【新唐人2012年11月17日訊】隨著前中共總書記胡錦濤宣佈中共十八大閉幕，他的政治生涯也到了盡頭，習近平、李克強正式登場。不過令人大跌眼鏡的是，胡「裸退」的同時，在新常委中只有一名是他的人馬。但有德國媒體報導說，胡錦濤輸了人事，卻贏了「立儲權」。不過，很多學者並不認同，請看以下報導。
從中共11月15號官方公布的「十八大」7名政治局常委名單顯示，常委中只有李克強屬於胡錦濤的團派，而江派的張德江、張高麗、俞正聲、劉雲山都入常，人們傳說的「江胡鬥」並沒有出現。甚至「英國廣播公司（BBC）」引述美國「布魯金斯協會」高級研究員李成的話說，7個人裡6個或者5個半都是江澤民的人，這是一個缺乏平衡的政治局常委。
旅美中國民運人士蔡桂華：「十八大召開以後，江澤民根本不把胡錦濤放在眼裡，你做你的報告，他就撤退，也不大尊重他。這說明甚麼，胡錦濤做了軍委主席、黨的中央總書記，其實做的很窩囊的，他整個一個執政過程，就是個很窩囊的過程。」
79年創辦大陸「民主牆」的蔡桂華還指出，江的軍委辦公室在十八大前剛剛被封掉，他的權力一直延續到現在，胡對江一直是小媳婦的角色，對江派人物也是唯唯諾諾，十八大的這種人事安排也就不奇怪了。
而資深媒體人笑蜀認為，胡最大的毛病，是沒有承擔作為最高統治者必須承擔的政治責任，對問題和危機完全不敢面對，也沒有解決的誠意及能力，尤其對特殊利益集團過於放縱。
實際上，胡錦濤從1982年的12大就進入了中共中央委員會，從14大就是政治局常委，自16大開始擔任總書記，在中共權利中心呆了30年。
《自由亞洲電臺》指出，思想比較開明的胡派大將汪洋、李源潮這些人出局後，人們對保守色彩濃重的新常委班子，在解決歷史問題和政治開明方面，已經不抱太多期望了。而十八大前是很樂觀的。
獨立評論員邢天行：「從民間的呼聲對這次十八大常委的人選，普遍是非常的不滿：認為中共連內部的改革，現在連一個姿態都不敢做了，所以對中共是徹底的失望。原來民間還有一部分人對它有指望的，也已經站在徹底的要對中共對著幹一個角度上了。」
笑蜀指出，中共體制內的頑固勢力都是不懂現代文明，尤其不懂憲政民主的文盲。如果他們主動改革是對他們自己好，中國的轉型成本就低，他們就越容易救贖自己。如果他們不主動改，中國還是要轉型，他們就完全沒法向自己的人民、向歷史交代。
但中國政治學者陳子明在《德國之聲》撰文說，雖然胡錦濤輸了十八大的人事，但胡錦濤贏得了「隔代立儲」權。他說，「這一次胡錦濤得以隔過習近平，立胡春華為『王儲』，而根據既定的安排，六〇後的胡春華和孫政才這一次『進局』，下一次『入常』，中共二十大則成為總書記和總理的接班人。」
不過，旅美中國民運人士瀋源表示，現在就預測5年後的事情太早，中共有沒有那麼長的壽命也很難說。瀋源認為，中國已經到了必須變革的前夜。
旅美中國民運人士瀋源：「要依靠他們中共這些所謂的當政者良心發現，來提出政改，考慮到還政於民，我覺得還是可能性是不大的，這種估計還太早了一點。」
獨立評論員邢天行也指出，目前中國貧富差距巨大、貪污腐敗橫行、社會極度不公，經濟面臨崩潰、失業率高升等，老百姓被逼得多次起來反抗。一切都表明，中共到了崩潰的邊沿了，這與歷代王朝滅亡時的境況極其相似。
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/周天
Hu Jintao Lost Or Won?
Hu Jintao, former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General
Secretary announced the close of the 18th Congress.
This indicated his political era is ended.
Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang had officially taken the role.
Strangely, only one seat in the new Standing Committee
belongs to Hu’s ally.
German media reported that Hu lost the battle in Standing
Committee but had a victory to arrange new leaders.
However, many scholars disagree.
Let’s take a look.
Amidst the seven members of the Standing Committee,
only Li Keqiang belongs to Hu Jintao’s faction.
However Jiang Zemin’s faction: Zhang Dejiang, Zhang Gaoli,
Yu Zhengsheng and Liu Yunshan took the seats.
Jiang and Hu’s power struggle didn’t happen as expected.
The BBC cited Li Cheng, a senior researcher
at Brookings Institute.
Li said six of seven seats belong to Jiang Zemin’s faction,
it shows the imbalance of the Standing Committee.
Cai Guihua, democracy activist in the US: “Jiang Zemin has
looked down on Hu Jintao since the 18th Congress.
When Hu did his remarks, Jiang left with no respect.
What’s the reason?
Hu took the role as Party General Secretary
and Chairman of the Military Commission,
but he was in a awkward position as
his entire political era is a poor performance.”
Cui Guihua, founder of Democracy Wall said that Jiang
Zemin’s Central Military Commission Office was removed right before the 18th Congress.
Jiang’s influence has continued to the present day.
Hu had played a small role in front of Jiang,
including Jiang’s faction.
Thus it isn’t surprising how the personnel arrangement of
the 18th Party Congress is.
Senior media person Xiao Shu believes Hu’s biggest issue
is not fulfilling his political responsibility as top leader.
He didn’t dare to face the problems and crises.
He is incapable and lacks sincerity to resolve the problems,
especially unrestraint of his interests group.
Hu entered the Central Committee in 1982 12th Party Congress.
He then had a seat at Standing Committee in 14th Party Congress.
in the 16th Party Congress he became Party General Secretary.
Hu spent 30 years in central government.
Radio Free Asia reported that Hu’s allies Wang Yang and Li
Yuanchao were kicked out.
It was over historical problems and political reform and
people lost confidence in the new Standing Committee.
However, before the 18th Party Congress,
situation is different.
Xing Tianxing, independent commentator: “People are not
not happy about the name lists of the Standing Committee.
They believe that the CCP can’t handle its internal reform,
or dare to show a single sign of reform.
They are completely disappointed in the CCP.
Some people dreamed the CCP would change, but
now totally changed their mind to the opposite.”
Xiao Shu stated that those stubborn forces in CCP’s system
actually have no idea about modern civilization.
They are especially illiterate on constitutional democracy.
They don’t understand that political reform can only help them.
If they take action to create political reform, the cost would
be lower for China to complete the transition to democracy.
Thus, it’s easier to rescue themselves.
If they don’t take the initiative to perform political reform,
China will still experience the transition.
If so, how can they explain themselves to the
Chinese people and to the history?
Chen Zimin, Scholar in China’s affairs, published an article
in “Voice of Germany”.
He stated in his article that Hu Jintao lost in the personnel
arrangement in the 18th National Congress.
However, Hu gained the power of nominating China’s
next leadership after Xi Jinping’ term.
He said that Hu Jintao was able to nominate Hu Chunhua
as the successor of Xi Jinping.
Based on the arrangement, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zheng,
born in 1960s, have been elected into the Politburo.
They will be elected into the Standing Committee next time.
In the 20th Nation Congress, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zheng
will be CCP’s General Sectary and Premier Minister.
However, democracy advocate Shen Yuan stated that
it’s too early to predict what will happen in five years.
It’s hard to say whether or not the CCP can last that long.
Shen Yuan thinks that it’s right before revolution
comes within China.
Shen Yuan: “It’s almost impossible to rely on the conscience
of CCP’s senior authority to perform political reform.
It’s very unlikely they would return the power to people.”
Independent Commentator Xin Tianxing also pointed out
that the rich and poor are polarized, officials corrupt,
economy collapsing and unemployment increasing.
Ordinary people are forced to stand up and
protest again and again.
All of these show that the CCP is on the edge of collapsing.
It’s extremely similar to all other historical dynasties when
they were about to come to the end.
