【新唐人2012年8月23日訊】香港媒體21號發表文章，指出十八大前的中國正面臨「內憂外患」，而中國的媒體卻有意不提。但是評論家指出，不僅是媒體，大陸官方也不敢面對這些年執政造成的結果，只能抱著僥倖心理，抱著「炸彈」玩擊鼓傳花，而體制內官員都在逃離這艘即將瀋沒的大船。
香港《南華早報》的文章說，大陸現正面臨內憂外患，政治、外交、經濟和社會各方面都出現許多不明朗因素，包括中日釣魚島主權糾紛、內地經濟放緩，以及席捲全國的動盪和示威風潮。但是在十八大前，大陸媒體加緊歌功頌德，卻有意不提所面對的危機。
時事評論家橫河指出，這是因為，目前中國社會矛盾已經纍積到達了頂點，中共無法解決它執政這些年造成的結果。
時事評論家橫河：「在這個時候，它已經不可能進行任何改動了。它動一動，就會垮。這就是為甚麼，王立軍、薄熙來事件出來以後，它只是想維持現狀的來解決。它根本就不敢動，一動它就垮掉了。」
臨近十八大，體制內外沒有人不期待變革。中共一方面加緊控制言論，加強維穩；另一方面，又企圖通過領導層換屆，提升人民對自己的希望和信心，把政權「擊鼓傳花」傳下去，因此放出「十八大代表透明、公開選出」、「新領導班子令人『耳目一新』」、「政治體制改革」等等消息。
橫河指出，之前溫家寶雖然多次提到政改，但在中共現在的體制下，任何政治體制改革的方案都是無法貫徹的，因為動任何一步，都是損害既得利益集團的利益。
橫河：「政治體制要變化的，它不是說在這個結構裡面進行修正，而是說體制要改，就是開放黨禁、報禁、言論自由、信息自由、信仰自由、出版自由、組黨自由，這些一自由，中共馬上就垮掉了，所以它只能擊鼓傳花，一直到炸彈爆炸為止。」
政論家、《北京之春》雜誌主編胡平則認為，如果在89年「六四」時，當局願意政改，也許還可能有部分中共官員被民選選上，但現在的當局沒有魄力，也沒有意願去進行政治體制改革。
政論家胡平：「現在整個中共集團從上到下腐敗到這個地步，你過去欠人民的債那都不用說了，你包括『六四』，這之後又有『法輪功』，然後又對維權，對各方麵人士的打壓，所以你可以想一下，在這個時候如果實行政治開放，那共產黨相當一批官員，且不說他們政治上的罪惡，首先經濟上的貪污腐敗，被清算就是在所難免的。」
如果政治體制改革只是「海市蜃樓」，「畫餅充飢」，那中共要怎麼解決目前的「內憂外患」呢？胡平認為，現在的中共當局抱著一種僥倖心理，打算繼續靠著政治上的高壓，將政權這麼維持下去。
胡平：「所以它就還是繼續會打主意就是，一邊靠著政治上的高壓這麼維持下去，因為它畢竟覺得中國這麼大，你各種反對力量，很難是同時發生，所以它就可以分別去對付。這種做法最後的結果，不光是對中國，對這個國家，對人民是一個災難，另外呢，也使它共產黨這個統治集團更不能夠得到善終。」
橫河則指出，十八大只是中共高層內部的權力分配而已，分配的早晚對於整個中國社會發展的進程一點影響都沒有。而中共體制內的官員已經看到「動則亡黨，不動也亡黨」的結果，因此能做的就是自己做裸官、準備往外逃或者已經往外逃了，現在整個統治集團都在做這件事情。
採訪/易如 編輯/尚燕 後製/葛雷
CCP Can Only “Pass The Bomb"
Hong Kong media published an article that China is facing
both internal and external crises before the 18th Congress,
but the Chinese media do not mention anything about this.
Experts think, not only the media, but the government too
dares not face the consequences of their many years of rule.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can only’pass the bomb’
to each other, they cannot escape the sinking ship.
Hong Kong’South China Morning Post’ said on August 21,
that China is facing both internal and external difficulties.
And that many negative factors appear in politics,
diplomacy, economy and society, etc.
Like Diaoyu Island’s dispute, China’s economy slowdown,
and the protests throughout the country.
Yet, before the 18th Congress, the mainland media steps up
singing the old praises and mentions nothing about the crises.
Commentator Heng He thinks the reason is the accumulated
contradictions in the Chinese society from the CCP’s ruling.
Heng He: “Now, it (CCP) has no room to move anymore.
If it moves a little, it will collapse.
Thus after Wang Lijun’ and Bo Xilai’s incidents it only tries
to maintain the current situation, while solving the problem.
It dares not move, if it moves, it will collapse."
The time of CCP’s 18th Congress is approaching, thus inside
and outside the system nobody is expecting a change.
On one hand the CCP continuously controls
the public speech and focuses on maintaining stability.
On the other it tries to lift people’s hopes and confidence
in the new leaders’election, as to pass down the regime.
Thus they talk about “18th Congress representatives elected
transparently and publicly," “the new leadership’s new look," “political reform," etc.
Heng He pointed out that Wen Jiabao had mentioned
about political reform many times before.
However, under the CCP no political reform will work,
as any move will harm the benefits of its interests groups.
Heng He: “A new political system means change;
it is not about correcting internally the system and structure.
It is to change the political system through removing CCP’s
dogmas and control over media, speech, beliefs, etc.
This means the CCP will collapse,
thus it can only ‘pass the bomb’ until it explodes."
Political commentator and editor-in-chief of’Beijing Spring’
magazine, Hu Ping shared his views on the issue too.
Hu thinks June 4’89 event was a chance for political reform,
and some CCP officials could’ve been elected by the public.
But now the authorities neither have the courage,
nor the willingness to carry out a political system’reform.
Hu Ping: “Now the CCP as a group, from top to bottom are
corrupted to this point, not to mention the past debts it owes to the people, including the June 4th,
After which came the Falun Gong’s persecution,
then the suppression of the human rights activists, etc..
So, if they open the system, a large number of CCP officials,
will be liquidated, considering their economic corruption, not to mention their political sins."
If the political reform is just an illusion, how can the CCP
solve both current difficulties, internal and external?
Hu Ping believes, now the CCP hopes for luck, and intends
to continue relying on suppression to maintain the regime.
Hu Ping: “It (CCP) will continue to rely on high-suppression
of the people to maintain its’ regime status.
It believes China is a big country, all opposition forces can’t
rise simultaneously, so CCP can handle them individually.
The consequences of this would be disasters for the country
and the people, plus a bad end for the CCP."
Heng He believes the 18th Congress is just a re-distribution
of power within the CCP, it will not affect the entire process of China’s development.
The officials have seen that with or without making a move,
this party is coming to an end.
Thus their only option seems to be the ‘naked’official,
where they send their wealth and families overseas, and are on a ‘stand by’ to flee themselves too.
CCP officials have already been doing this for a while,
and now this trend is spreading to the entire ruling party.
