【新唐人2012年10月22日訊】中共十年一次的政治權力交替名單，即將在十八大上揭曉，全球各大媒體都在關注誰將成爲中共下一代領導層的核心成員。日前，「英國廣播公司（BBC）」發表署名傅安思（Angus Foster）的文章，其中列舉了中共官員能夠「成功爬上權力最高位」的7大因素。一起來看看專家的評論分析。
BBC記者在《如何爬上中共最高權力巔峰》一文中寫道，中共即將揭秘的下一代領導人，幾乎都是逐級晉陞的職業政客。在世界上最嚴格的威權體系之一的中共體制內，要「成功」攀上權力高峰有7大關鍵因素，包括早起步，派系選擇，到艱苦地區「鍍金」和「冷酷無情」等。
文章把中共比作世界上最大的「私人俱樂部」，需要在印有鎚子、鐮刀的黨旗前面發誓才能加入。獲取黨員資格後，才能接觸到不公開的信息，接近權力中心，並有機會遇到對仕途有幫助的人。
文章認爲，如今的中共是一個糾纏不清的官僚主義體系，它要求「徹底服從」。黨對政治和媒體的絕對控制權，意味著任何錯誤都可能使仕途終結。不跟從中央的步伐將付出慘重的代價。
同時，所謂的「靠山」，決定了能爬多高。比如「太子黨」可以在父母關係網的幫助和保護下，取得晉升的優勢。
時事評論員劉國華：「中共領導人的出現，爬到最上層，可以說是跟民主完全脫節的。中共領導人要想脫穎而出，最主要的是強調所謂的政治路綫。就是你跟的這個人對不對，你跟的人對了，你就可以獲得提拔。至於說國家發展，老百姓的想法，這些都是非常次要的。」
文章提到，通常未來的領導人需要有「在艱苦地區」工作的經歷。比如胡錦濤曾在西藏四年，目前中共最年輕的政治新星—-49歲的胡春華，也在內蒙古擔任黨委書記。
另外，性別也很重要。因爲從來沒有女性進入政治局常委。在現有24人組成的政治局委員中，也只有劉延東一人是女性。
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤認爲，文章所提到的這些關鍵因素，需要「有選擇性」的看待，因爲有些並不是必備條件。相反，熟悉和善於利用共產黨的「鬥爭文化」卻很重要。
美「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤：「比如説講到要比較安靜，到艱苦的地方去，在艱苦的地方他也不是真的去吃苦。所以我覺得這些東西只能說是調侃，如果真的正確，也只能在一個有選擇的，在某些方面才能做這7點，在其他方面正好要反著這7點。」
文章最後還引述美國「克萊蒙特•麥肯納學院」教授裴敏欣的話說：「如果你被他們排擠出權力圈外，他們要確保你永遠回不來。你不僅僅只是失去工作，他們不會放過你的家人並搞臭你的名聲。」這就是中共的政治制度的「冷酷無情」。
時事評論員林子旭：「結合中共的實際情況，我覺得這裏面就第七條，冷酷無情說的比較準確，在中共的這個體制裡想要往上爬就是需要冷血，像薄熙來為了保全自己可以暴打他的父親，鄧小平為了保住中共的權利可以向手無寸鐵的學生開槍等等。」
時事評論員林子旭還表示，在中共這樣一個逆淘汰的體制裡，不斷的壓抑人性去服從所謂「黨的利益」，這才是中共官員能夠向上爬的關鍵所在。
另外一位時事評論員劉國華則認爲，隨著中共「活摘人體器官」等滅絕人性的反人類暴行不斷在國際社會曝光，不久的將來，這些罪惡和血債，必然會像二戰時候的「納粹」一樣，遭到清算和嚴懲。他呼籲更多的普通民衆和中共官員認清中共的殘暴邪惡本性，加入「三退」大潮才是正道。
採訪/常春 編輯/李明飛 後製/蕭宇
How to Get to the Top of CCP Regime? BBC States Seven Factors
Every ten years, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
transition of power takes place in the 18th National Congress.
Media internationally are watching who will be
the core members of the CCP’s next leadership.
Recently, the BBC published an
article written by Angus Foster.
It listed 7 factors that help CCP officials
climb up in the regime power structure.
The BBC article “How to get to the top of China’s
Communist Party”, states that
the Chinese Communist Party is about
to unveil the country’s next generation of leaders.
Almost all will be career politicians
who have risen through the ranks.
There are 7 critical factors that help one succeed in
one of the world’s most rigid authoritarian systems.
These factors are “start young”, “choose your faction”,
“study morality”, “don’t flaunt it”, “be male”, “be ruthless”.
The article says that the CCP is like
the largest private club in the world.
All new members have to swear the Party oath before the
Party’s flag – a yellow hammer and sickle on red background.
Membership can bring high status and significant privileges.
These include access to restricted information and a chance
to meet people who can help with your job prospects.
The article states that nowadays, leaders have to climb
a tangled bureaucracy, which demands total obedience.
The party’s absolute control of politics and the media
means that any mistake could be your last.
If one doesn’t follow the party line closely,
he would have to pay a prohibitive price.
The most important factor in how far you rise is your patron,
or kaoshan in Chinese – meaning the mountain you rely on.
This is easy for children of high-level officials.
They have the help and protection
of their parents’ networks of influence.
Commentator Liu Guohua: “The way a CCP leader becomes
a senior authority totally goes again democracy.
Whether a CCP leader can stand out or not
mainly depends on the political route he follows.
In other words, it depends on if
one has chosen the right faction.
If you made a right choice, you will be promoted.
With regards to development of the country or opinions
of ordinary people, those things are far less important.”
The article also points out that China』s future leaders
need to have done time far from the comforts of Beijing.
President Hu Jintao spent four years in Tibet,
which is seen as a particularly arduous posting.
One of the rising stars among China’s younger leaders,
49-year-old Hu Chunhua, is serving time in Inner Mongolia.
In addition, being male is also a critical factor.
No woman has ever reached the Politburo’s Standing
Committee, its highest decision-making body.
In the wider, 24-strong Politburo, only
one woman, Liu Yandong, has a seat.
Wang Juntao, expert in Politics at Columbia
University, thinks that the 7 factors mentioned in the article should be treated selectively.
Some of them are not necessary factors.
Actually, the familiarity of the CCP’s faction
struggles and the knowledge of taking advantage of them are very important.
Wang Juntao: “For example, when the CCP leaders
take office in arduous places, they don’t really experience the hardship of life over there themselves.
I think they just talk about it in this way.
In a certain way, you can meet all 7 factors.
In some circumstances, one might need
to do things opposite to the 7 factors.”
At the end of the article, it quoted Professor Pei Minxin.
“If you get pushed out of power, they make sure
you never come back. You don’t just lose your job.
They go after your family and destroy your name.”
This is the ruthlessness of the CCP political system.
Commentator Lin Zixu: ”Regarding the CCP’s actual situation,
among all 7 factors, I think being ruthless is most accurate.
In order to climb the CCP’s regime system,
one has to be ruthless. Just like Bo Xilai.
He can beat his own father cruelly in order to protect himself.
Deng Xiaoping made the order to shoot weaponless
students, in order to maintain the CCP』s interest.”
Li Zixu also stated that “following the party’s interest”
by continuously oppressing one’s humanity is the key that CCP officials can climb up in the system.
Another commentator, Liu Guohua, thinks that with the
worldwide exposure of the inhumane live organ harvesting,
the CCP will be soon face justice and be severely punished.
This will be just like the justice the
Nazi’s faced after World War II.
Liu calls for ordinary people, and CCP officials, to recognize
the CCP’s atrocities, and quit from the CCP’s organizations.
