【新唐人2012年11月17日訊】十八大召開後，政治局常委由9人改為7人，胡錦濤不再留任中央軍委主席，顯示「習李」在內部權力妥協下全面接班。不過，外界一直盛傳﹕習、李兩人是「太子黨」與「團派」的代表，尤其李克強，被傳是胡錦濤最鍾意的接班人，最終卻由習近平竄出。兩人未來能否合作，擺脫外界揣測的派系鬥爭陰影？超越胡溫體制，有待觀察。而德語媒體指出，由於制度使然，習近平恐怕將難有作為。另有分析指出，無論對中共政權哪個人、哪種勢力來說，貪污腐敗、貧富懸殊、言論自由的難題不解決，中共政權面臨的壓力都會上升。
被外界稱為「政敵團隊」的中共新領導班子，有路線、派系之爭，還夾雜更多的恩怨情仇和利益糾葛。7名常委中，除了習近平和李克強兩人外，其餘5人都是40後的六旬老人，有分析指出，這5名老人將會成為「習李新政」的絆腳石。
時政評論家孟淵沛：「現在共產黨是求穩、怕亂，是第一位的，所以把這些人塞進去，而且他們是老人說的算，前任說的算，包括胡錦濤連軍委主席都沒連任，很多人說他是自願的，不是！這完全是權力鬥爭的結果。」
時政評論家孟淵沛還認為，上一屆9位常委，目地就是擴大江派的力量，大過胡錦濤，如今又改回7常委，也是為了把李源潮和汪洋擠掉，箝制習近平。不管常委9位還是7位，都是江澤民說的算。
孟淵沛：「中國的政治非常黑暗，是老人決定了新人，死人決定了活人，在這種情況下，就是誰保守，誰沒有改革的理念，誰維護專制的利益誰選上。誰稍微有些開放的意識，不穩定的意識或一些言論他們會剔除的，所以現在的局面是非常糟糕的一個局面。」
孟淵沛還說，現在，政治局常委裏的左派比重較大，將會影響習近平的政策方向。他認為，上屆溫家寶還能口頭表態，現在，可能連說話的人都沒了。
中國歷史學者章立凡在接受《德國之聲》採訪時表示，習近平在保守勢力夾持下很難前行，如果黨政繼續不分，一切由黨來主導，有可能將來官方和民間各行其事，分道揚鑣。
而時事評論員李善鑒向《新唐人》表示﹕
李善鑒：「中共的這個政治它不是說一、兩個開明的人能夠解決的問題。它的問題在於它的整個制度就是錯的。可以強調一點就是很邪惡的。那麼在這種制度下幾個開明的人想做一些事情他也做不了。也就是這個制度它還會延續下去，直到它徹底的毀滅。」
《德國之聲》綜合德國媒體的報導指出，制度將牽制中共新領導人。報導說，「一個人怎麼才能從國家利益出發，制服並打破那些國有 經濟巨頭？」而，「習近平至今的公開表態，甚至連稍稍偏離一點黨的共識的影子都沒有。」
台灣《商業週刊》雜誌報導，中國近一年超過20萬起大規模抗議與罷工事件，舉世聞名的官員貪污，為了建設不惜代價，造成一年75萬人因污染死亡的不良記錄。高漲的民怨，讓這群以中共新總書記習近平、國務院總理李克強為主的中國新領導班子，必須靠著不斷成長的經濟，來維持統治的合理性。
而在胡溫交棒給習李的時候，正逢中國經濟發展遭遇重大瓶頸，出口重創、通膨壓力、房市泡沫等內外併發症，還有貧富差距拉大，社會衝突矛盾不斷上升，政治腐敗，加上沒有言論、集會和信仰自由，這些都是老百姓質疑中共執政合法性的主因，也是習李無可迴避的治理課題。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬
Issues Former Administration left to Xi Jinping will be Intractable and Thorny
After the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress,
members of the Politburo Standing Committee changed from 9 to 7.
Hu Jintao will no longer be Chairman of
the Central Military Commission which shows that
“Xi-Li” has taken the power completely under a compromise
of the CCP factions.
However, there’s rumor that Xi and Li are representatives
of “princeling” and “Youth League”.
Especially Li Keqiang was said to be the most favorable
successor of Hu Jintao, but that he had to let Xi Jinping take the lead.
Whether Xi-Li can cooperate in future, can ignore
the impact of factions struggling, can surpass Hu-Wen?
one needs to wait for the answer to that question.
Some German media reported that within the CCP system,
it will be hard for Xi Jinping to achieve very much by himself.
Analysts have pointed out that no matter who or
which faction rules,
the pressure on the CCP will be increased
if it doesn’t solve the problem of corruption,
the huge gap between rich and poor and the issue of
freedom of speech and expression.
The new CCP leadership was called “Political Enemy Team”
because they have different opinions on strategy,
belong to different factions,
have grudges and conflicts of interests.
Among the 7 members of Politburo Standing Committee,
apart from Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, the other 5 are in their 60s.
Analysts have pointed out that these 5 old men
will be stumbling blocks for Xi-Li.
Meng Yuanpei, a political commentator,
“Now, the CCP is seeking stability. It’s afraid of chaos.
Stability is its first priority.
That’s the reason why they have this new leadership.
In the CCP, the old people make the decision, the former
leaders make the choice which includes Hu Jintao’s fate.
Hu didn’t take another term as Chairman of
the Central Military Commission.
Many people said it is Hu’s decision.
No! It is the result of the factions struggling.”
Meng Yuanpei thought the reason why
in the last generation change,
the members of Standing Committee changed from 7 to 9,
to expand the power of Jiang Zemin’s faction.
Now, the reason why it’s changed back to 7 is to get rid of
Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang, this will make it easier to limit Xi Jinping’s power.
No matter if the members are 7 or 9,
the arrangement has been decided by Jiang Zemin.
Meng Yuanpei: “China’s politic is very dark. It’s old leaders
decide the successors, the dead decide for the living.
In this scenario, the one who is conservative,
who doesn’t have the concept of reform,
who safeguards the interests of authority
will take the lead.
The one who has a slightly open mind and ideas
or is considered unstable or whose speeches are too free
That person will be pushed aside.
So, the current situation is in a mess.”
Meng Yuanpei also said that there’re more leftists in the
current Standing Committee and this could impact Xi Jinping’s strategy.
He thinks there’s Wen Jiaobao who can speak a little bit
in the former Committee, but right now there’s nobody who dares speak.”
Zhang Lifan is a Chinese historian. He told Deutsche Welle
that in the grip of conservative forces, Xi Jinping will find it hard to move forward.
If China is continuing to combine Party and Regime,
is continuing to lead by the Party,
it’s possible that the civil will do different from the official,
and will separate from it in future.
Li Shanjian, a political commentator told NTD:
Li Shanjian: ”CCP’s politic can’t be solved by one or two
open leaders. The issue is that the whole system is wrong.
There’s one thing that can be emphasized,
it’s that it’s definitely evil.
Under this kind of system, even open-minded people
can’t do what they want or need to do.
In other words, the system will continue to be ineffective
and hampered until the CCP is destroyed completely.”
Deutsche Welle combined the reports of German media and
reported that the system will limit the new CCP leaders.
It reported: ”How can a person control and break the state-owned
economic giants, and just act in the country’s interest?”
Up until now, Xi hasn’t taken any actions or decisions
that have deviated from Party policy.”
The Taiwan Business Week magazine reported that in the
last year, there have been more than 200,000 cases of large-scale protests and strikes in China.
Official corruption in China is world-famous.
There’s also a record of the regime encouraging construction,
whilst not caring about pollution which led to 750,000 deaths in one year alone.
High public discontent will force the new leadership
headed Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang
to rely on the growing economy
to maintain the legality of its rule.
However, when Hu-Wen transferred the power to Xi-Li,
the Chinese economy suffers a serious bottleneck with problematic export figures,
huge inflationary pressure, a bubble in the real estate market,
a huge gap between rich and poor, increasing social conflict,
political corruption, plus no freedom of speech or assembly
and no freedom of belief, and so on.
All of those are points that people have mentioned
in questioning the legality of the CCP’s rule.
All of these issues are political topics that Xi-Li
will not be able to avoid dealing with during their rule.
