【新唐人2013年01月05日訊】新年前夕，中共新領導人習近平主持政治局集體學習，研究部署2013年黨風廉政建設和反腐工作。然而政治分析家裴敏欣3號在《中國密報》發表評論，他認為，中共就像《泰坦尼克號》一樣無法逃過沉沒的命運。他的論點是，從歷史來看，沒有一個獨裁政權不會倒臺，中共也不例外。
現在畫面看到的是大家熟悉的電影《泰坦尼克號》，當船瀋下去的時候，乘客驚慌與絕望的表情，令人印象深刻。
最近《明鏡網》編譯《中國密報》一篇文章，標題是「中共這條大船無法逃過沉沒命運」，文章內容提到，中共十八大是一場精心策劃的盛會，領導人試圖在一連串政治風暴下進行權力轉移。政治分析家裴敏欣將十八大比喻成《泰坦尼克號》上的最後宴會，儘管光彩奪目，卻無法逃過沉沒命運，共產黨統治的盡頭已接近了。
文章作者比喻，2012年的中共政局如果是一場球賽，那麼最有價值的球員就是薄熙來，如果少了這位最佳男主角，外界將不會看到中共如此風起雲湧又驚滔駭浪的一年。
時政評論員汪北稷：「現在是2013年，它的滅亡甚麼時候開始的，其實是從2012年2月6日王立軍和薄熙來鬧翻，去美國領事館開始的。中國民眾的覺醒已經上升到了一個很高的程度，利用手機短信、利用微信、微博以及一些網路平臺，人民已經不能像30年前、40年前被封閉起來，完全簡單的洗腦。」
這篇文章還指出，中國是個很特別的國家，像是掛羊頭賣狗肉，打著社會主義的名號卻做資本主義的事。
美國中國社會民主黨中央委員會主持人劉因全：「他這些觀點都是有道理的，因為獨裁的政治體制，他的領導人的產生是存在很大的問題，不是經過民選的，他是一個在暗箱操作的情況下產生的，他就沒有民意基礎，他就很難得到人民的擁護，在這種情況下他們很難長久，也就是說中共如果不進行體制改革的話，不進行大刀闊斧的改革的話，只是做一些修修補補，是很難持久的。」
文章還強調自我毀滅的動力，讓獨裁政權垮臺的理論。但也有些專家質疑，中共真的有可能一夕崩潰嗎？崩潰後的中國人民何去何從？
原大陸歷史學教授現任美國的中國社會民主黨中央委員會主持人劉因全表示，翻開歷史來看，每一次的改朝換代，民生社會照常運作，人民照常生活，不會洪水滔天的。
劉因全：「中共倒臺以後，中國不會社會失控，不會混亂的，因為無論哪一股政治勢力掌握了政權以後，他們都會很有自己的方法來維持社會的穩定，不會造成混亂，如果中國實行了兩黨制以後，兩個黨互相監督，中國只會更好。」
中國問題研究專家趙遠明：「一個民族、一個國家，不是非要靠某一個人的統治才能夠強大的，你看中國五千年文化，多少歷朝歷代，換來換去，歷朝歷代，皇帝都是換了多少次，朝代換了多少次，這個中華民族依然存在，而且歷史依然發展。」
曾經擔任公安大學法律系講師的趙遠明還表示，中國腐敗的制度，產生了一群腐敗的官員，加上獨裁統治，沒有監督機制，因此，在中國形成了一個龐大的利益集團。
文章也指出，中共領導人的能力越來越弱，加上執政時間一長，政府變得越來越官僚，都催化了自我毀滅的進程。
採訪/李韻 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬
Secret Chinese Report: CCP Cannot Escape it’s Fate
Anchor:
Just before the New Year, Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist
Party’s new leader organized a collective learning in the Politburo.
At this meeting he arranged the tasks of building a clean
government and anti-corruption measures in 2013.
However Pei Minxin, a political analyst published
a commentary on Jan. 3 in his “Chinese Secret Report.”
In this report he said the CCP is like the Titanic
which can’t escape it’s fate, which is to sink.
His opinion is there’s no dictatorship in history that
didn’t fall down . The CCP can’t be an exception.
Reporter:
Many of you should be very familiar with this film “Titanic”.
When the passenger liner was sinking, all the passengers
were scared and desperate. It’s very impressive.
Recently the Mirror Network translated and edited
an article of the “ Chinese Secret Report titled “The Big Ship CCP Can’t Escape it’s Fate of Sinking”.
In the artcle, it said that CCP’s 18th Congress is
a well-planned event.
CCP leaders had tried to transfer power
during serious political turmoil.
Political Analyst Pei Minxin described the 18th Congress as
the last banquet on the Titanic.
It even it looks brilliant, but it can’t escape it’s
fated sinking .
The CCP’s control is close to the end.
The article said, if the CCP’s political situation in 2012 was a
football game, then Bo Xilai was “the most valuable player”.
With this best actor absent, the outside world isn’t able to
see clearly the turbulence suffered this last year by the CCP.
Wang Beiji, a political commentator, “Now is 2013.
But actually, the CCP’s ending started from February 6, 2012.
Which was when Wang Lijun separated from Bo Xilai and
went to the U.S. consulate.
The awakening of the Chinese people
has been increased.
They can now use SMS, Micro-message, Micro-blog and
other internet platforms to share information.
They are different from the people of thirty or forty years ago,
when they were isolated and were completely brainwashed.
The article also pointed out that China is a very special country,
such as “hanging trickery", which means CCP calls itself “socialist”, but behaves as “capitalist”.
Liu Yinquan, chairman of the Central Committee of China’s
Social Democratic Party: “His views are reasonable.
because in a dictatorship, a leader’s changing
is a big issue.
It’s not voted by the people, it is generated by
a black-box operation.
The leader doesn’t have people’s support.
It’s hard for him to have it.
Under this kind of situation, the dictatorship can’t
last for a long time, which means that
if the CCP doesn’t change doesn’t completely
reform it can’t last much longer.”
The article also emphasized the theory of the power of
“self-destruction” destroying the dictatorship.
But some experts have doubted
That the CCP will collapse in one night?
How can the Chinese people handle it if
the CCP collapses?
Liu Yinquan said that looking at history’s examples,
civil society can maintain it’s normal operation during each dynasty’s changing, and will not have a mass of problems.
Liu Yinquan: “After the CCP falls down, China ‘s society
can’t lose control, can’t be in a chaos.
Because no matter who takes power, they will have
their solution for maintaining the society’s stability.
It will not be in a mess. If China has a two party system,
the two parties will mutually supervise.
China will get better and better.”
Zhao Yuanming, a China issue expert: “A nation or
a country’s strength doesn’t only depend upon an individual’s ruling.
You can see in the 5,000 years of Chinese culture,
there were so many dynasties that changed one by one.
So many emperors changed one by one.
The Chinese nation is still exists and history is still developing
no matter how many emperors or dynasties have changed.
Zhao Yuanming was a teacher of the Faculty of Law
at the Public Security University.
He said that China’s corrupt system had
created a group of corrupt officials.
A dictatorship without any form of supervision of it’s
own mechanism, China has a huge interest group.
The article also said that the capability of the CCP ‘s
leaders has become weaker and weaker.
When the time of rule is longer and longer , the regime
becomes more and more bureaucratic.
All of this helps to speed up
the process of self-destruction.
