【新唐人2013年01月19日訊】管理諮詢公司「麥肯錫（McKinsey）」駐上海亞洲地區董事長歐高敦（Gordon Orr），對2013年中國的10種預測中，包括「豬肉或雞肉的價格會翻一番」、「一個三線城市將宣佈破產」、「中資銀行不良貸款可能激增」等。不過學者認為，中國實際情況要比預測還要嚴重。請看報導。
1月17號，美國《華爾街日報》發表《2013年的中國：麥肯錫高管的10種預測》一文。
上海亞洲地區董事長歐高敦的第一項預測就是：抗議活動將升溫，並取得更多成功。歐高敦說，受到近年來一些抗議活動成功的鼓勵，加上頗具影響的社交媒體的作用，人們現在開始願意「大聲」抗議。
經濟學家簡天倫：「實際上在過去十幾年來，每一年抗爭活動都在增加：不管是維權還是抗拆遷、還是信仰、還是經濟問題，貧富不均各方面，各種各樣的社會矛盾在不斷激化。從經濟方面來講，兩極經濟分化，收入分化特別嚴重，每一年都在加劇分化。」
經濟學家簡天倫還表示，多年來，中國絕大多數民眾的收入與經濟發展不成比例，社會分配極為不公，抗議增加是必然的。像最近的《南方週末》事件，表明民眾自我維權意識在覺醒。
歐高敦還預測，有一個三線城市將破產。
時事評論員藍述：「剛剛開完不久的中央經濟工作會議上，地方政府要中央買單大約超過4萬億的財政赤字。超過4萬億的地方政府財政赤字，說明90%的地方政府實際上已經處在一個破產的狀態，在這種情況之下，一旦是中央不給地方買單，那麼很多的三線城市就有可能破產。」
藍述認為，中共不是搞市場經濟，它投資的目地不是為了長期發展，只是為了維持中共統治的合法性所需要的GDP，所以很多政府盲目的投資。但三線城市破產對中國的衝擊是巨大的，對整個社會的衝擊遠超過希臘效應。
簡天倫則指出，中共還像目前這樣靠投資推動經濟增長，不增加投資品質，不僅會對環境、生態平衡造成破壞，而且還會對整個國家經濟發展和人民生活水準帶來非常不好的影響。
另外，歐高敦還預測，2013年中國的銀行不良貸款可能會激增﹔基礎設施支出還會大幅度增加﹔肉或雞肉的價格會翻一番等。
美國「普林斯頓大學」社會學博士程曉農認為，中國銀行問題比歐高敦說的嚴重得多。
旅美中國經濟社會學者程曉農：「這就是中國今天的現實：地方政府必須蓋房子，不然就沒有收入。所以為了有收入，就得蓋，而且還得一年一年蓋下去。 因為地方政府搞城鎮化，蓋新房的錢就是從銀行拿來的，那錢是還不了的。所以，銀行的風險自然就加大了。」
程曉農指出，現在中共政府要搞全國城鎮化，這需要60萬億投資，但是，這些錢根本籌不到。這是因為，老百姓在銀行的錢都被借給企業去蓋房子了，銀行自己的錢被借出去搞房地產已經成了壞賬。現在中國還要蓋房子，那只有一條路——通貨膨脹。
程曉農表示，中國老百姓會承受通貨膨脹的連鎖反應，活不下去還得賴活著、忍受著。
旅日獨立學者羅天昊日前也撰文指出，目前很多城市高昂的生活成本、惡劣的生存環境，已經使它對農村人口的吸引力大大降低。城市化出現了逆轉的跡象，今天已經逐步出現的部分「黑燈城市」，未來將在中國蔓延，「空城」遍地，方纔是中國未來的真實寫照。
未來還會出現多少像鄂爾多斯、鐵嶺新城那樣的「死城」，我們還不得而知。
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/周天
A Very Bleak Outlook for China in 2013
Gordon Orr, chairman of McKinsey consulting firm
in Shaighai, made ten predictions about China in 2013.
Among them, the price of pork or chicken will double.
A third tier city will declare bankruptcy, and
the non-performing loans of Chinese banks may surge.
However, scholars believe that China’s actual situation
is worse than the predictions. Let’s read the report.
On January 17th the Wall Street Journal published the article
“China’s 2013: McKinsey executives 10 predictions”.
Chairman Gordon Orr’s first prediction is that protests
will heat up, and become more successful.
In recent years, protesting activities have been encouraged by
their rate of success, plus the role of influential social media.
People are now more willing to “loudly" protest.
Economist Jian Tianlun: “In fact, in the past ten years,
protests have been on the rise.
They are either for human rights, anti-demolition,
belief, or economic issues.
The disparity between the rich and the poor and
the variety of social conflicts continue to intensify.
From the economic point of view, income disparity is
particularly serious and continues to intensify each year."
Jian Tianlun said, over the years, it is disproportionate to the
revenue and economic development of most Chinese people.
It is extremely unfair social distribution.
Thus, the increase of protests is inevitable.
The recent “Southern Weekly" incident showed that
people were awakening to human rights.
McKinsey’s report also said that
third-tier cities will go bankrupt.
Lan Shu: “The recent Central Economic Work
Conference showed that local governments were asking more than 4 trillion yuan.
That means over 90% of local governments
are in a state of bankruptcy.
If the Central Government denies their requests,
more cities will go bankrupt.”
Lan Shu believes that the Chinese regime
is not interested in market economy.
Its purpose of investment is not for long-term development
but the need to maintain GDP for its legitimacy to rule.
Therefore, many local governments have invested blindly.
Bankruptcy of third-tier cities will greatly impact China,
and its effect will be far greater than that of Greece.
Jian Tianlun pointed out that the Chinese regime currently
relies on investment to promote economic growth.
If the quality of investment does not improve, it will cause
not only environmental damage and ecological imbalance,
but also have a very negative impact on the entire country’s
economic development and people’s standard of living.
In 2013, bad bank loans may surge,
a significant increase in infrastructure spending.
Price increases for meat or chicken
are all part of predictions.
Economic sociologist, Dr. Cheng Xiaonong, believes that
China’s banking issue is far more serious than predicted.
Cheng Xiaonong: “This is the reality of China today.
Local governments must build houses; otherwise, they have
no revenue. Thus, they have to build houses year after year.
Local governments push urbanization,
so they borrow money from banks.
However, they cannot repay those loans,
so the risk for banks naturally increases.”
Cheng Xiaonong pointed out that
the Chinese regime wants nation-wide urbanization.
That takes 60 trillion of investment. However,
money in banks has been borrowed to build houses.
The Banks’ own money thus turns into bad debt
from real estate, but more houses need to be built.
Now China has only one way to go and that is inflation.
Cheng Xiaonong said the Chinese people will bear the
burden of inflation even though they can no longer survive.
A visiting scholar in Japan, Luo Tianhao
pointed out that these days,
the high cost of city living and harsh environment
can no longer attract villagers.
Urbanization is going a reverse direction.
Many cities are gradually turning dark.
This scenario will spread to the rest of China.
The “Ghost town" will be all over China,
and that will be a true portrayal of China’s future.
We don’t know for sure how many more “ghost towns”
like Ordos or Tieling City will appear in the future.
