s
new leader, recently met with Natsuo Yamaguchi,
President of Japan´s New Komeito Party (NKP).
Will a breakthrough be made after this meeting?
Experts remark that although both sides promised
to promote the summit talks to ease tensions over
the land crisis, Xi Jinping´s talks lacks substance.
Experts also think the personal letters from Japan´s
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe´s are merely ceremonial
Long-term confrontation is expected to occur over
the Diaoyu Islands, according to commentators.
In the meeting, Natsuo Yamaguchi passed on to Xi Jinping
a personal letter from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Xi said that the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands
issue shall be handled prudently.
He will “seriously consider" holding a summit with Abe.
Yamaguchi responded positively, in that,
“we expect to open the door to dialogue.”
A Sino-Japanese military confrontation
over the Diaoyu Islands still continues.
There is high international concern over the ongoing tension
Liu Yinquan, a former history professor in China, comments.
Liu thinks that through this meeting, both sides aim to
slightly ease tension between top-level political relations.
Liu Yinquan: “Xi Jinping has placed his feet inside the Party.
He doesn´t want to see escalation on the Diaoyu dispute,
and any unexpected consequences being triggered.
I speculate that Xi Jinping has intentions of easing friction.
The U.S. also doesn´t want to see a
China-Japan war, which isn´t in its interest.
Under this circumstance, Yamaguchi´s visit
to China offered a way out for both sides. This helps ease the situation.”
On January 26, Daisaku Ikeda, President of Soka Gakkai
International, a closely associated organization with
the NKP, called for regular China-Japan summit talks.
He proposed to set up a Sino-Japan coordination
agency to deal with environmental issues.
This includes China´s wide scale air pollution.
The BBC reported that this is the NKP´s first
action plan after the recent China-Japan meeting.
Zhang Jian, independent critic: “Once China accepts Japan´s
environmental proposal, that´d be a slap in the CCP´s face.
That is, China will only eventually achieve acceptable
levels of air and drinking water quality with Japan´s help.
Isn´t it the funniest thing in the world?
I believe if the CCP accepts this proposal, there´ll
be more sharp backlash from ordinary folks in China.”
Reportedly, Prime Minister Abe just
presented a courtesy greeting to Xi Jinping.
The letter didn´t involve any substantive
content or suggestions on the Diaoyu dispute.
When meeting with Yamaguchi, Xi Jinping just
stated that “China’s position on the Diaoyu
Islands issue has been consistent and clear."
Foreign Policy magazine reported that
Chinese leaders have conceded territory.
“Or at least [they have] given up long-asserted
territorial claims rather liberally in recent years to
settle frontier disputes with neighboring countries.”
“With the Soviet Union and then the Russian
Federation, successive negotiations were also
concluded successfully on a roughly 50/50 basis.”
Zhang Jian questions what position
the CCP holds on the Diaoyu dispute.
Zhang Jian: “I don´t think this can help
ease tensions over the Diaoyu dispute.
The Diaoyu Islands was given
away by the CCP regime.
What´s more, it has ceded some other large-scale territories.
What´s to be done about those humiliating treaties
that Jiang Zemin signed. Are we able to annul them?”
Zhang Jian analyzes that the CCP never aims
to solve the claims over the Diaoyu Islands.
Rather, it uses the issue to serve as
a vent to the pressures of internal affairs.
Zhang Jian: “In the past, the CCP agreed with
Japan´s sovereignty claim over the Diaoyu Islands.
Now it attempts to take it back, that´s nearly impossible.
The CCP doesn´t actually want
to solve this problem at the moment.
From the past until now, the regime has continuously
paid the price for the issues of the Diaoyu Islands
and of those humiliating treaties it has signed.
So under Xi Jinping administration, it´s still an
inescapable duty for the regime to pay for this.”
Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun newspaper commented
on the recent China-Japan meeting.
It said, “on sovereignty claims of the Senkaku
Islands (the Diaoyu Islands in Chinese),
a large gap still exists in both sides.
China is vigilant against Abe´s rightists approach,
and the conclusion of the summit is still unclear.”
On January 25, the Japan´s cabinet meeting decided to
modify the existing National Defense Program Outline.
It will focus on strengthening the defense and surveillance
of the southwestern waters of the Diaoyu Islands.
Meanwhile, China has recently started constructing
the first law enforcement vessel, which will be
deployed permanently for the Diaoyu islands waters.
Observers said that both sides are preparing to stage
a lasting confrontation over the Diaoyu Islands dispute.
