【新唐人2012年9月1日訊】繼廣東省委書記汪洋強調「黨紀」之後，中共中組部部長李源潮緊跟著重申胡錦濤「黨性」話題，而他們兩人，果然出現在最近曝光的一份十八大人事佈局的「七常委」名單中。自從薄熙來事件，揭開中共牌面下暗潮洶湧的爭鬥內幕之後，究竟下一屆領導班子出臺後，中共政壇又將如何演變？下面請看專家的分析。
廣東省委書記汪洋公開強調加強「黨性」修養，強化紀律觀念，指稱政治紀律是「緊箍咒」、是「高壓線」的話剛剛落下；中組部部長李源潮也重申胡錦濤「建設模範部門、打造過硬隊伍」的要求，他同時強調「講黨性、重品行、做表率」。外界認為他們兩人，與胡錦濤保持一致，並及時「迎合」、「靠攏」了習近平24號「黨建」問題的談話。
果然，在31號被曝光的十八大人事佈局名單中，李源潮任副國家主席﹔汪洋任中央紀委書記，兩人雙雙上榜。
中共下一屆常委名單，不斷為外界猜測﹔如今，十八大即將召開，常委的佈局也呼之慾出。如果曝光的名單不假，那麼，李克強，汪洋和李源潮這三人的「政治調性」，被認為一致支持胡溫;而薄熙來、周永康等「血債幫」江系人馬，外界則認為已難翻身。那麼，第五代領導班子上馬之後，被認為走中間路線的習近平，將來會抱「團」嗎？
對此，時事評論家橫河指出，中國整個經濟、政治、社會的矛盾，已處於臨界點，一旦爆發，政權就垮﹔中共政權如果再搞政治鬥爭，就垮的更快。
時事評論家橫河：「所以，選下一代領導人又是按照中共的規矩，就是選自己派系的或者是聽自己話的，或者是一直跟自己工作過的，這就是所謂團派的來歷。那麼，這樣選擇的人，不可能有很大的魄力。他怎麼敢動這個系統呢﹔他們最終是看著中共垮。」
橫河分析，中共這些所謂領導人派系，可以隨時調整﹔因為，每個人有各自的利益集團和個人利益。
橫河：「但是，有一個派系就是當時江澤民傳下來的一個『幫派』，是為了維護他們自己集團的利益，和不被清算才組建起來的。再到下一代呢，如果沒有一個重大的血案，沒有重大的人權侵犯的大案，那麼，他們不大可能會抱成團，來防止自己和他們的後代家屬不被清算。因為在最高領導層已經達成協定，到政治局常委這一級一般都不清算了。」
時政觀察人士華頗觀察指出，習近平非常隱晦自己的觀點。因此，一切謎底要等他上臺揭曉。
時政觀察人士華頗：「他不可能公開闡明自己的觀點，和組織自己的班底，這是中國政治文化的一個傳統。這個人的真正面目，只有他上臺之後才能顯現出來。7.23胡錦濤的講話，是為將來定了調子，就是科學發展觀部分，他變相的堵死了習近平將來有產生自己東西的路子。」
華頗分析，胡錦濤為保證自己的思想延續，也相應的在人事佈局上做了一個調整，指定自己的衣缽傳人，進一步清洗了江派的力量。
華頗：「所以，將來習怎麼走，是不是胡錦濤這個科學發展觀；如果習是真心擁護，真心的買帳，問題不大﹔如果習另有自己的打算，我想中國政壇將來還會產生一些變動。問題是，中國現代的社會矛盾衝突非常嚴重。這個時候，習一上來就要辦一些實實在在的事情，來收取民心。」
不過，橫河指出，中共十八大班底是七人或九人、人事如何佈局，都解決不了中國目前的政治問題。唯一的可能就是，其中有人敢於學「戈爾巴喬夫」，登高一呼解體中共，這是一個最好的選擇。
採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/孫寧
Will New CCP Top Leadership Follow Hu Jintao’s Line?
Guangdong Party Chief Wang Yang has stressed
the need to enforce Party discipline.
Li Yuanchao, Central Organization Department
Minister of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) later reaffirmed Hu Jintao』s political requirement.
Both Wang and Li appeared on a list of seven names
of members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee.
The list was recently leaked unofficially.
In the face of intensified infighting, what direction will
the CCP regime head in with its new top leadership team?
Let’s see what the experts can tell us.
Wang Yang has publicly emphasized to CCP
members the need to cultivate the “Party spirit”.
There is a need to strengthen political discipline.
Li Yuanchao restated Hu Jintao』s speech, “to built up
exemplary departments and qualified party member teams”.
Li Yuanchao highlighted the need “to be Party-spirit minded,
to be well-behaved and to set a good example”.
Observers think that both Li and Wang
are following the line of Hu Jintao.
Wang and Li’s remarks were deemed timely
for “catering" and “approaching" Xi Jinping』s recent speech on Party construction.
The list of names of the top CCP leadership team
for the 18th Party Congress was exposed on August 31.
Li Yuanchao appeared on the list as Vice President.
Wang Yang appeared as Chief of the Central
Discipline Inspection Commission.
Speculations on the new generation
of the CCP top leadership continues.
As the 18th Party Congress is approaching, Li Keqiang,
Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao have political minds in common
and are all considered to be on Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s side.
It is thought that the blood-debt faction, under Jiang Zemin’s
clique, and represented by Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang, will find it difficult to rise to power again.
Will Xi Jinping, after taking office, be united with these three?
Critic Heng He observed that the clashes existing in China’s
economy, politics and society have arrived at a tipping point.
Once it explodes, the CCP regime will collapse.
A quicker demise would be seen if the regime
continues with its political struggle, says Heng He.
Heng He: “Following CCP customs, the incumbent leader
usually picks his successor from his own faction,
or the person follows his words or his minor.
So those selected are unlikely to have unusual capabilities.
How will he dare to change this systems operation?
So they will end up witnessing the CCP’s collapse."
Heng He says that the CCP factions
can be adjusted when needed.
This is because the top CCP leaders are linked to their own
interest groups, and have their own individual interests.
Heng He: “But a faction, led by Jiang Zemin,
was established to safeguard their own group interests and to escape being punished by law.
The faction members possibly wouldn’t be united
if it was not for having committed serious massacres, and major human rights violations.
In reality, the CCP top leadership has come to terms
with the fact that the Politburo Standing Committee leaders are exempt from punishment."
Political observer Hua Po noticed that Xi Jinping
has scarcely expressed his point of view.
All the answers will only be unveiled after he takes office.
Hua Po: “He cannot openly clarify his own point of view
and select his own team.
This is a tradition observed in CCP politics.
His true colors won’t be shown until he takes office.
Hu Jintao’s “7.23-talk” sets the tone for the next leadership.
That is, the concept of scientific development.
Hu has indirectly blocked the possibility for Xi Jinping
to follow his own idea in the future.”
Hua Po analyzes that Hu Jintao wants to keep his own
ideology continuing by appointing his own successors.
Hu’s arrangement of personnel has further
reduced the power of Jiang’s faction.
Hua Po: “So let’s wait and see what Xi Jinping will do.
Will it be Hu Jintao’s scientific development concept, or not?
If Xi really follows Hu, there won’t be big problems.
If Xi has his own plans, I expect further
changes will occur in China’s politics.
The current issue in China is very sharp
social conflicts over various social factors.
On this point, once Xi Jinping comes to office, he is expected
to do some real things to gain the people’s support."
Heng He points out that whether it’s down-sizing of the CCP
Politburo Standing Committee or appointing new personnel,
this cannot truly solve the current political problems in China.
Heng He suggests that the only and the best way out
is to emulate the actions of Mikhail Gorbachev.
That is, to publicly announce the disintegration of the CCP.
