【新唐人2012年9月8日訊】與谷開來和王立軍案無法切割的薄熙來，在王立軍數罪並罰和審理谷開來的案件中都沒有被提及，那麼作為「唱紅打黑」集團的頭麵人物——薄熙來未來的走向，成為外界關注的焦點，前幾天，又傳出中共皇儲——習近平遭刺傷背部。那麼，在中共各方勢力互相廝殺的過程中，會不會把中共一同殺倒？中共十八大到底還能不能召開？中共政權能不能形成第五代核心？而所謂第五代核心是誰？這些問題已經成為觀察中國局勢的專家們新的關注焦點。
谷開來殺害海伍德一案，從開庭到量刑，都沒有提到薄熙來，而起訴王立軍的四宗罪狀中，薄熙來的名字也沒有出現在官媒的報導中，關注中國問題的觀察人士不禁猜測：中共當局是否別有用意？也有評論人士認為：薄案會留給下任處理。
時事評論員華頗認為，胡錦濤拿下薄熙來樹立了權威，對原來指定的接班人習近平來說，如果只像處理前中共北京市委書記陳希同一樣，來處理薄熙來，則樹立不了習近平的權威。
時事評論員華頗：「習近平要樹立權威的話，說白了，就是殺掉薄熙來，才能樹立習的權威。不徹底解決薄熙來的話，那對習近平是一個非常大非常大的危險。因為現在社會的局勢非常動盪、內外交困，撤銷一切職務、不開除黨籍，以觀後效，薄熙來弄不好這個角色就跟當初的鄧小平一樣，那習近平就有可能做華國鋒第二。」
華頗說，從目前中共高層不尋常的人事異動，和習近平「爽約」希拉里等種種跡象來看，很多人都在質疑中共高層到底出了甚麼事。
華頗：「北戴河會議未必可以彌補黨內高層之間的裂痕，有可能使這種裂痕越來越大，並沒有使全黨團結起來，也不排除中共就要經歷一起…在薄王案之後，經受到新一輪的衝擊的可能性。」
政論家伍凡指出，現在中共高層鬥的一塌糊塗，連十八大怎麼開都不能確定。他說，前面傳出習近平背部被刺，所謂第五代核心還「前途未卜」。
政論家伍凡：「薄熙來在兩個案子中都沒提到，在我看來可能想減輕這個案子的實際的程度，現在要想的是胡溫、周永康、江澤民，怎麼鬥，這個鬥的結果會影響薄熙來的結果，中共高層鬥爭越來越激烈，三天之前，誰知道習近平有這麼個現象出來，習近平是活是死，你知道嗎？」
今年2月，王立軍闖入美領館，導致中共暗箱內鬥的黑幕再也無法掩蓋。
中國歷史學家李元華認為，中共內部已經沒有了共同的利益，各派只是利用共產黨這個旗號，攫取更多的利益、欺壓百姓。李元華表示，他們在為了自己利益拚殺的過程中，就會鬥垮共產黨。
中國歷史學家 李元華：「不管是要上位的還是即將離位的，都是為了保持自己的利益或攫取更多的利益，十八大做權利交接的時候，正是它政權相對來講最薄弱期，也是中共利益廝殺最激烈的時期，在這個過程中，要寄希望於某一派出於正義去做一些事情，這個跡象看不到，為了某一派利益下黑手的先例挺多。」
趙紫陽秘書鮑彤，在一篇「鮑彤評說薄熙來案」的文章中指出，薄熙來「唱紅打黑」超過「三個代表」，超過「四個堅持」。鮑彤認為，薄熙來把一黨專制的本質用「唱紅打黑」概括了出來：「唱紅」就是「順我者昌」﹔ 「打黑」就是「逆我者亡」。
鮑彤說：十八大一定要有一個選擇，它可以和薄熙來切割，也可以就切割一個薄，如果不和「唱紅打黑」切割，那麼它還是從帝制走向帝制，也就是一切照舊。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/周天
Unknown Factors Impact the 18th National People’s Congress
Bo Xilai, an important figure in both the Gu Kailai and
Wang Lijun cases, was not mentioned in their trials.
Bo Xilai’s future has become the focus of international media.
A few days ago, rumors began to spread
that Xi Jinping had been stabbed in the back.
Will the CCP destroy itself during the process
of various factions battling against each other?
Will the 18th National People’s Congress take place?
Will the CCP form a core power of the 5th generation?
Who will be in this so-called core of the 5th generation?
These questions have become
the focal point for China experts.
Through the Gu Kailai trial for the murder of Neil Heywood,
her husband Bo Xilai was not mentioned even once.
Bo Xilai’s name was also not mentioned
within the four alleged crimes of Wang Lijun.
Those who closely follow China issues can’t help
but wonder whether the CCP has other intentions?
Some critics also believe that Bo Xilai’s case
will be left for the next generation to handle.
Current Affairs Commentator Hua Po believes that Hu Jintao
has strengthened his authority by taking down Bo Xilai.
Xi Jinping will not be able to build his authority if the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) handles Bo Xilai in the same manner
that it handled former Beijing Party Secretary Chen Xitong.
Hua Po: “To put it openly, if Xi Jinping wants
to strengthen his authority, he has to kill Bo Xilai.
It is a large danger to Xi Jinping if Bo Xilai
is not taken care of completely.
The social situation is very volatile right now.
It is beset with difficulties internally and externally.
All levels are effected, so if Bo Xilai is not expelled
from the Party, the effects will be seen later on.
Bo Xilai’s role could be similar to that of Deng Xiaoping,
and Xi Jinping may become the next Hua Guofeng.”
Hua Po says that from observing the abnormal personnel
changes within the high levels of the CCP, and with
Xi Jinping missing a meeting with Hilary Clinton,
many people are wondering what has happened.
Hua Po: “The Beidaihe meetings may not be able to remedy
the rift between high level officials, and the divide may grow.
It did not unify the whole party, and does not exclude
the fact the CCP will possibly have to experience a new round of assaults after the Bo-Wang case.
Political commentator Wu Fan highlights that high level
CCP officials have fought into a huge mess.
It is not certain how the 18th National People’s Congress
will take place, as there are now rumors of Xi Jinping having been stabbed in the back.
There is a so-called “unknown future.”
Wu Fan: “Bo Xilai was not mentioned in both cases.
From what I see, [they] may want to decrease
the seriousness of this case.
One should think about how Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Zhou
Yongkang, and Jiang Zemin will fight, and how the result of this fight will influence the verdict on Bo Xilai.
The fighting is becoming more intense, and 3 days earlier,
who knew this would happen to Xi Jinping.
Do we know whether Xi Jinping is alive or dead?”
In February this year, Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. Consulate.
Dark infighting between CCP officials
could no longer be kept under cover.
China historian Li Yuanhua believes there
is no mutual benefit within CCP anymore.
Each faction is only using the Communist flag
to obtain more benefits for itself, and to suppress people.
Li expressed that in the process of them fighting
for their own benefits, the CCP will collapse.
Li Yuanhua: “It doesn’t matter who the ones are who will
now take on posts, or the ones who will leave their posts,
they are all trying to protect their own benefits.
They are trying to obtain more benefits during
the shift of power that is taking place at the 18th National People’s Congress.
This is when the CCP’s political power is at it’s weakest,
and also the most intense fighting takes place.
During this process, there is no sign of seeing any
hope of a faction acting out of righteousness.
It is more likely that these factions will act like mafia.
In an article, Zhao Ziyang’s secretary Bao Tong points out
that Bo Xilai’s “Sing Red and Crack Down on Black”
exceeded the ‘three representatives and four determinations’.
Bao Tong believes Bo Xiali has summed up the nature of one
party dictatorship through “Sing Red and Crack Down Black”.
“Sing Red” meana those who obey me will flourish,
“Crack Down Black” means those who disobey me will perish.
Bao Tong says that the 18th National People’s Congress
must have a choice so that it can cut itself from Bo Xilai.
Then it can separate everything of Bo Xilai.
If it does not separate itself from “Sing Red
and Crack Down Black”, then it is taking the old path from autocracy to autocracy.
