【新唐人2012年9月26日訊】最近中國官媒爆出薄熙來打王立軍耳光後，引起外界議論，人們開玩笑說：「那是一記導致薄熙來下臺的耳光」，如果沒有那記耳光導致王立軍出逃美領館，薄熙來有可能躋身政治局常委，將中國帶進又一次「文革」的深淵。不過，有人針對這種說法，從6方面闡述了薄熙來倒臺的必然性。
中國政情分析人士牛淚撰寫了《薄熙來必然倒臺的六個理由》。他從胡溫對薄熙來的態度、和習近平對薄熙來的態度、以及其他政治局常委對薄熙來的態度等6個方面，分析了薄熙來從上到下失去支持及倒臺的必然性。
曾經在大陸教授歷史學的旅美民主人士劉因全認為，牛淚的分析很有道理。他說，薄熙來仗著「紅二代」的所謂優勢，養成了趾高氣揚的性格，這是他敢於打王立軍耳光的心理基礎，也是招致他倒臺的重要原因。
原大陸歷史學教授劉因全：「因為薄熙來是太子黨出身，他非常非常狂妄，他認為這個江山是他老子打下來的，理所當然的應該接老子的班，應該掌權，在這種心理的支配下，他不把平民出身的官員放在眼裡，甚至認為他們是我們的家奴 。」
牛淚指出，薄熙來被「明升暗降」貶到重慶，就表明他在胡面前是個不受歡迎的人物。對於薄熙來在重慶的「唱紅打黑」，溫家寶提出過要防止「封建殘餘和文革遺毒」的警告。
劉因全也認為，胡錦濤和溫家寶的父親深受文革的迫害，必定「不會提拔」喜歡血腥文革的薄熙來。
據牛淚分析，習近平和薄熙來是中共「雙保險」接班安排下，所謂「備胎制」的產物，只要有一個上位，另一個必定廢除，因此習近平也不會容下薄熙來。
劉因全說，習近平和薄熙來除了政治上的競爭關係外，習近平的爸爸習仲勳，和薄熙來的爸爸薄一波本來也是仇家，習仲勳因支持胡耀邦而受到薄一波的打擊。
劉因全：「他們的老子就是鬥的你死我活的，他們的兒子自然對他們老子鬥的你死我活的這件事情是記憶猶新的，當時他們已經是成年人了。兩個人的老子當時就不是一派的，習仲勳為人比較好，是開明派的代表人物，薄一波是典型勢利小人，兩個人老子就不是一路貨，他們的兒子怎麼會完全一致呢？鬥爭是必然的。」
牛淚認為，在政治局常委中，除了排名老九的周永康，其他未必都是薄的鐵桿盟友。而在中共退下來的政治老人中，除了江澤民，沒有支持薄熙來的。
劉因全：「有一些別有用心的人，像江澤民他是因為法輪功問題，薄熙來一直緊跟他嘛。除非這些人他們會對薄熙來賞識，會提拔。薄熙來在其他政治局裡面也沒有人緣，他這種作風，他誰都瞧不起，連胡溫都不放在眼裡，他這種心態，一定在其他政治局委員裡留下很惡劣的印象。」
劉因全表示，薄熙來利用唱紅，來向紅二代暗示「把權力拿下來」，太子黨們「為對付平民出身的官員」，可能暫時的抱團，但在爭奪席位時就會打得不可開交。
牛淚也指出，薄熙來利用民眾對貪污腐化和分配不公等社會問題的不滿，在唱紅打黑中滿足了一部分人的心理訴求。但絕大部分人能認清薄熙來在重慶當「土皇帝」，踐踏法治精神和程序的極權統治。
劉因全：「絕大多數的老百姓都受盡了共產黨的這種折磨，受盡了毛澤東的這種迫害，薄熙來再去舉起毛澤東那個破旗來，在那裏搖旗吶喊，怎麼能得到他們的擁戴呢？不可能嘛，上層有些人看到民意這樣，也不會支持薄熙來。」
劉因全規勸下一屆執政者們：記住「水可載舟，亦可覆舟」。一定要傾聽人民的聲音，順應民意，來進行政治體制改革，還政於民。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/王明宇
The Downfall of Bo Xilai: Accidental or Inevitable?
Recently, the CCP official media broke word that Bo Xilai
slapped Wang Lijun in the face, which elicited much discussion.
People joked: “Bo Xilai stepped down with a slap in the face.”
Without the slap, Wang Lijun may not have fled to the United
States Consulate, and Bo Xilai may have become one
of the Politburo Standing Committee members, which could
have brought another culture revolution to China.
However, according to this argument, somebody listed six
reasons for the inevitability of the Bo Xilai’s downfall.
Niu Lei, a China political analyst, wrote an article titled,
“Six reasons for the inevitability of Bo Xilai’s downfall.”
After analyzing Hu – Wen’s attitude toward Bo,
Xi Jinping’s attitude towards Bo, and other Politburo Standing
Committee members’ attitudes towards Bo, he believes that
Bo Xilai’s loss of support and step down was inevitable.
U. S. democrat Liu Yinquan, who once taught history
in Mainland China, thinks Niu Lei’s analysis makes sense.
He commented that Bo Xilai relied on the advantage
of the so-called “second generation of red” and developed a character of arrogance.
It is his psychological foundation to slap Wang Lijun’s face
and the reason for his downfall.
Liu Yinquan, former history professor in mainland: “Bo Xilai
is one of the Princelings and he is very presumptuous.
He believes that his father beat down the country and
certainly he should take the position of his father.
Under this kind of psychological domination, he looked down
on officials with civilian backgrounds and even thought of them as his slaves.”
Niulei pointed out that Bo Xilai’s “banishment” to Chongqing
means he is an unpopular figure before Hu Jintao.
Due to Bo’s “Red Songs, Strike Black” movement in Chongqing,
Wen Jiabao put forward a warning about preventing another cultural revolution.
Liu Yinquan thinks both the fathers of Hu Jintao and Wen
Jiabao felt the persecution of the Cultural Revolution.
Therefore, they would not promote Bo Xilai,
who is partial to the bloody cultural revolution.
According to the analysis of Niu Lei, both Xi Jinping and Bo
Xilai belong to the “double insurance” succession arrangements of the so-called “spare tire” system of the CCP.
As long as there is a higher-level , the other must be repealed.
Therefore, Xi Jinping would not have gotten along well with Bo Xilai.
Liu Yinquan said that in addition to the political competition
between Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai, Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping’s
father, and Bo Yibo, father of Bo Xilai are also mutual enemies.
Xi Zhongxun was hit by Bo Yibo due to his support of Hu Yaobang.
Liu Yinquan: “Their fathers fought against each other a lot,
and both Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai must remember the fights, as they were adults at that time.
Their fathers are not in the same group,
they are totally different.
Xi Zhongxun is a better man and can be seen
as the representative of the liberals.
And Bo Yibo is a typical snob. So how could their sons
get along well? They must fight.”
Niulei thinks that besides Zhou Yongkang, other members
in the Politburo Standing Committee are not necessarily supposed to be Bo Xilai’s loyal allies.
Liu Yinquan: “Some people with ulterior motives, for example,
Jiang Zemin, wanted to promote Bo Xilai due to his following Jiang’s order to persecute Falun Gong.
Otherwise Bo Xilai followed repressive policies
and was not popular in the Politburo.
Due to his style, he looked down on everyone including
Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao,
and this state of mind must leave a very bad impression
on other Politburo members.”
Liu Yinquan said that Bo Xilai’s use of the “red songs”
movement to imply the second red generation to win power.
The Princelings may temporarily get together to deal with
the officials with civilian background’s but they must fight for seats.
Niulei pointed, Bo Xilai just used public dissatisfaction
with social problems such as corruption and unfair
distribution to his advantage and he satisfied some people
in the “Red Songs, Strike Black” movement.
But most people recognized that Bo wanted to be the Tyrant
of Chongqing, and his movement was a kind of totalitarianism trampling the rule of law.
Liu Yinquan: “Most people have suffered tremendously
at the hands of the CCP and Mao Zedong.
Therefore, how could Bo Xilai succeed by taking Mao Zedong
as a flag? No way.
Some upper people are aware of the public opinion and
will not support Bo.”
Liu’s advice for the next session of rulers is to remember
that “water can carry a boat, and can also capsize it.”
They must listen to the people and conduct political reform
to give the government back to the people.
